This Presidential election is not going to be like any other.
1. The oligarchs and Deep state have been able to control presidents. It didn't really matter if they were Democrat or Republican. They won't have that option if Trump is elected. They know he will be coming for him and if elected will have a mandate to fire many who are in positions of power in the bureaucracy. Likewise if Trump wins one can expect the majority in the House to become wider and the MAGA party to become more influential since they will control the Whitehouse as well. Also, the Senate is already very, very close. If a couple of Republicans win Trump could control the House, Senate and Whitehouse. That means impeachments, budget cuts, judges being appointed and a whole lot of people being fired. I don't think the Deep State will allow it to get to that point, but would rather go down like Scarface, rather than like Carlo Rizzi in the Godfather.
2. The polls right now are horrible. The only possible chance they have is if the economy gets better, but with the House being controlled by Republicans it is clear there will not be an open checkbook. Already the lies about the economy being strong are being exposed, they are about to be completely exposed, think "Joe Biden streaking during the Super bowl" exposed. But we are also on the verge of WW3 (actually an argument can be made that we are already in WW3). A draft would obliterate any support Biden has among young people, minorities and suburban housewives. You can't expect the "refs" to steal the election in 2024 if it is a total blowout. It has to be plausible on some level. In some campaigns Democrats had to outspend their opponent 10:1 to squeak out a victory. This time it will be much worse, even 20:1, but without being able to launder money through Ukraine there won't be any money for that. Instead you will see many Democrats resign rather than run again. Unless the situation in the US with the war, the border and the economy were to have a miraculous improvement there could be a massive across the board victory for MAGA. That means impeachments, budget cuts, judges being appointed and a whole lot of people being fired. I don't think the Deep State will allow it to get to that point, but would rather go down like Scarface, rather than like Carlo Rizzi in the Godfather.