Ukraine the bad guy?
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You haven't been actually looking at the less published intelligence reports.
If regular Ukranian troops are doing this well....what are NATO trained troops with the "latest" gear (to them) going to be able to do? It's not the latest gear but much more advanced than anything this battle has seen yet.
It's going to come down to artillery and who is better? Is carpeting an area with artillery and praying you hit something better or is it going to be accurate and fast artillery with a fraction of the shells fired?
And let's not forget the counter battery equipment....Russia is definitely running out....but Ukranians just got a bunch of fresh NATO systems in country. (Currently being held back at an undisclosed location)
Russia has been sending really old artillery and tanks that take the same shells to the front...for a reason. And their manpower is conscripted from prisons and gyms from across Russia.
Look, I've been watching troop movements and equipment movements....ground wars hold no surprises anymore....especially with drone and satellite imagery.
Then there's the cell phone traffic of all those videos (encrypted radios WERE in short supply and electronic OP-Sec is really poor. Russians are just as bad with calls to home as Ukranians are about posting Tic Tok and Telegram videos.
The Ukranians have a very good shot at pulling this off. Not much Russia can do about it at this point. The reserves and front line forces for their counteroffensive are being mobilized now. It's going to take a couple of weeks to get everything into position....but it's coming.
If regular Ukranian troops are doing this well....what are NATO trained troops with the "latest" gear (to them) going to be able to do? It's not the latest gear but much more advanced than anything this battle has seen yet.
It's going to come down to artillery and who is better? Is carpeting an area with artillery and praying you hit something better or is it going to be accurate and fast artillery with a fraction of the shells fired?
And let's not forget the counter battery equipment....Russia is definitely running out....but Ukranians just got a bunch of fresh NATO systems in country. (Currently being held back at an undisclosed location)
Russia has been sending really old artillery and tanks that take the same shells to the front...for a reason. And their manpower is conscripted from prisons and gyms from across Russia.
Look, I've been watching troop movements and equipment movements....ground wars hold no surprises anymore....especially with drone and satellite imagery.
Then there's the cell phone traffic of all those videos (encrypted radios WERE in short supply and electronic OP-Sec is really poor. Russians are just as bad with calls to home as Ukranians are about posting Tic Tok and Telegram videos.
The Ukranians have a very good shot at pulling this off. Not much Russia can do about it at this point. The reserves and front line forces for their counteroffensive are being mobilized now. It's going to take a couple of weeks to get everything into position....but it's coming.
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Post any links you have regarding these "the less published intelligence reports". I would like to see them myself.
The supposed "leaked reports" tell of high Ukraine casualty ratios and AD failure by May. No doubt an intentional disclosure for various reasons. Same goes for Macron's latest shenanigans. Perfect timing. Looks to me that the writing is on the wall.
Furthermore, to presume that this new (and probably the final) Ukrainian counter-offense army will be able to retake all occupied territories is utterly preposterous. Given the fact that Russia is holding a very large number of regular forces in close proximity in reserve for the singular purpose of destroying them once and for all.
The supposed "leaked reports" tell of high Ukraine casualty ratios and AD failure by May. No doubt an intentional disclosure for various reasons. Same goes for Macron's latest shenanigans. Perfect timing. Looks to me that the writing is on the wall.
Furthermore, to presume that this new (and probably the final) Ukrainian counter-offense army will be able to retake all occupied territories is utterly preposterous. Given the fact that Russia is holding a very large number of regular forces in close proximity in reserve for the singular purpose of destroying them once and for all.
The published "Secret" report last week is a phoney. Too much is wrong for it to be anything else but a hoax.
Sure it's a month old but it's on the wrong paper, wrong format, and wrong data.
It's also missing key elements that a NATO or US secret document will have. (Like the name of the person who printed it and the custody chain...can't print this high of classified information without it...it would be visible in EVERY square as each square is a separate document.
But I also am very hesitant to start posting source materials....where I'm sure that everyone involved in Ukraine and Russia really does already know this stuff....I just really don't want to help the "Useful Idiots" by posting it about....Wagner Group has Electronic warfare disinformation people everywhere on SM pushing their agendas. I've run into a few. They always make Wagner Group sound like missionaries instead of mercenaries and a host of other things.
