Fuel Crisis

[ZNP]

Formal rationing / hard purchase limits

• Sri Lanka — National Fuel Pass QR system: 25 L/week (cars), 20 L/week (tuk-tuks)
• Pakistan — 4-day work week, 50% cut to government fuel allowances, 2-week school closures
• Bangladesh — government rationing system after panic-buying
• Myanmar — odd-even license plate purchase restriction
• Cambodia — ~1/3 of petrol stations shut as de facto rationing
• Slovenia — first EU country with formal rationing

Export bans / supply-protection measures (no consumer rationing yet)

• China — banned refined fuel (gasoline/diesel/jet) exports
• Russia — total gasoline export ban through July 31; separate refinery-strike crisis (see below)

Declared emergencies / heavy demand-reduction measures

• Philippines — year-long national energy emergency; stockpiling additional reserves
• Egypt — malls/restaurants close by 9 PM, government offices by 6 PM
• Thailand — office AC restrictions, remote work push, energy-saving campaign
• Ethiopia — priority-allocation list (defense, public transport, exporters first)

Stressed but not yet formally rationing

• Uganda — down to weeks of stock
• South Sudan — rationing electricity (96% oil-generated) due to refined-product import dependence
• Zimbabwe — scrapping fuel-import taxes after 40% price spike
• Australia — 29–36 days of reserves; Liquid Fuel Emergency Act (dormant since the 1970s) on standby
• South Africa — no formal shortage, but rising prices and some self-imposed diesel rationing at stations
• Pakistan-adjacent region — India, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam all cited as dialing back consumption

Separate but compounding: Russia
Not Hormuz-driven — this is Ukrainian drone strikes degrading Russian refining capacity, not a crude shortage. Rationing now active in Moscow, northern Russia, and especially Crimea; over half of Russia's 83 federal entities reporting some form of restriction as of late June.

Root cause for the non-Russia group: Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since the Iran war began (~March 2026), cutting ~20% of global oil trade and pushing crude above $100/barrel. The IEA calls it the largest supply disruption in the global oil market's history. Countries with domestic refining capacity, reserves, and buying power (US, China, Japan, South Korea) are absorbing it as price pain; import-dependent poorer nations are the ones actually rationing.

global-fuel-crisis-tracker.md.pdf

drive.google.com

 

[SonJudgment]

It forgot Cuba, Cuba's communist cabal and ideology/pagan religion and fruit of their foreign policy mistakes has led them to arguably the current absolute worst fuel crises specifically. Time for the communists to go extinct real darwinian like they wrongly believed and for Cuba to be free and the jewel of the Caribbean once again by repenting, ending communism and all ties with the heretics of Russia, and returning to a real democracy and fair social order and praising Jesus.

 

[Mem]

On the bright side, we would all do good to fit some more walks into our routines.

 

[ZNP]

Global Fuel Crisis Tracker​

Hobab Briefing — Fault Line 1 (Iran/Energy Disruption) & Fault Line 2 (Diesel Transmission Belt) Last updated: July 2, 2026

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Scope Note (Revised)​

This tracker's purpose is to identify which nations are structurally close to fuel-driven collapse or instability — a "dominoes" watch list. It is not limited to Hormuz-driven disruption. A country belongs on this tracker if it is experiencing a serious fuel crisis for any causal reason, because the convergence risk the Hobab Briefing cares about is cumulative global fragility, not a single supply chain.

Three distinct causal chains are currently populating the list. They compound in the same time window but should be tracked separately so causation isn't conflated:

1. Hormuz/Iran-driven global crisis — Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since the Iran war began (~March 2026), cutting ~20% of global oil trade and pushing crude above $100/barrel. IEA calls it the largest supply disruption in the global oil market's history.
2. Russia refinery-strike crisis — Not Hormuz-driven. Ukrainian drone strikes have degraded Russian refining capacity, not crude access. Russia remains a top crude exporter but can't turn enough of it into usable fuel domestically.
3. Cuba — U.S. blockade / Venezuela supply cutoff — Not Hormuz-driven, not Russia-driven. A bilateral geopolitical cutoff (U.S. blockade following the ouster of Maduro in Venezuela, Cuba's main supplier) has produced the single worst humanitarian fuel outcome currently on the tracker. New tier added below.

Going forward: any nation with a severe, credibly-sourced fuel crisis should be added regardless of cause — sanctions, war, infrastructure failure, currency collapse, natural disaster, etc. The unifying criterion is proximity to domino-fall, not shared origin.

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Tier 0: Total Supply Collapse / Humanitarian Emergency (NEW)​

Country	Measure	Notes
Cuba	Ran out of oil and diesel entirely (May 2026); diesel sales cancelled, petrol strictly rationed since Feb 2026; jet fuel unavailable to airlines Feb 10–Mar 11	Distinct cause: U.S. blockade (Jan 2026 executive order) following loss of Venezuelan oil after the U.S. ousted Maduro. Cuba produces only ~40% of its own crude needs. Worst humanitarian metrics of any country on this tracker — see detail below.

