Trump v Clinton who will win and why they will win

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V

Voldemort

Guest
#101
#101
Sinnerman said:
Did conservatives learn from their mistakes after McCain lost? How did they learn from their mistakes after Romney lost. How will they learn from their mistakes after Trump loses? How is it a mistake on the part of republicans that Hispanic voters are doubling in numbers? The only mistake is not listening to those who said Hispanic voters will increase exponentially, and not trying to win those votes. However, to win those votes, you have to use a similar strategy as you would if you wanted to win most black votes. You have to make promises that exceed those of the democrats. More handouts. More speeches saying you are victims of white oppression. More preferential treatment. More than democrats are offering. Or, do you stand by your conservative principals of personal responsibility and lose more elections?

I'll be repeating this after the November election. It was simply a numbers game and you can't "fix" it. Blacks and Hispanics are never going to vote in large numbers for republicans. Therefore, republicans will lose most elections in the future. The numbers of whites is not growing. The numbers of Hispanic voters is growing quite rapidly. Do the math.
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I'm not sure Hispanics and Blacks are comparable when discussing voting tendencies. While it is true that more Hispanics will be voting for Hillary than for Trump, George Bush was loved by many Hispanics. In 2004, he received about 44% of the Hispanic vote.

We could just assume Hispanics are "looking for handouts" as for why they will be voting Democrat if we want a superficial explanation, or we can dive deeper into the issue and analyze the candidates (Trump), the economy, etc... We could look at why Hispanics loved Bush so much. What were we doing then that we aren't now?
 
J

jennymae

Guest
#102
#102
Voldemort said:
I'm not sure Hispanics and Blacks are comparable when discussing voting tendencies. While it is true that more Hispanics will be voting for Hillary than for Trump, George Bush was loved by many Hispanics. In 2004, he received about 44% of the Hispanic vote.

We could just assume Hispanics are "looking for handouts" as for why they will be voting Democrat if we want a superficial explanation, or we can dive deeper into the issue and analyze the candidates (Trump), the economy, etc... We could look at why Hispanics loved Bush so much. What were we doing then that we aren't now?
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Trump is, by nature, a dividing personality. He has told the public that he will raise a wall on the Mexican border, and I don't think attitudes like that sits well with the Hispanics. Rather than saying the Hispanics wants more handouts, I think it is time to see, like what you're thinking, what depends on the candidates, and what depends on the two parties.

I do firmly believe that Hispanics are not dependent on handouts, and that the reason for their Democratic support this general has a lot to do with one Donald Trump. By maintaining a shady relation to one David Duke, also he is pushing away black folks. So, what does that leave us? Yes, 1) a candidate either too politically inexperienced to realize what will take him to office, 2) a candidate too dependent on angry voters that is opposed to just about anything, or 3), a candidate that doesn't want to win.
 
FlSnookman7

FlSnookman7

Senior Member
#103
Jun 27, 2015
1,125
135
63
#103
jennymae said:
Trump is, by nature, a dividing personality. He has told the public that he will raise a wall on the Mexican border, and I don't think attitudes like that sits well with the Hispanics. Rather than saying the Hispanics wants more handouts, I think it is time to see, like what you're thinking, what depends on the candidates, and what depends on the two parties.

I do firmly believe that Hispanics are not dependent on handouts, and that the reason for their Democratic support this general has a lot to do with one Donald Trump. By maintaining a shady relation to one David Duke, also he is pushing away black folks. So, what does that leave us? Yes, 1) a candidate either too politically inexperienced to realize what will take him to office, 2) a candidate too dependent on angry voters that is opposed to just about anything, or 3), a candidate that doesn't want to win.
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Really? Because apparently the wall Mexico built between Mexico and Guatemala sits pretty well....odd that its ok for Mexico to build a southern wall but so offensive that one be built on their northern border.
 