Sure it's a month old but it's on the wrong paper, wrong format, and wrong data.
It's also missing key elements that a NATO or US secret document will have. (Like the name of the person who printed it and the custody chain...can't print this high of classified information without it...it would be visible in EVERY square as each square is a separate document.
But I also am very hesitant to start posting source materials....where I'm sure that everyone involved in Ukraine and Russia really does already know this stuff....I just really don't want to help the "Useful Idiots" by posting it about....Wagner Group has Electronic warfare disinformation people everywhere on SM pushing their agendas. I've run into a few. They always make Wagner Group sound like missionaries instead of mercenaries and a host of other things.
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So no more freedom of religion or freedom of speech in Ukraine?
Yea....that is the same intel I have heard.
Along with outlawing opposition parties, politicians, lawyers, independent journalism and news networks. And anything and everything with the slightest connection to Russian culture including language, books, schools etc.
Smells like cultural genocide to me.
Yea....that is the same intel I have heard.
Along with outlawing opposition parties, politicians, lawyers, independent journalism and news networks. And anything and everything with the slightest connection to Russian culture including language, books, schools etc.
Smells like cultural genocide to me.
All Slavics tend to be really racist. From Slovaks to Czech to Hungarian to Roma to Russian to Ukranians and Latvians and Russians.
This isn't anything new. There are few who migrate but it's really not recommended.
Unless you have lived in this area you really won't understand. But just about every culture in the world is massively more racist than the USA. It's kinda odd. Also what constitutes obvious child abuse in the USA/Canada is considered normal parenting elsewhere.
Don't use extremely Westernized ideals and morals when judging the world. Everyone falls massively short.
Free speech? Ummm....kinda. just can't have treasonous or traitorous speech. That whole "our leader sucks, I hope Russia wins this war" type speech will get a person hurt, killed or maimed. Just getting extradited to Russia is a nothing. The Orthodox priests are Russian anyway.
This isn't anything new. There are few who migrate but it's really not recommended.
Unless you have lived in this area you really won't understand. But just about every culture in the world is massively more racist than the USA. It's kinda odd. Also what constitutes obvious child abuse in the USA/Canada is considered normal parenting elsewhere.
Don't use extremely Westernized ideals and morals when judging the world. Everyone falls massively short.
Free speech? Ummm....kinda. just can't have treasonous or traitorous speech. That whole "our leader sucks, I hope Russia wins this war" type speech will get a person hurt, killed or maimed. Just getting extradited to Russia is a nothing. The Orthodox priests are Russian anyway.
The case for Russian casus belli as regards the protracted sanguinary murderous assaults against ethnic slavs in Eastern Ukraine. And I didn't prove it.......you did by your commentary.
BTW.......one or two weeks worth of TU-95 carpet bombing and its game over. AFU AD (what little remains) would be exhausted on the first wave.
I take it that the only reason this has yet to happen is because Putin does not want to create an humanitarian disaster.
BTW.......one or two weeks worth of TU-95 carpet bombing and its game over. AFU AD (what little remains) would be exhausted on the first wave.
I take it that the only reason this has yet to happen is because Putin does not want to create an humanitarian disaster.
Well.....it appears that the "latest gear" is "missing the mark" evidently.....
There have been quite a lot of rumors about Russian jamming the last number of years. In that regard, they are supposedly without peers.
BTW to assume that Russia does not possess top-notch ISR is pretty dumb. I mean they have their own GPS satellites among many others for pity's sake.
There have been quite a lot of rumors about Russian jamming the last number of years. In that regard, they are supposedly without peers.
BTW to assume that Russia does not possess top-notch ISR is pretty dumb. I mean they have their own GPS satellites among many others for pity's sake.
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Russian jamming and other electronic warfare devices are some of the best in the world. It's somewhat simple technology. Even a howitzer grape shot of magnets in the air will provide great radio jamming...even high powered radios are worthless against magnet grape shot into the air. And depending upon angle and charge you can jam everything in a ten mile radius for a long time.