Cuba detail:

• Black-market petrol rose from ~$1/liter to $10/liter following the February rationing decision.
• Multiple full island-wide grid collapses; mid-May 2026 blackout hit eastern provinces for days.
• Health system backlog of 96,000+ pending surgeries (11,000 for children); national immunization program delayed for thousands of infants.
• By March 2026, 80% of Cuba's 401 domestically produced essential medicines were below required levels; medicine supply overall at ~30% of normal.
• OHCHR (June 2026): infant mortality risen to 9.9/1,000 births; childhood cancer survival down to 65%; food production down 60%.
• ~1 million people dependent on water trucking due to diesel shortages for pumping infrastructure.
• Outmigration: ~2.5 million people (24% of population) left the island 2020–2024, accelerated by the crisis.
• Diplomatic movement: Díaz-Canel confirmed direct U.S.-Cuba talks in March 2026; Cuba released 51 political prisoners initially, then 2,000+ more by April 3. Russia has sent limited relief tankers (one allowed to dock despite blockade, early April) and called the situation a U.S. "chokehold." UN funding gap for its Cuba Action Plan stood at $68M unmet as of April 2026.
• UN experts and OHCHR have formally characterized the blockade as a violation of international law ("energy starvation").

 

[ZNP]

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Tier 1: Formal Rationing / Hard Purchase Limits​

Country	Measure	Notes
Sri Lanka	National Fuel Pass (QR system)	25 L/week cars, 20 L/week tuk-tuks
Pakistan	4-day work week, 50% cut to gov't fuel allowances	Also 2-week school closures
Bangladesh	Government rationing system	Introduced after panic-buying
Myanmar	Odd-even license plate restriction	Alternating purchase days
Cambodia	~1/3 of petrol stations shut	De facto rationing via closures
Slovenia	Formal rationing	First EU country to do so

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Tier 2: Export Bans / Supply-Protection Measures​

Country	Measure	Notes
China	Banned refined fuel exports (gasoline/diesel/jet)	Large reserves keep it relatively insulated
Russia	Total gasoline export ban through July 31, 2026	Separate refinery-strike crisis — see below

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Tier 3: Declared Emergencies / Heavy Demand-Reduction​

Country	Measure	Notes
Philippines	Year-long national energy emergency	Stockpiling additional reserves
Egypt	Malls/restaurants close 9 PM, gov't offices 6 PM	Demand-reduction only
Thailand	AC restrictions, remote work push	Public messaging campaign (TV anchors removing blazers on air)
Ethiopia	Priority-allocation list	Defense, public transport, exporters prioritized

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Tier 4: Stressed, Not Yet Formally Rationing​

Country	Status
Uganda	Down to a few weeks of stock (as of end March)
South Sudan	Rationing electricity instead (96% oil-generated power)
Zimbabwe	Scrapping fuel-import taxes after 40% price spike in under a month
Australia	29–36 days reserves; dormant 1984 Liquid Fuel Emergency Act on standby
South Africa	No formal shortage; rising prices, some self-imposed diesel limits at stations
India, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam	Dialing back consumption per commodity analysts; no formal rationing yet reported

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Russia — Separate Track (Refining Capacity Crisis)​

Cause: Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, not a Hormuz/crude issue.

• Over half of Russia's 83 federal entities reporting some form of restriction as of late June 2026.
• Active rationing: Moscow-area stations (Lukoil 100L cap, Gazprom 100–150L, ORTK 60L gas/100L diesel).
• Crimea: strictest rationing — hard caps + vouchers, some suspensions.
• Kapotnya refinery (main Moscow supplier) offline until at least end of 2026 after being hit twice.
• Putin has publicly acknowledged the shortages (rare admission).
• Countervailing view (Moscow Times analysis): only ~6% of Russians surveyed have personally encountered rationing; Kremlin subsidy spending (~2.6 trillion rubles in 2025) has kept price increases muted relative to the scale of the disruption — worth weighing against the more dramatic YouTube/aggregator framing.

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Cuba — Separate Track (U.S. Blockade / Venezuela Cutoff)​

See Tier 0 above for full detail. Key structural point for the Briefing: this is a bilateral geopolitical cutoff, not a multilateral supply-chain disruption like Hormuz or a war-damage problem like Russia's refineries. It demonstrates that a single-country fuel blockade can produce faster, deeper collapse than a diffuse global shock — relevant to any "domino" modeling in the Briefing, since it shows the mechanism (total import dependency + external chokepoint) rather than the volume of global disruption is what determines how fast a nation falls.

