Heh not trying to call anyone a liar, I am sorry if I gave this impression, and who knows brother you may be around yet, no man knows when he will go to the nethers. Either way though, Biscuit does raise a decent point in his post iindeed lol!
Like I said though, without knowing anything about Carson thus having no personal pre-disposed bias for or against him, I personally do not think he'd win at least in the 2016 Presidential Campaign. Mostly for one because Hillary is a political titan, and yes even though Obama beat her (lol thanks to a backrooms deal with the Dems) she did win even by popular vote and possibly even in the fullest technical sense, but did not raise a dispute instead gaining a grand bargain of becoming Secretary of State (one of the most powerful and in my opinion even though I do not want Hillary for president, she was an overall good Sec. of State.)
Plus think of this 2016 is still 2 years away; in politics this is a lifetime. The political juggernaut that is Hillary Clinton might not even run for president. In this case perhaps your Carson guy could stand a fairer chance. Really it depends which party he is in. If Hillary doesn't run if he is a Democrat he'd be in a good position to win because besides Biden (whom won't win anyways), the Dems are pretty much gonna be out of star power until they can bring up some of the fresh faces to more prominence. The GOP field on the other hand is quite intriguing to observe. The GOP is very much in an ideological sort of flux. They don't have any superstars like Hillary's level, but the GOP has managed to cultivate some Rising Stars like Rand Paul, Rubio, and Huntsman that would be acceptable choices for President in my opinion. However the GOP has been pretty absurd the past few elections too lol, and are more likely to run their Unpopular Stars like Jeb Bush, Mitt, Paul Ryan, Christie, etc. that though they be stars, the swingvoter won't swing for them in favor of a more familiar brand like Hillary.
Lol again not trying to be stomping on your political prediction, I am merely a politico affeciando myself. Lol I live in Ohio, major swing state, and also a very critical political season state for both parties thus we get a lot of political variety in the Land of the Big River lol. I'm not really a Dem or a Repub and I can see in both parties both good people and agendas and people that scare the heck out of me with some of their ideas and agendas lol.
Either way though I beleive there is Politics and there is Governance. If Carson is a decent at governance and well suited for whatever position he seeks, I am not trying to condemn him or nothing. Merely I would think he'd need to raise his national political profile a bit in order to run in 2016 against Hillary Clinton of all people. Even though Obama was a fresh-faced Senator he did speak at the DNC convention in 2004 and he was a Senator which is a moreso prominent national level position than say governor or representative. It is still rare to pull off what Obama did in 2008. If you think Carson is good by all means I am all in favor of good governance. Even if some of our politicians are crazy I personally just like analyzing the theater of it all and the process so I don't really mind who runs so much as who wins lol.