Effectively zero March 9-10. So goes Iranian military grandiose delusions.
And the delusions proffered on this thread.
The reported daily launch counts in the chart—approximately 350 ballistic missiles on February 28, dropping to around 175 on March 1, 120 on March 2, and 50 on March 3—align closely with estimates from several independent sources tracking the ongoing conflict.
facebook.com +2
Other reports show minor variations, such as higher initial figures (around 480 on February 28) or slightly different subsequent days (e.g., 130 on March 1, 150 on March 2, and 24–40 on March 3), but they consistently indicate a sharp overall decline in ballistic missile launches over the four days.
This trend is attributed to U.S. and Israeli strikes destroying an estimated 50% of Iran's missile launchers (around 300–350) and hundreds of missiles in stockpiles, severely limiting Iran's ability to sustain high-volume barrages.
criticalthreats.org +2
The 47% daily decay rate used in the chart fits an exponential model that roughly matches the observed data, where each day's launches are about 53% of the previous day's (e.g., 350 × 0.53³ ≈ 52 for March 3). This isn't just stockpile depletion— Iran's pre-conflict arsenal was estimated at around 2,500 ballistic missiles, with 500–800 launched so far—but also reflects ongoing attrition from strikes on launch infrastructure and production sites.
israel-alma.org +1
Reports note that Iran's barrages have shifted from large, coordinated waves (e.g., 9–30 missiles per attack by March 2) to smaller, sporadic ones (1–4 per attack), with longer pauses between them, supporting the idea of diminishing capacity.
criticalthreats.org +2
As for the projection to near-zero launches by March 9–10, it appears plausible if the current degradation rate continues, based on assessments that Iran's missile program is being "severely degraded" and its retaliatory capabilities are "fading fast."