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Watch Items for Next Update​

• Does Hormuz remain closed / any reopening signals?
• Any new countries moving from Tier 4 → Tier 1–3 (or into the new Tier 0)?
• Russia gasoline export ban — extended past July 31 or lifted?
• Kapotnya refinery repair timeline.
• Any G7/IEA coordinated strategic reserve release beyond Japan's initial 80M barrel draw.
• Whether rationing measures ease or intensify heading into the July 4 convergence window.
• Cuba: status of US-Cuba negotiations post prisoner releases — any easing of blockade terms? Whether Mexico/Pemex or other suppliers find a workaround to the tariff threat. Russia relief shipment frequency/volume going forward. UN funding gap — closing or widening?
• Open scan: any other single-country fuel crises (sanctions-driven, war-driven, infrastructure-driven, currency-driven) that should be added under the broadened any-cause scope — not just Hormuz-adjacent nations.

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Sources to re-check on update: Reuters, RFE/RL, Moscow Times, Al Jazeera, IEA tracker, Newsweek country roundups, UN News, OHCHR, CNN, Think Global Health. Treat YouTube commentary channels as secondary aggregators only — verify against primary wire/IEA/UN reporting before adding to Briefing text.

 

[Karlon]

On the bright side, we would all do good to fit some more walks into our routines.

after all the above, you post that! that is so phunnneee & true!!!

 

[stilllearning]

The fuel crisis is what will set up America for absolute dominance. In a post from a year talking to @Squigglylines lines here was my take.

"Yeah I am hoping with the Trump admin's latest move to get involved in rare earth metals mining to secure some of our independence. Last week the admin made a $700 million commitment and partnership with MP materials. They invested $400 million in their preferred stock. Gave them as well a $150 million loan so far. Apple then made a $500 million deal with MP to secure a pipeline.

So my hope is maybe the admin may have bigger goals of independence and get involved in a partnership for building some light sweet refineries. I have read the arguments against our companies building any, with cost and the political environment depending on who holds office as objections against.

So while I have not heard any move towards the admin doing so I am hoping that the latest move by the admin towards rare earth metals may have them in some backroom considering such a move for refineries for light to just give us greater dominance and independence in energy."

Post in thread 'As an American I am thrilled to have a pro-American president!'

Jul 19, 2025

Heavy crude is the key word when it come to crude oil with most of the US crude being light crude and not heavy like Alberta's oil sands so Alberta's oil don't really need the drill baby drill part. And your right most all Texas refineries are set up to refine heavy crude and not light crude, Texas City refineries and Port Author that is which is why the US oil companies are not drilling many new wells(wrong type crude oil in the US) . And yes most oil imports already come from Alberta into the US from those oil sands so not sure it would make it cheaper if it was US soil...

• stilllearning

Well we are right now building a new refinery down in Brownseville that will refine light crude. If Alberta goes the way of indepedence and gets away from liberals who worship the creation rather than the creator. They will be able to produce heavy at greater levels that along with Venezuela will position the US to be able to drop double digit millions of refined heavy crude daily on the market.

Then the ability to refine our own oil, light crude we will be a true dominance.

Then with the push for digital currency and the the comment it will secure the dollars global dominance. They have not said how that will happen. However, I think the play will be to have congress pass legislation changing the designation of digital coins from a assest to a legal tendar coin.

Then that solves our debt problem as we can pay it down or off. The problem with all fiat currencies is that they are borrowed into existence. So for every 100 borrowed it comes with built in inflation. As if the interest is 5% then you owe back 105. So you have to constantly create more to pay off the interest. So the more money created it will constantly inflate.

Digital coins will solve the problem of gold backed dollars as well since gold is finite which hampers liquidity. The advanrtage of gold though is stabilty instead of inflation.

The admin has introduced savings accounts for newborns that the gov puts into the account. As well as introduced a new IRA for lower income levels that they will match the deposit. At first look it looks like what are they doing just creating more inflation and more debt.

However, with a designation of digital currency being a legal coin. The Constitution states that Congresss has the power to coin money. Every coin that the Treasury department coins is not borrowed into existence. So it comes interest free. Coins are also not counted in the money supply. Recent legislation has tied the value of stable coins at a dollar.

So you create demand for dollars by introducing newborn savings accounts and IRA's that double the liquidity. As a dollar match doubles the amount. A $100 match on a hundred is a 100% percent return yearly and doubles the amount. As well as government funding the savings account.

After legislation changing the designation to a coin that only Congress can create absent interest. With the value of them and the dollar tied. You have now created currency that is stable like gold that can pay down the debt or allow you to keep the debt or dollars in circulation at any rate you find most advantageous. As debt is paid off those dollars are destroyed so it lowers the amount in circulation making the dollar stronger.

Then you make the dollar needed even more since you are the dominant energy producer. We will have to carry some debt to keep the dollar from becoming to strong as we have a direct line. Where other nations have a double process. Or since they can't print dollars they have to print local currency and then buy dollars.

So we will have to keep some debt or keep creating it via the Fed to keep the value lower. As since other nations have a two step process a higher value dollar could destroy their currency. If to high could push countries into a hyper inflation from having to run the printing press non stop so they can buy dollars.

Anway as the worldwide famine that Joesph was involved in made Egypt the undisputed superpower of it's day. A energy famine will do the same for the US. The x-factor in all this is TDS and elections as it is the unknown and can't be planned for with any amount of certainty.