The Predicted Coronavirus Catastrophe Hasn’t Arrived In Sweden. What’s Next? -Forbes-

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Aug 10, 2019
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#1
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gabrie...xIj_nTfHozh2konsiTkUY1t59o3dHE6Q#44ad73473caf

As those paying attention already know, Sweden opted not to bring in harsh isolation and lockdown measures like the most of the world. Despite warnings from the Imperial College of London that a country the size of Sweden, (population appx 10.1 million) could expect around 60,000 deaths without mitigation efforts and ~30,000 with mitigation, this freedom loving Scandanavian democracy decided against the measures invoked in almost every other nation.

They didn't do nothing, they closed schools for students aged 16+, keeping elementary schools open because obviously workers need their kids looked after during the day. They also banned gatherings of 50+ and required all bar and restaraunt patrons to be seated, while urging (but not requiring) vulnerable people to isolate.

The death toll has been higher than neigbouring Scandinavian countries, but less than hotspots like Italy and Spain. Sweden's death count stands (as I write this) at about 2,400 and its overwhelmingly among the elderly and health compromised, like everywhere else in the world.

There have been criticisms that they could have done more to protect the elderly, a concern we've seen here in Canada where much harsher lockdown rules were brought in. 2,400 deaths so far is obviously tragic, death is never anything but, however its nowhere near the levels the Imperial College's model suggested.


x
 

Absolutely

Well-known member
Jul 23, 2018
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#2
So herd immunity is working.
California has had good numbers with herd immunity.
Shutdown is way overkill unless it REALLY IS A PANDEMIC.
Even then...I can watch out for myself with common sense and the blood of Jesus.
 
Aug 10, 2019
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#3
There is still some debate about whether or not herd immunity works....testing is showing that people who have been infected once are getting infected again. If neither infection results in any real illness then maybe antibodies aren't needed....why would the immune system need to develop a defense for an infection that doesn't make a person sick.

This thing is going to be with us for a long time, at least another year I'd guess and probably two...and while we are absolutely covered by the blood of Jesus, that doesn't mean we can't catch the virus and pass from this world to the next. But no matter whether its covid-19, cancer, a car accident or anything else....we're all suffering from a terminal illness called life and the mortality rate is 100%....but for Christians this life isn't the end...which of course is not a common world view.

Even some Christians are clinging so desperately to this life that they're willing to sacrifice their liberties and freedoms....fear does that to people. We need to remember the words of the 23rd Psalm.
 
Aug 10, 2019
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#4
If you're reading this EleventhHour aka EH, I've taken you off ignore, or block or whatever the term is. I know we disagree, and that's fine.....we have differing priorities, one is neither right or wrong. In Canada even our medical professionals cannot agree, Quebec is listening to the best advice of their medical pros and so is Ontario....and each province is adopting a different approach.
 

breno785au

Senior Member
Jul 23, 2013
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#5
There is still some debate about whether or not herd immunity works....testing is showing that people who have been infected once are getting infected again. If neither infection results in any real illness then maybe antibodies aren't needed....why would the immune system need to develop a defense for an infection that doesn't make a person sick.

This thing is going to be with us for a long time, at least another year I'd guess and probably two...and while we are absolutely covered by the blood of Jesus, that doesn't mean we can't catch the virus and pass from this world to the next. But no matter whether its covid-19, cancer, a car accident or anything else....we're all suffering from a terminal illness called life and the mortality rate is 100%....but for Christians this life isn't the end...which of course is not a common world view.

Even some Christians are clinging so desperately to this life that they're willing to sacrifice their liberties and freedoms....fear does that to people. We need to remember the words of the 23rd Psalm.

I understand what you're saying but I'm willing to temporarily sacrifice a part of my "liberty and freedom" for the sake of my elderly neighbour and those around me, especially my once pregnant wife and now new born son. I wouldn't know how I feel if I somehow knew that I had the virus, passed it onto my elderly neighbour which could potentially kill her.

Not all of us are only thinking of ourselves but others around us.
 

gb9

Senior Member
Jan 18, 2011
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#6
I understand what you're saying but I'm willing to temporarily sacrifice a part of my "liberty and freedom" for the sake of my elderly neighbour and those around me, especially my once pregnant wife and now new born son. I wouldn't know how I feel if I somehow knew that I had the virus, passed it onto my elderly neighbour which could potentially kill her.

Not all of us are only thinking of ourselves but others around us.
I agree.

but, we have to balance this with also thinking about people who have no income, and businesses that folks have poured their hard work into for decades are closed.

we have to love all our neighbors , not just the high risk ones.

and that what makes this so tricky , how to balance all this...
 

