How likely are you to find your special someone? (A mathematical breakdown)

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AAAPlus

Senior Member
Aug 2, 2011
601
10
18
#1
When one has ruled out 99.9% of the opposite sex they're probably being a little too picky.
This post from another thread got me thinking on how picky is picky.

There are, give or take, 7 Billion people on this planet. That's 7,000,000,000.

If you don't have ANY standards, that's 7 Billion. There's a great chance you'll find someone.

Ruling out one gender, that makes 3.5 Billion people. You're down to 50%

Then only take people in the U.S. 157,000,000 people remain. You're down to 2.2%

Reduce that even further to people who actually live in the same state as you. Let's take California, since it has the most people in it. Down to 19,000,000 people or .27%

73-76% of people in the U.S. identify as Christian, but only 9% of people actually believe in the Bible, having what is called a "Biblical Worldview". That brings us down to 1,710,000 people and .024% of the total world population.

So far we've eliminated 99.976% of the world population, or 99.952% of all opposite-gendered people. We're well past the 99.9% threshold.

Age is certainly a common factor. In the U.S. in 2005, 7% of people were age 20-25 and 7% were aged 25-30. 30-35 was also at just a bit less than 7%. So we'll take two of these age groups, giving a reasonable plus or minus 5-10 years difference between you and your significant other. So 14% of our group still standing would be 239,400 people. .00336% of the world population.

Now you have to eliminate married people. The average age to get married is 28, and about 50% of people in the U.S. at that age are currently married. That's 119,700 compatible people. .00168% of the total world population. However, it is .315% of the total population of California (again, using a heavily populated state. Your results may vary). If you somehow met every person in the state, 1 out of every 300 people would meet these standards.

But then you have to factor in people you get along with, who you find attractive. Results at this point are highly variable, so lets go out on a limb and say that you are attracted to and/or compatible with a full 10% of people you meet. That brings us down to 11,970 people (again, out of the entire WORLD)

But a relationship is a two-way road. Only 10% of those people will also find you attractive. That makes 1,197 people. 1,197 people that you could start a decent, Godly relationship with. That's .0000171% of the world's population, or 99.9999829% of the world's population eliminated.

That is 1 out of 5,847,953.

So...putting this into perspective...if you went out and met 5,847,953 people at random one of them would likely be compatible with you. Or just meeting people in your state (or wide-general area), you would be compatible with one out of every 31,746 of them.

So if you want to be a little more practical, just take that number and divide it by the number of people in your general metropolitan area. If you live in an area of 500,000 people, there are likely 15-16 people near you that you would be compatible with.

Sources:
https://www.barna.org/barna-update/...hristians-over-the-past-13-years#.Ud3BFvmR81M
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
Calculated Risk: Demographics GIF: 1920 - 2005
 
J

Jullianna

Guest
#2
I can't believe you actually did this. :)
 

Fenner

Senior Member
Jan 26, 2013
7,507
111
0
#3
I'm impressed AAAPlus
 

AAAPlus

Senior Member
Aug 2, 2011
601
10
18
#4
I can't believe you actually did this. :)
I'm feeling very mathematical today.

Also, if anyone thinks these numbers seem bleak, it's not quite as bad as the numbers would say (statistics don't tell the whole story). While they may only be one out of tens of thousands of people near you, these people will likely congregate in the same places as you (such as a good church). Since the Christian thing brought us down to 9%, you can multiply your chances about 10 times if you go to church full of other Bible-believing folks. That would make it around 1 out of every 3,174 church folks. And remember, all you're looking for is 1.
 
J

Jullianna

Guest
#5
If you said all of that to your lady, then got down on one knee with an engagement ring and told her that, in spite of the odds, you had found your one in 7 billion, she couldn't possibly say no. :)

propose.jpg
 

seoulsearch

OutWrite Trouble
May 23, 2009
14,958
4,596
113
#7
I'll have to wait and answer later on... hopefully after the spasms, seizures, and nervous tics all cease.

I'm having major flashbacks from an advanced statistics class I took about 14 years ago (and I still think the original post is more complicated... throw in a bell curve and I'm done for...) I'm glad none of you can see me foaming at the mouth...

Thanks for activating my Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, A3! :)
 
B

BananaPie

Guest
#8
I'm feeling very mathematical today. ...And remember, all you're looking for is 1.
Like sweet! There exists 1 certain fellow with a perfect 100% score.

91 points.......... Loyal & Integrity
05 points.......... Funny & Jolly & Kind
03 points.......... Genius, a bit dyslexic
0.5 point........... Hygienic & snores peachy
0.5 point........... Tall & husky & sweet

 
Last edited:
R

Ringer

Guest
#9
You forgot one thing.
If you're tall or short, certain people would only find that attractive.
You also have to fit "their" specific criteria...
 

