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H
The issue I have here is the inconsistency in these positions. And not to single you out, but many people are just easily swayed by headlines and then make their investment decisions based on emotion and fear. The market goes up. And down. Sometimes it even trends sideways. There's no crystal ball for the future, and anyone who claims to have it is a liar, cheating, or just plain ignorant. The stock market is only one of several indicators of economic direction, and any wise investor (not a speculator, not a trader) will ignore the intraday noise and make strategic decisions rather than being swayed every direction the wind blows.
J
What’s keeping the illusion of fiat dollars going, is that most commodities, assets, stocks and housing are dollar-denominated. That might be tested by the BRICS who are trying to set up gold and silver-backed currency.
If there’s a reset, the US Fed might set up a dual dollar system, one for international trade, and one for domestic use. Since prices for commodities, especially oil, will go way up compared to a devalued dollar, the US might encourage more hydraulic fracking, which could lead to water pollution and IMO, earthquakes.
If there’s a reset, the US Fed might set up a dual dollar system, one for international trade, and one for domestic use. Since prices for commodities, especially oil, will go way up compared to a devalued dollar, the US might encourage more hydraulic fracking, which could lead to water pollution and IMO, earthquakes.
V
All I did was ask questions that every investor asks, in that first post. With the limited recovery followed by a temporary nosedive at the end of the day on Tuesday, coupled with yesterday's recoup of Monday's losses, I say again, we're in a correction. But there are also predictions from knowledgeable financiers that the ride is going to get bumpy.
No one is going to make investment decisions on my opinion. I'm an almost-psychologist, not a financial guru. Asking questions on a chat forum hardly constitutes the start of a panic.
No one is going to make investment decisions on my opinion. I'm an almost-psychologist, not a financial guru. Asking questions on a chat forum hardly constitutes the start of a panic.
H
I wasn't alluding to people reacting to YOUR posts, or even this forum. I used your reaction to illustrate how many investors react out of fear and emotion, and are persuaded to make decisions based on media headlines rather than an actual investment strategy.
Incidentally, as an almost psychologist, i think you might find behavioral finance to be an interesting area of study.
Incidentally, as an almost psychologist, i think you might find behavioral finance to be an interesting area of study.
V
I am familiar with it. It is based on cognitive theory, and as I am a "Beck behavioralist" and practice CBT in my therapy, I like the uniformity of it. If, as the theory suggests (and I believe is correct), even the most stable and well-grounded people occasionally act irrationally, why would anyone assume they consistently act rationally in investment exercises?
The simple answer is, to think they would is irrational in itself. When we have an even like this past six or seven days of market volatility, it is only natural that some marginal investors would panic and engage is a sell-off that is, at best, not well thought out. Kahnemann and Tversky actually began study of this kind of behavior associated with investment and finance in the 60s, and their work is pretty solid.
The simple answer is, to think they would is irrational in itself. When we have an even like this past six or seven days of market volatility, it is only natural that some marginal investors would panic and engage is a sell-off that is, at best, not well thought out. Kahnemann and Tversky actually began study of this kind of behavior associated with investment and finance in the 60s, and their work is pretty solid.
J
(words paraphrased from this link) --https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Euler_and_Venn_diagrams.svg
Psychological interpretation of stock market reactions might be a subset independent of Shemitahs related to financial markets. debts and defaults.
The above Euler diagram might be changed to:
Subset 1: People who know what psychological interpretation is.
Subset 2: People who understand how the Shemitah-Jubilee year might relate to financial debts, defaults, and forgiveness of debts.
Subset 3 (the intersection of the subset 1 and subset 2 circles): People who know the difference.
Psychological interpretation of stock market reactions might be a subset independent of Shemitahs related to financial markets. debts and defaults.
The above Euler diagram might be changed to:
Subset 1: People who know what psychological interpretation is.
Subset 2: People who understand how the Shemitah-Jubilee year might relate to financial debts, defaults, and forgiveness of debts.
Subset 3 (the intersection of the subset 1 and subset 2 circles): People who know the difference.
V
If you guys want to talk about the Shemitah-Jubilee years, I believe you already have a thread for that, so please take the discussion there. Neither of you, nor Cahn, knows squat about when for sure any of the end-times prophecies kick in, and at any rate, we are not to order our lives around them, but to continue to abide in Christ and in this world to do His will. And His will has very little to do with the stock market.
Now, as to the actual thread topic ...