Sinnerman

Sinnerman

Banned
#104
Oct 16, 2015
824
12
0
#104
Voldemort said:
I'm not sure Hispanics and Blacks are comparable when discussing voting tendencies. While it is true that more Hispanics will be voting for Hillary than for Trump, George Bush was loved by many Hispanics. In 2004, he received about 44% of the Hispanic vote.

We could just assume Hispanics are "looking for handouts" as for why they will be voting Democrat if we want a superficial explanation, or we can dive deeper into the issue and analyze the candidates (Trump), the economy, etc... We could look at why Hispanics loved Bush so much. What were we doing then that we aren't now?
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I suppose republicans can spend a few million dollars to have a study done. You're assuming that when given the reasons, republicans will make a dramatic change to their values in hopes of winning votes. Well, Trump was telling the convention audience that he is embracing the LGBT community, while at the same time, the RNC crafted a platform that stated the opposite. The vast majority of blacks and Hispanics are lower income and will vote for democrats who tell them the granny state will care for them from cradle to grave.

George Bush did not mention building walls along the border or deporting illegals or increasing border patrol and interdiction. Now that republicans have gone on record as wanting those things, there is no turning the clock back. To win a presidential election, a republican would need 60-80% of Hispanic votes. I believe Romney received something closer to 22%. Trump with be lucky to get half of that. Hispanics barely got registered or showed up to vote when Bush ran. Now they are what determines who wins. They don't care about ISIS or trade agreements. They care about walls and deportations of friends and relatives. They hear republicans talk about law enforcement and border enforcement and they hear democrats talking about giving them drivers licenses and free college tuition, food stamps, and other social services. Republicans will never get more than 20% of the Hispanic vote. Those days are gone.
 
R

RachelBibleStudent

Guest
#105
#105
Voldemort said:
I'm not sure Hispanics and Blacks are comparable when discussing voting tendencies. While it is true that more Hispanics will be voting for Hillary than for Trump, George Bush was loved by many Hispanics. In 2004, he received about 44% of the Hispanic vote.

We could just assume Hispanics are "looking for handouts" as for why they will be voting Democrat if we want a superficial explanation, or we can dive deeper into the issue and analyze the candidates (Trump), the economy, etc... We could look at why Hispanics loved Bush so much. What were we doing then that we aren't now?
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i think it is the other way around...what are the republicans doing now that they weren't doing back then?

you will find that the decline in popularity of the republican party among latinos has a pretty clear starting date...
 
J

jennymae

Guest
#106
#106
FlSnookman7 said:
Really? Because apparently the wall Mexico built between Mexico and Guatemala sits pretty well....odd that its ok for Mexico to build a southern wall but so offensive that one be built on their northern border.
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I am not saying the wall is offensive or is not offensive, I'm saying that Trump is doing his best to offend the Hispanics by talking about raising that wall.
 
R

RachelBibleStudent

Guest
#107
#107
jennymae said:
Trump is, by nature, a dividing personality. He has told the public that he will raise a wall on the Mexican border, and I don't think attitudes like that sits well with the Hispanics. Rather than saying the Hispanics wants more handouts, I think it is time to see, like what you're thinking, what depends on the candidates, and what depends on the two parties.

I do firmly believe that Hispanics are not dependent on handouts, and that the reason for their Democratic support this general has a lot to do with one Donald Trump. By maintaining a shady relation to one David Duke, also he is pushing away black folks. So, what does that leave us? Yes, 1) a candidate either too politically inexperienced to realize what will take him to office, 2) a candidate too dependent on angry voters that is opposed to just about anything, or 3), a candidate that doesn't want to win.
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polls have shown that the vast majority of hispanic voters are socially conservative...these -would- be reliable 'christian right' republican voters...remember bush almost getting a majority of them...were it not for the republican obsession with border walls and deportations that has been brewing for the past decade and is personified in donald trump...
 