However....they can't do anything electronic when they are jamming. They have to wait. Currently they have a large supply of sim cards....and are using them to block Ukranians from accessing the internet. Not a DOS attack per say....but an overwhelming of the systems available. They've been at it most of this week. Not a lot made it through to telegram or TicToc from Bakhmut except for Russian propaganda.
However, certain munitions are not so radio signal dependent from GPS or the sending tower. Some are infrared laser guided (by drones) and others tow a thin cable over a mile.
Others still are ground radar terrain following missiles. (Feed them a topographical map and give them a target) these work day and night.
Then to really mess up Russia's day send in the radar seeking missiles....they will target the return battery fire systems. They are running out of counter battery systems.
If Russia is doing a LOT of jamming everywhere....it means it's fire at will for artillery.
However....they can't do anything electronic when they are jamming. They have to wait. Currently they have a large supply of sim cards....and are using them to block Ukranians from accessing the internet. Not a DOS attack per say....but an overwhelming of the systems available. They've been at it most of this week. Not a lot made it through to telegram or TicToc from Bakhmut except for Russian propaganda.
However, certain munitions are not so radio signal dependent from GPS or the sending tower. Some are infrared laser guided (by drones) and others tow a thin cable over a mile.
Others still are ground radar terrain following missiles. (Feed them a topographical map and give them a target) these work day and night.
Then to really mess up Russia's day send in the radar seeking missiles....they will target the return battery fire systems. They are running out of counter battery systems.
If Russia is doing a LOT of jamming everywhere....it means it's fire at will for artillery.
Putin never did....Russia did.
Back shortly after the turn of the century the US, Russia, Europe and a few others (including Ukraine) entered into the NPA or Non Proliferation Agreement with treaties signed that would agree for the US and Russia to help defend Ukraine should it be attacked after they gave up their Nuclear weapons.
We were supposed to send troops....but since it's Russia...well we aren't.
But we have a treaty with Ukraine to help them defend themselves. We should have sent weapons when Ukraine lost Crimea to Russian invasion....but neither Obama or Trump really wanted to get involved. (Bad call by both of them) Both Presidents deliberately ignored the situation. Making the USA seen as not really keeping their promises on the world stage. (Bad karma IMHO)
And current fighting between political parties is going to cause more instability in the world. This game of oppositional politics is going to bring the end of the world. Pure and simple....
Back shortly after the turn of the century the US, Russia, Europe and a few others (including Ukraine) entered into the NPA or Non Proliferation Agreement with treaties signed that would agree for the US and Russia to help defend Ukraine should it be attacked after they gave up their Nuclear weapons.
We were supposed to send troops....but since it's Russia...well we aren't.
But we have a treaty with Ukraine to help them defend themselves. We should have sent weapons when Ukraine lost Crimea to Russian invasion....but neither Obama or Trump really wanted to get involved. (Bad call by both of them) Both Presidents deliberately ignored the situation. Making the USA seen as not really keeping their promises on the world stage. (Bad karma IMHO)
And current fighting between political parties is going to cause more instability in the world. This game of oppositional politics is going to bring the end of the world. Pure and simple....
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Putin was saying that he had no intention of invading Ukraine right up to the day that he launched his invasion. Most intelligence services did not believe him. Rightly so. You are right, Russia should have been driven out of Ukrainian territory in 2014. Appeasement does not work. And history teaches us that we learn nothing from history.........
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Ukraine did not join NATO. That is also a matter of public record. Ukraine should have been allowed to join. Putin would not have dared to invade Ukraine. All Putin has achieved is to push more countries to seek to join NATO. Finland has doubled the length of NATO's border with Russia. Ukraine will join eventually. Putin has made a lot of internal enemies recently. I doubt he will be running the show for long.
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Not a bad thread so far! Especially when compared to similar threads on Twitter! Russian bots dominate on Twitter!
As for Cv5 & his links to Twitter, Twitter is just not a "source!" But, it does lend credibility to this thread being in the Conspiracy Forum, where I am rarely found. Hence my very late entry to the discussion.