EleventhHour

Well-known member
Nov 11, 2019
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#7
I understand what you're saying but I'm willing to temporarily sacrifice a part of my "liberty and freedom" for the sake of my elderly neighbour and those around me, especially my once pregnant wife and now new born son. I wouldn't know how I feel if I somehow knew that I had the virus, passed it onto my elderly neighbour which could potentially kill her.

Not all of us are only thinking of ourselves but others around us.
The one thing that people want to overlook time and time again is this is a novel virus.....and still is a novel virus.

Viruses are not bacteria ...having antibodies does not mean having immunity to getting it again.

People also seem confused between liberty and anarchy these days.
 
Aug 10, 2019
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#8
I understand what you're saying but I'm willing to temporarily sacrifice a part of my "liberty and freedom" for the sake of my elderly neighbour and those around me, especially my once pregnant wife and now new born son. I wouldn't know how I feel if I somehow knew that I had the virus, passed it onto my elderly neighbour which could potentially kill her.

Not all of us are only thinking of ourselves but others around us.
In Canada province of Quebec last week there were 40 odd long term care homes that were deemed critical, now that number is nearing 100. If one were to draw a cause and effect relationship between closing schools and LTC facilities one might reasonably argue that closing schools causes LTC to experience Covid-19 outbreaks. To be clear I am absolutely not suggesting that closing schools causes the virus to spread more rapidly in LTC facilities....I'm merely pointing this corelation to underline the problem with drawing cause and effect relationships.

I think both sides of the debate, those who want to open things back up and those who want to remain locked down.....both sides by and large are thinking not just of themselves, but of others.

Locking down has consequences, opening up has potential consequences too. With both there is a human cost.

I think its a fair question to ask if lockdown measures have been effective. We really have nothing to compare them to, this is the first time something like this has ever been tried on such a massive scale. And the results are very much mixed. Countries with similar responses have experienced far differing results. Perhaps there are other factors in play besides just lockdown measures in expalining why some countries are experiencing more deaths than others. Here are some that have occured to me....

population density,
climate,
genetic make up of human populations within a geographic area....could certain groups have a natural immunity or defense

I think we all need to get off our high horses and stop looking down on one another...pretty much everyone wants the best outcome possible, but there is no 100% sure answer about how to do that. Discussion of differing viewpoints should not have to involve denegrating someone for having an opposing opinion.

Peace.
 

acts5_29

Active member
Apr 17, 2020
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#9
I've been tracking Sweden. Sweden's deaths-per-capita has consistently been about 20% higher than the United States' for quite awhile now, but their Western European neighbors are experiencing deaths-per-capita of over 200% that of the United States. And those European countries are under strict lockdown measures, too.

Seems to me that Sweden knows what they are doing. Can't hide from the virus forever. Take your lumps and live like free men.
 
Aug 10, 2019
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#11
Next is the collapse of the economy.

But here is actually a non sensationalized scientific approach. The only thing these doctors do not touch upon is the fact that virus is most likely bio-engineered and novel.

https://153news.net/watch_video.php?v=WGB34K4YKN4B
I saw that video, and while it certainly caters to my bias I don't know who these Doctors are Dr Dan Erikson and Dr Artin Massihi. I've learned long ago that fact checking is always important, but never more so than when its information with which you agree.

I'm finding a lot of blowback, apparently the video has been reomoved from youtube, welcome to censorship....

https://www.bakersfield.com/news/lo...cle_8f4dd16c-89ab-11ea-bbbb-cf8892ab1014.html

The irony in all this....if they're right, that our immune systems need practise (not a new concept) then it could be that the hypervigilant, behind masks, wiping everything down and staying inside as much as humanly possible....that instead of the scofflaws flouting reccomendations, it could be the so called Karens who will be most at risk.
 

Lanolin

Well-known member
Dec 15, 2018
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#12
unless you live in Sweden, you cant really compare and say so and so did or didnt do this and that and they didnt die blah blah blah

I think each nation needs to do what is right for their population, and some countries are obviously bigger than others, have different ways of living, diversity, climate even ways of working.

apparnetly there have been few deaths in Iceland but lets see, its an island nation, people are already indoors most of the time and socially distant from each other anyway, the population is homogenous and doesnt travel too much, they are self sufficent in food....a cold and flu outbreak theyve probably had years of experiene dealing with some such and know that you just dont go to work if you not well. the medical infrastructures are probably already in place, aside from not having many compromised people in the first place.

Every country is different. Geographiclly, socially, etc.

yes lockdown probably isnt fun but come on people do hibernate for winter and many people have been doing that for centuries. quarantine is a standard measure for infectious diseases. Nations already quarantine animals and plants and screen people at the borders as safety measures, to prevent outbreaks of ANY kind its not just being mean its just common sense to protect ones population.
 