J

jennymae

Guest
#108
#108
RachelBibleStudent said:
polls have shown that the vast majority of hispanic voters are socially conservative...these -would- be reliable 'christian right' republican voters...remember bush almost getting a majority of them...were it not for the republican obsession with border walls and deportations that has been brewing for the past decade and is personified in donald trump...
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Which makes me wonder, why is he leaning so heavily on that part of the electorate? His advisers must have told him what kind of people that makes up the electorate. It doesn't add up.
 
R

RachelBibleStudent

Guest
#109
#109
we are now at the point where literally the only way for the republican party to get hispanic voters back will be to specifically and personally repudiate donald trump and his supporters...as well as all talk of border walls and mass deportations...

for that matter repudiating donald trump and his supporters and what he represents is also the only way the republican party is ever getting -my- vote back...

ironically that is more likely to happen the more obvious an electoral failure trumpism turns out to be...counterintuitively the republicans wanting a viable party going forward after this year should be hoping for a landslide defeat...
 
R

RachelBibleStudent

Guest
#110
#110
jennymae said:
Which makes me wonder, why is he leaning so heavily on that part of the electorate? His advisers must have told him what kind of people that makes up the electorate. It doesn't add up.
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trump knew that the anti immigration camp made up a sizable fringe of the republican electorate as well as much of the base of several minor parties such as the libertarian party...and he relied on those voters to win the republican nomination...

unfortunately for him the base he used to win the republican nomination is far too small to win the general election...and his base is so mutually exclusive from the average american's ideology that expanding his base beyond that core group is an almost impossible task...even scaring enough reluctant republicans with thoughts of hillary clinton is unlikely to be enough...

winning the republican nomination was basically a pyrrhic victory for trump...
 
Sirk

Sirk

Banned
#111
Mar 2, 2016
8,896
112
0
#111
RachelBibleStudent said:
trump knew that the anti immigration camp made up a sizable fringe of the republican electorate as well as much of the base of several minor parties such as the libertarian party...and he relied on those voters to win the republican nomination...

unfortunately for him the base he used to win the republican nomination is far too small to win the general election...and his base is so mutually exclusive from the average american's ideology that expanding his base beyond that core group is an almost impossible task...even scaring enough reluctant republicans with thoughts of hillary clinton is unlikely to be enough...

winning the republican nomination was basically a pyrrhic victory for trump...
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I think it is far to early to make this determination. It remains to be seen what his strategy will be for the general. And Hillary is deeply flawed and vulnerable.
 
seed_time_harvest

seed_time_harvest

Senior Member
#113
Dec 9, 2011
13,741
1,728
113
#113
Desdichado said:
Trump just isn't careful with precise wording. It's part of his charm.
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Kind of like a pit bull dog Is charming until It bites your hinder parts,now how do you repair the damage when you were saying all along"he won't bite"?

Just making a anology about Trump.
 
Willie-T

Willie-T

Banned
#114
Feb 7, 2015
22,418
413
0
#114
seed_time_harvest said:
Kind of like a pit bull dog Is charming until It bites your hinder parts,now how do you repair the damage when you were saying all along"he won't bite"?

Just making a anology about Trump.
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I think a man who can buy and sell several hundred thousand like me and you, and has survived thousands of confrontations with every sort of person imaginable all around the world, in hundreds of cultures, just might have an inkling of how to say what he needs to say, and get away with using the words he has always used.
 
M

Mitspa

Guest
#115
#115
seed_time_harvest said:
Kind of like a pit bull dog Is charming until It bites your hinder parts,now how do you repair the damage when you were saying all along"he won't bite"?

Just making a anology about Trump.
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Stop trying to funny ..it don't work for you :(
 
seed_time_harvest

seed_time_harvest

Senior Member
#118
Dec 9, 2011
13,741
1,728
113
#118
Willie-T said:
I think a man who can buy and sell several hundred thousand like me and you, and has survived thousands of confrontations with every sort of person imaginable all around the world, in hundreds of cultures, just might have an inkling of how to say what he needs to say, and get away with using the words he has always used.
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Being POTUS Is not the same as running a buisness.

I just dont understand how someone can urinate on my head and convince me "Its raining"
 
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