In the interest of Conflict of Interest, I am half Ukrainian- Galacia. My grandparents immigrated from Galacia to Canada before WWI, lucky for me! My grandmother's family (call her Baba!) got an early Land Grant of 160 acres of the best black soil. It's still a working farm, in the family! My great grandfather was killed in Stalin's purges in 1937. I still have a lot of family in Ukraine & Poland, although some if the young men, (my cousins several times removed) were killed early in the war & a Canadian cousin has been sending medical & food supplies to our family there, since the war began. She also has excellent Ukrainian, but my study of the language only started 6 months before the war.
I've also been studying Ukrainian History since the war began. Timothy Snyder, a professor at Yale has an excellent series filmed in the fall of 2022, called "The Making of Modern Ukraine" on YouTube, as well as reading some of the required texts,
"The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine" by Serhii Plokhy;
Bloodlines: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin, by Timothy Snyder.
He is an excellent historian, not such a great speaker, but certainly worth the watch for understanding this war! He uses primary sources, which give so much more relevant information, than Wiki articles or Twitter threads. (CV5, please take some time to watch it!) Snyder speaks 10 languages, and besides history, has excellent insight into the background of this war.
My dad often talked about Ukraine- his 5 Ukrainian cousins with Oriental eyes, handed down from Mongol invasions, and the simple geographic fact that Ukraine has few land barriers, except some mountain ranges. He told me about the repeated invasions. Snyder speaks about Germany's goal in WWII to capture Ukraine, get rid of Ukrainians, and use the country to fulfill his goal of "Lebensraum" or "Living Space" for German people. Lucky for Ukraine, Stalin fought back and drove the Soviets out of Ukraine. Unlucky for Ukraine, as it brought back the Russian conquerors, & Ukraine became a Soviet satellite again.
I am very pro-Ukraine, obviously. I don't want any more of my family killed or living under Russia. Russia's entire premise of the invasion is that the "Little Russians" with the same language & culture as Russia need to return to the motherland! Not! Ukrainian is much closer to Polish than Russian, despite both languages using the Cyrillic alphabet. Nor is their religion the same. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church is under a Ukrainian patriarch, although the Russian Orthodox Church would say differently. Most Ukrainians are actually Greek Catholic, follow Orthodox rites, Ukrainian language, but are answerable to the pope. The Orthodox Church has never been beholden to the pope, Orthodoxy being established by Byzantine Orthodox missionaries in 900 AD, who also created the Cyrillic Alphabet.
Russia has attempted, through the Tzars & then the Soviets, to Russify Ukraine, back to Ivan the Terrible in the 16th century. I have a list of each act that forbid teaching Ukrainian, printing books or writing in Ukrainian, and pushing Russia in yhr universities, media, schools and general population, esp in the east. Which explains why so many people in the east speak Russian. They speak Russian because of cultural genocide by the Russians! Although the western regions speak mostly Ukrainian and Polish, the language has been compromised by the influx of Russian words. Ukrainian refugees are surprised by Ukrainian-Canadian, which is more "pure" than what is spoken in Ukraine. Although also more archaic!
Of course, I am completely against Putin & his invasion. I'm not saying all of Ukraine is pure & good. The Azov battalion sounds horrible! But again, after studying Ukrainian history, you can understand why, especially after the Holodomor (famine) in 1932-33, created by Stalin to push collectivization forward, when up to 6 million people, mostly peasants, were systematically starved to death by plan, that the Ukrainians viewed Nazi Germany as liberators from Stalin & his policies. When they started killing ALL the Jews, (In Belarus, Poland etc too!) most Ukrainians realized the Germans were at least on par with Soviet Russia & Stalin. A vivid case of choosing between 2 evils! A lose-lose situation, in which some Ukrainians picked the Nazi evil over the Stalinist evil after WWII.
My biggest fear is that Russia will win! They will try to colonize the Baltic States if they beat Ukraine, and other nations in Eastern Europe after that. This is a war about boundaries and resources, too! In fact, probably more about money than language & culture. Ukraine was the "bread basket of Europe!" When the war ends, it will be again. There are other tempting resources, too!