Lanolin

Well-known member
Dec 15, 2018
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#13
I do recall the hysteria of Y2K though but thing is we knew it was coming lol
 

Desdichado

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2014
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#14
Yes. It appears the rate of death doesn't correlate with government measures taken to avoid the spread of the disease.

I've been tracking Sweden. Sweden's deaths-per-capita has consistently been about 20% higher than the United States' for quite awhile now, but their Western European neighbors are experiencing deaths-per-capita of over 200% that of the United States. And those European countries are under strict lockdown measures, too.

Seems to me that Sweden knows what they are doing. Can't hide from the virus forever. Take your lumps and live like free men.
 

EleventhHour

Well-known member
Nov 11, 2019
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#15
I've been tracking Sweden. Sweden's deaths-per-capita has consistently been about 20% higher than the United States' for quite awhile now, but their Western European neighbors are experiencing deaths-per-capita of over 200% that of the United States. And those European countries are under strict lockdown measures, too.

Seems to me that Sweden knows what they are doing. Can't hide from the virus forever. Take your lumps and live like free men.
Lock down is far from the only variable... that is a terrible over simplification.
 

acts5_29

Active member
Apr 17, 2020
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#16
Lock down is far from the only variable... that is a terrible over simplification.
What complexity do you want to add? That western Europe is a hotspot, and Sweden is in not-quite-western Europe? That the hotspot in the U.S. is New York--where there is a lot of traffic from western Europe? And California and Washington have seen a lot of activity--which see a lot of traffic from Asia?

I was told there was going to be this slam-dunk evidence that all this lockdown and shutting down of everything was going to solve our problems, and I'm not seeing it. If anything, I'm seeing the opposite.
 
Aug 10, 2019
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#17
Lock down is far from the only variable... that is a terrible over simplification.
While lockdown is absolutely far from being the only variable, it is the one with the most far reaching ramifications I believe.

I don't know the Canadian numbers yet, but I'm seeing reports that US unemployment is now at over 30 million people. Apparently there are a lot of Canadians who are still officially employed for statistical purposes, but who haven't been working for weeks now.

I find my attitudes changing somewhat.....I'm still in favour of easing off on lockdown measures, but I'm wondering what additional measures can be put in place to protect the vulnerable, while also unsure as to my own degree of risk as a 53 year old smoker. I'm heading back to work on Thursday and was told they have a limited number of cloth washable masks available, and wanted to know if I want one....I passed, largely because there's so much conflicting information on their effectiveness. Even if they do provide a certain level of protection they have to be used properly....if there's coronavirus microbes trapped by the mask, handling it and then inadvertently touching mouth, nose, eyes....then one might as well not have bothered.
 

EleventhHour

Well-known member
Nov 11, 2019
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#18
While lockdown is absolutely far from being the only variable, it is the one with the most far reaching ramifications I believe.

I don't know the Canadian numbers yet, but I'm seeing reports that US unemployment is now at over 30 million people. Apparently there are a lot of Canadians who are still officially employed for statistical purposes, but who haven't been working for weeks now.

I find my attitudes changing somewhat.....I'm still in favour of easing off on lockdown measures, but I'm wondering what additional measures can be put in place to protect the vulnerable, while also unsure as to my own degree of risk as a 53 year old smoker. I'm heading back to work on Thursday and was told they have a limited number of cloth washable masks available, and wanted to know if I want one....I passed, largely because there's so much conflicting information on their effectiveness. Even if they do provide a certain level of protection they have to be used properly....if there's coronavirus microbes trapped by the mask, handling it and then inadvertently touching mouth, nose, eyes....then one might as well not have bothered.

Yup a mask does not solve every problem. I think masks protects others more than the protect the wearer, when we are talking about the general public. Try to be careful

There are no easy solutions.
One thing we know for sure is Canada and the USA, many other countries were not prepared and this is going to be an ongoing problem.

The economy runs on confidence, it will be a double whammy to the service industry, the bulk of our economy when we pay for staff and no one shows up to shop.

The world has been changed and we do not even know yet what that is going to look like,
 

EleventhHour

Well-known member
Nov 11, 2019
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#19
What complexity do you want to add? That western Europe is a hotspot, and Sweden is in not-quite-western Europe? That the hotspot in the U.S. is New York--where there is a lot of traffic from western Europe? And California and Washington have seen a lot of activity--which see a lot of traffic from Asia?

I was told there was going to be this slam-dunk evidence that all this lockdown and shutting down of everything was going to solve our problems, and I'm not seeing it. If anything, I'm seeing the opposite.
I have no idea where to even start with this.
But I can state one thing, to know if one situation is worse than another, both would have to be completed, they have not, so basically what we have is shear speculation.
 

acts5_29

Active member
Apr 17, 2020
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#20
But I can state one thing, to know if one situation is worse than another, both would have to be completed,
It's completed when we're dead. I'm not so sure I'm interested in it completing.