AAAPlus

Senior Member
Aug 2, 2011
601
10
18
#10
You forgot one thing.
If you're tall or short, certain people would only find that attractive.
You also have to fit "their" specific criteria...
I covered that in the 4th and 5 paragraphs from the bottom.
 

maxwel

Senior Member
Apr 18, 2013
9,415
2,489
113
#12
So... uhhh... what are the statistics if the girl needs to have one giant eyeball?
 
N

NodMyHeadLikeYeah

Guest
#13
So... uhhh... what are the statistics if the girl needs to have one giant eyeball?
I'm not gonna lie to you Max... there not good.

;)
 

CatHerder

Senior Member
Mar 20, 2013
3,551
79
48
#14
given that God is sovereign,


If it's part of God's plan: 100% likely.

if it's not: 0% likely.
 
G

GRA

Guest
#15
This post from another thread got me thinking on how picky is picky.

There are, give or take, 7 Billion people on this planet. That's 7,000,000,000.

If you don't have ANY standards, that's 7 Billion. There's a great chance you'll find someone.

Ruling out one gender, that makes 3.5 Billion people. You're down to 50%

Then only take people in the U.S. 157,000,000 people remain. You're down to 2.2%

Reduce that even further to people who actually live in the same state as you. Let's take California, since it has the most people in it. Down to 19,000,000 people or .27%

73-76% of people in the U.S. identify as Christian, but only 9% of people actually believe in the Bible, having what is called a "Biblical Worldview". That brings us down to 1,710,000 people and .024% of the total world population.

So far we've eliminated 99.976% of the world population, or 99.952% of all opposite-gendered people. We're well past the 99.9% threshold.

Age is certainly a common factor. In the U.S. in 2005, 7% of people were age 20-25 and 7% were aged 25-30. 30-35 was also at just a bit less than 7%. So we'll take two of these age groups, giving a reasonable plus or minus 5-10 years difference between you and your significant other. So 14% of our group still standing would be 239,400 people. .00336% of the world population.

Now you have to eliminate married people. The average age to get married is 28, and about 50% of people in the U.S. at that age are currently married. That's 119,700 compatible people. .00168% of the total world population. However, it is .315% of the total population of California (again, using a heavily populated state. Your results may vary). If you somehow met every person in the state, 1 out of every 300 people would meet these standards.

But then you have to factor in people you get along with, who you find attractive. Results at this point are highly variable, so lets go out on a limb and say that you are attracted to and/or compatible with a full 10% of people you meet. That brings us down to 11,970 people (again, out of the entire WORLD)

But a relationship is a two-way road. Only 10% of those people will also find you attractive. That makes 1,197 people. 1,197 people that you could start a decent, Godly relationship with. That's .0000171% of the world's population, or 99.9999829% of the world's population eliminated.

That is 1 out of 5,847,953.

So...putting this into perspective...if you went out and met 5,847,953 people at random one of them would likely be compatible with you. Or just meeting people in your state (or wide-general area), you would be compatible with one out of every 31,746 of them.

So if you want to be a little more practical, just take that number and divide it by the number of people in your general metropolitan area. If you live in an area of 500,000 people, there are likely 15-16 people near you that you would be compatible with.

Sources:
https://www.barna.org/barna-update/...hristians-over-the-past-13-years#.Ud3BFvmR81M
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
Calculated Risk: Demographics GIF: 1920 - 2005
"Now you know why I am somewhat depending on God to bring her to me / bring us together..." ;)

( The odds of finding her purely by chance in a world of 7 billion are --- well --- not very good at all... :( :p )

:)
 

DuchessAimee

Senior Member
Apr 27, 2011
3,922
129
63
#16
How about I exercise my people skills? Yes. I'll do that. Here is the conversation you and I would have if I were to post what I'm thinking.

Me: Your math is wrong.

AAA: No it's not. How is it wrong?

Me: You've left out so many elements that your numbers are skewed.

You: Oh yeah? Like what?

Me: Like psychology, like God, like the fact that we don't actually know how many people there are on earth, like the fact that some of the people in marriages, dating relationships, and those who aren't ready to date might be available, and that when you attempt to run stats on something as fluid as people and relationships, the math is soft. It can't be counted on.

You: My three sources are perfectly scientific and valid!

Me: Perhaps they are, but you didn't take enough elements into consideration. You ran the numbers because you're feeling lonely and you're wondering where Miss Right is. You selected components out of population stats, not out of true likelihood, nor did you think about what makes up a person. The parameters of your research are flawed and incomplete at best.

Now, this is where you'd do one of three things. 1) You'd fight and defend your methodology, 2) You'd see the errors you made and we would have a valid and rational conversation about the hinge that have been truly bothering you, or 3) You'd blankly stare at me before you got up and left.

I think you'd first defend your argument and when I wouldn't back down, you'd leave.


How'd I do?
 
S

Shouryu

Guest
#17
The maths...

...they make my head go owie.
 

Markum1972

Senior Member
Mar 25, 2013
1,165
32
48
#18
Wow... I am suddenly feeling pretty good about the odds of either hitting the lottery or getting hit by lightning.