The fact is, Putin is a former KGB goon, and acts like it! People mean little to his imperialistic need to conquer! Yet, as others point out, his sad war really hasn't been a success! He does use unseasoned troops & bad equipment. Maybe he really believes his own propaganda, and thought the Ukrainians would welcome him as a liberator? Yet, that hasn't occurred, even in the east.
As for Crimea, it was only temporarily Russian. The true people of the Crimea were the Tatars, who either escaped to Turkey or were deported to Uzbekistan -every man, woman & child. Just Google "Crimean Tatars" to learn the truth! Of course, Russian NEEDS the Crimea as a port- it's the only southern one they have! Hence the myth of it belonging to Russia, another piece of unmitigated Russian propaganda and misinformation!
My prayer is that Russia will give up & leave. I also pray that the west will continue to supply Ukraine with arms, sadly. War is horrible, but cultural genocide & annihilation are worse! Zelenskyy has his faults! He is a Russian speaking Jew, which was always a sub-culture in Ukraine, although a very large one till Germany got their way, in WWII sadly. But, he is keeping the country focused on winning the war, something they were never allowed to do in the past! Ukrainian freedom -to exist must be fought for!
As for NATO, Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons to be admitted to NATO, leaving them helpless against Russian nuclear weapons! They better be helping Ukraine!
As someone with Ukrainian heritage, I am proud of my ethnicity & culture. I fear for my family still there! I don't want to see my grandparents' homeland wink out of existence. Ukraine is a proud, historical culture, founded 11 centuries ago. The Rus empire ruled Eastern Europe from Kyiv for 3 centuries before Russia was founded by the Mongols. Russia has always been war like, attacking & grabbing land, wiping out people groups. That has not changed! Russia even stole Ukraine's rightful name, leaving Ruthenia as the interim name for the country!! Just a bit of my knowledge & opinions on this invasion!
Slava Ukraini слава Україні
As for Cv5 & his links to Twitter, Twitter is just not a "source!" But, it does lend credibility to this thread being in the Conspiracy Forum, where I am rarely found. Hence my very late entry to the discussion.
In the interest of Conflict of Interest, I am half Ukrainian- Galacia. My grandparents immigrated from Galacia to Canada before WWI, lucky for me! My grandmother's family (call her Baba!) got an early Land Grant of 160 acres of the best black soil. It's still a working farm, in the family! My great grandfather was killed in Stalin's purges in 1937. I still have a lot of family in Ukraine & Poland, although some if the young men, (my cousins several times removed) were killed early in the war & a Canadian cousin has been sending medical & food supplies to our family there, since the war began. She also has excellent Ukrainian, but my study of the language only started 6 months before the war.
I've also been studying Ukrainian History since the war began. Timothy Snyder, a professor at Yale has an excellent series filmed in the fall of 2022, called "The Making of Modern Ukraine" on YouTube, as well as reading some of the required texts,
"The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine" by Serhii Plokhy;
Bloodlines: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin, by Timothy Snyder.
He is an excellent historian, not such a great speaker, but certainly worth the watch for understanding this war! He uses primary sources, which give so much more relevant information, than Wiki articles or Twitter threads. (CV5, please take some time to watch it!) Snyder speaks 10 languages, and besides history, has excellent insight into the background of this war.
My dad often talked about Ukraine- his 5 Ukrainian cousins with Oriental eyes, handed down from Mongol invasions, and the simple geographic fact that Ukraine has few land barriers, except some mountain ranges. He told me about the repeated invasions. Snyder speaks about Germany's goal in WWII to capture Ukraine, get rid of Ukrainians, and use the country to fulfill his goal of "Lebensraum" or "Living Space" for German people. Lucky for Ukraine, Stalin fought back and drove the Soviets out of Ukraine. Unlucky for Ukraine, as it brought back the Russian conquerors, & Ukraine became a Soviet satellite again.