The Dow opened down almost 400 on news of a shrinking Chinese manufacturing sector and continuing sluggish economy, but is bouncing back somewhat. At 9.48 a.m. EDT, it was down 275, but five minutes later it went more than 300 down again. It's on a roller coaster ride in early trading, so hang tight.
Now, as to the actual thread topic ...
The Dow opened down almost 400 on news of a shrinking Chinese manufacturing sector and continuing sluggish economy, but is bouncing back somewhat. At 9.48 a.m. EDT, it was down 275, but five minutes later it went more than 300 down again. It's on a roller coaster ride in early trading, so hang tight.
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D
I've been trading everyday since this whole thing started. It was pretty easy to see coming in general but the day it popped off hard on a monday, I wasn't expecting such a violent move so early (and I don't think it's anywhere near done). Ive profitably shorted almost everything at one point or the other in the last month. Social media stock, oil, gold, natural gas, banks, the entire index, the giants individually (including Apple, Facebook, and Tesla, realized gains). Almost the easiest money I ever made. Had a friend suggest that I long the vix literally the day it started. Should have could have would have but I didn't.
The only thing I haven't shorted is the VIX. If you guys are long any indexes, I hope you are hedged appropriately. Sellling some covered calls and using the premium to buy some puts to get you through december is a smart play. Hopefully it just blows over but it still has potential to get really crazy for the next couple of months.
The only thing I haven't shorted is the VIX. If you guys are long any indexes, I hope you are hedged appropriately. Sellling some covered calls and using the premium to buy some puts to get you through december is a smart play. Hopefully it just blows over but it still has potential to get really crazy for the next couple of months.
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i am assuming you are referring to me, if not, i do appoligize.
Are you angry? Reading this above, i can't help but think you are upset, that something other than the topic of this thread was brought up. Are you upset because someone merely mentioned another topic?
And it is apparent, you do not know squat what Cahn or i have said. Both Him and myself, have not even once, nor even implied, that the things being said were "for sure" But have PLAINLY said they are speculations, opinions of things that MIGHT happen, or could happen. The question then what spirit is in you that makes you believe we are saying these things are "FOR SURE" as you now accuse us? Again, where is your LOVE, why are you so upset? Angry?
This is also what i say too, and i have heard Mr Cahn say as well. Imagine that, Mr Cahn and i teaching the same thing as you do too.
True, But the stock market crashing, acts of God, are very MUCH have to do with prophesy. His will is for us to LOVE ONE ANOTHER, Prophesies concern His wrath that will come upon the world because they have altogether FAILED to Love One Another.
Are you admitting, that you spoke about something that was NOT on topic? Maybe there is a thread about people speaking off topic.
OK, will do.
^i^ Responding to Post #36
V
You assume correctly, so no need to apologize.
No.
The subject at hand is current events, in a current events forum. I've replied to your Shemitah-Jubilee years thread in this same forum, even though it is more appropriate to BDF, though not absolutely essential to be relocated there. But the subject at hand is the stock market correction. Not prophecy, not end times. Just hoping to focus discussion where i intended.
I'll have to go back and look for those again, because I don't remember reading anything that would lead me to believe you were doing anything but camping out in your backyard, looking up, and refusing to take calls from your boss.
I believe you would be hard pressed to prove I am angry, unloving, or any other thing besides wanting to get the thread back on track.
Again, relative to facts not in evidence.
And yet again, that actually has very little to do, if anything, with the stock market, despite your clarification to the contrary.
No, I was getting past your derailing post to comment on the close of the market that day.
I'm sure there is, somewhere. Might be a little late to "hang tight" now, but whatever ...
No.
The subject at hand is current events, in a current events forum. I've replied to your Shemitah-Jubilee years thread in this same forum, even though it is more appropriate to BDF, though not absolutely essential to be relocated there. But the subject at hand is the stock market correction. Not prophecy, not end times. Just hoping to focus discussion where i intended.
I'll have to go back and look for those again, because I don't remember reading anything that would lead me to believe you were doing anything but camping out in your backyard, looking up, and refusing to take calls from your boss.
I believe you would be hard pressed to prove I am angry, unloving, or any other thing besides wanting to get the thread back on track.
Again, relative to facts not in evidence.
And yet again, that actually has very little to do, if anything, with the stock market, despite your clarification to the contrary.
No, I was getting past your derailing post to comment on the close of the market that day.
I'm sure there is, somewhere. Might be a little late to "hang tight" now, but whatever ...