Before I hit the sack I probably should explain why I'm such a skeptic.
When news first started being reported out of China I followed the news....because I know enough about epidemics and pandemics to know that they spread and there's not much that can stop them once they take hold in our hyper connected world. By the time an outbreak is recognized its too late, especially with incubation time before the onset of symptoms.
I looked at the numbers being reported out of China I simply divided them by 3 to try and get a rough gauge of what could be expected in the United States. China has now reported almost 50,000 deaths....I probably should have divided them by 4 given China's population of close to 1.4 billion and the U.S.'s 325 million....but it was basically back of the napkin spitballing to see whether I should be worried.
50,000 deaths divided by 3 is about 16.6 thousand....so meh, no big deal. In the United States over 7,700 people die each and every day from all causes, so if America suffered as badly as the the Chinese numbers indicated it would mean another 45 deaths a day averaged out over a year...but given the likely 3 or 4 month time frame it would be more like a spike up to another 150 or so deaths per day for the majority of the outbreak.
Of course China's reporting is incredibly suspect, and that's why I'm now using Italy, I have a much higher degree of confidence in their numbers. But in Italy the situation is still evolving, it looks like the numbers have started to trend down in terms of deaths....919 on March 27th as I mentioned before, and 727 reported for April 1st....the numbers can change of course as the data is more rigorously confirmed, but I'm not expecting a big variance.
If Italy does end up around 25K dead from coronavirus, with a population of about 60 million...which is more than 5x smaller than the United States....so that would mean about 125K deaths, or a bit more. Of course age is a huge factor with coronavirus and Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and second oldest in the world after Japan, so I think its reasonable to expect the United States to hopefully do a bit better, maybe even keep it under 100K.
That would be an outstanding result, especially given that it was the Imperial College's horribly off forecast of 1.1 to 1.2 million even with mitigation efforts like social distancing and isolating.
Take issue with Oxford's study all you want, anyone...meh. But the real tradgey is how pathetic the Imperial College did in projecting outcomes and how it leading to the putting the world's largest economies into self induced comas.
Be blessed all....let's talk about this with simple data and facts and leave the juvenille sniping to the kids on facebook.
When news first started being reported out of China I followed the news....because I know enough about epidemics and pandemics to know that they spread and there's not much that can stop them once they take hold in our hyper connected world. By the time an outbreak is recognized its too late, especially with incubation time before the onset of symptoms.
I looked at the numbers being reported out of China I simply divided them by 3 to try and get a rough gauge of what could be expected in the United States. China has now reported almost 50,000 deaths....I probably should have divided them by 4 given China's population of close to 1.4 billion and the U.S.'s 325 million....but it was basically back of the napkin spitballing to see whether I should be worried.
50,000 deaths divided by 3 is about 16.6 thousand....so meh, no big deal. In the United States over 7,700 people die each and every day from all causes, so if America suffered as badly as the the Chinese numbers indicated it would mean another 45 deaths a day averaged out over a year...but given the likely 3 or 4 month time frame it would be more like a spike up to another 150 or so deaths per day for the majority of the outbreak.
Of course China's reporting is incredibly suspect, and that's why I'm now using Italy, I have a much higher degree of confidence in their numbers. But in Italy the situation is still evolving, it looks like the numbers have started to trend down in terms of deaths....919 on March 27th as I mentioned before, and 727 reported for April 1st....the numbers can change of course as the data is more rigorously confirmed, but I'm not expecting a big variance.
If Italy does end up around 25K dead from coronavirus, with a population of about 60 million...which is more than 5x smaller than the United States....so that would mean about 125K deaths, or a bit more. Of course age is a huge factor with coronavirus and Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and second oldest in the world after Japan, so I think its reasonable to expect the United States to hopefully do a bit better, maybe even keep it under 100K.
That would be an outstanding result, especially given that it was the Imperial College's horribly off forecast of 1.1 to 1.2 million even with mitigation efforts like social distancing and isolating.
Take issue with Oxford's study all you want, anyone...meh. But the real tradgey is how pathetic the Imperial College did in projecting outcomes and how it leading to the putting the world's largest economies into self induced comas.
Be blessed all....let's talk about this with simple data and facts and leave the juvenille sniping to the kids on facebook.
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