They Said 50% of Jobs Will Vanish — Here’s the Truth
His claim is that "this time it's different" is bogus. We know that history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme.
I don't disagree.
The industrial revolution put horses and oxen out of work. All you have to do is count how many blacksmiths are still in business in NYC to see how extensive those layoffs were to beasts of burden.
Likewise with the Tech revolution, I would argue that AI is the capstone to the tech revolution. There has been a great dislocation as many jobs have disappeared only to be replaced by others. But all those jobs were simply paving the way for AI. I would also argue that the Tech revolution should be seen as the capstone of the industrial revolution. With the internet and satellites and big data they have laid the groundwork to place AI in charge of many of these "smart machines".
The question is not whether or not AI can think and problem solve the way we can, the question is can AI do half of our white collar jobs? For example, consider a teacher, they have many different jobs they must do. Perhaps I don't want AI creating the lessons, but once they are created it can deliver them to a million children better than humans can. We could have five excellent teachers make the lesson plans, and then AI replace 10,000 classroom teachers to deliver those lessons. AI is better at individualized instruction and it is better at monitoring progress and advising students and parents on that progress. Teachers are given 5 hours of classes a day because of the other jobs like grading papers, monitoring progress, advising parents and students, and preparing lessons. But with AI you could have "classroom monitors" that have 8 hours of classes a day because AI is doing everything. These people could be paid minimum wage which is half to a fourth of what most teachers are paid.
In fact most teachers take 3-5 years before they are average classroom teachers and ten years before they are much better than average. During those ten years we usually see half of the people who became teachers quit. Therefore, you could replace 50% of your teachers and see a very big improvement in your outcomes. But that would most likely begin with a hiring freeze followed by letting everyone go that didn't have tenure (a process that can take as much as five years). A typical career in teaching is 20 to 25 years and we usually see twice as many teachers in the 0-5 year range as we do in the 5-10 year, etc. We also see about 3% turnover each year due to people retiring and resigning. So a hiring freeze and layoff of all those without tenure could easily account for a 15% cut in staff. You then offer incentives for early retirement and that could boost this to a 20% reduction.
After that it takes three years of bad observations to justify firing someone. However, there are ways for school systems to make it miserable for individuals to work there while at the same time letting them see the writing on the wall that they will be fired. That would probably see a doubling in the people quitting so a year into this you would probably see 6% a year decrease in staff.
The point is it could take five or ten years under normal circumstances to reduce the number of teachers by 50%. However, you can cut down the number of new hires by 100% immediately.
If teachers were the only industry affected this might be minor, but I would expect to see the same thing in every white collar industry.