I am very pro-Ukraine, obviously. I don't want any more of my family killed or living under Russia. Russia's entire premise of the invasion is that the "Little Russians" with the same language & culture as Russia need to return to the motherland! Not! Ukrainian is much closer to Polish than Russian, despite both languages using the Cyrillic alphabet. Nor is their religion the same. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church is under a Ukrainian patriarch, although the Russian Orthodox Church would say differently. Most Ukrainians are actually Greek Catholic, follow Orthodox rites, Ukrainian language, but are answerable to the pope. The Orthodox Church has never been beholden to the pope, Orthodoxy being established by Byzantine Orthodox missionaries in 900 AD, who also created the Cyrillic Alphabet.
Russia has attempted, through the Tzars & then the Soviets, to Russify Ukraine, back to Ivan the Terrible in the 16th century. I have a list of each act that forbid teaching Ukrainian, printing books or writing in Ukrainian, and pushing Russia in yhr universities, media, schools and general population, esp in the east. Which explains why so many people in the east speak Russian. They speak Russian because of cultural genocide by the Russians! Although the western regions speak mostly Ukrainian and Polish, the language has been compromised by the influx of Russian words. Ukrainian refugees are surprised by Ukrainian-Canadian, which is more "pure" than what is spoken in Ukraine. Although also more archaic!
Of course, I am completely against Putin & his invasion. I'm not saying all of Ukraine is pure & good. The Azov battalion sounds horrible! But again, after studying Ukrainian history, you can understand why, especially after the Holodomor (famine) in 1932-33, created by Stalin to push collectivization forward, when up to 6 million people, mostly peasants, were systematically starved to death by plan, that the Ukrainians viewed Nazi Germany as liberators from Stalin & his policies. When they started killing ALL the Jews, (In Belarus, Poland etc too!) most Ukrainians realized the Germans were at least on par with Soviet Russia & Stalin. A vivid case of choosing between 2 evils! A lose-lose situation, in which some Ukrainians picked the Nazi evil over the Stalinist evil after WWII.
My biggest fear is that Russia will win! They will try to colonize the Baltic States if they beat Ukraine, and other nations in Eastern Europe after that. This is a war about boundaries and resources, too! In fact, probably more about money than language & culture. Ukraine was the "bread basket of Europe!" When the war ends, it will be again. There are other tempting resources, too!
The fact is, Putin is a former KGB goon, and acts like it! People mean little to his imperialistic need to conquer! Yet, as others point out, his sad war really hasn't been a success! He does use unseasoned troops & bad equipment. Maybe he really believes his own propaganda, and thought the Ukrainians would welcome him as a liberator? Yet, that hasn't occurred, even in the east.
As for Crimea, it was only temporarily Russian. The true people of the Crimea were the Tatars, who either escaped to Turkey or were deported to Uzbekistan -every man, woman & child. Just Google "Crimean Tatars" to learn the truth! Of course, Russian NEEDS the Crimea as a port- it's the only southern one they have! Hence the myth of it belonging to Russia, another piece of unmitigated Russian propaganda and misinformation!
My prayer is that Russia will give up & leave. I also pray that the west will continue to supply Ukraine with arms, sadly. War is horrible, but cultural genocide & annihilation are worse! Zelenskyy has his faults! He is a Russian speaking Jew, which was always a sub-culture in Ukraine, although a very large one till Germany got their way, in WWII sadly. But, he is keeping the country focused on winning the war, something they were never allowed to do in the past! Ukrainian freedom -to exist must be fought for!
As for NATO, Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons to be admitted to NATO, leaving them helpless against Russian nuclear weapons! They better be helping Ukraine!
As someone with Ukrainian heritage, I am proud of my ethnicity & culture. I fear for my family still there! I don't want to see my grandparents' homeland wink out of existence. Ukraine is a proud, historical culture, founded 11 centuries ago. The Rus empire ruled Eastern Europe from Kyiv for 3 centuries before Russia was founded by the Mongols. Russia has always been war like, attacking & grabbing land, wiping out people groups. That has not changed! Russia even stole Ukraine's rightful name, leaving Ruthenia as the interim name for the country!! Just a bit of my knowledge & opinions on this invasion!
Slava Ukraini слава Україні
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