ChatGPT is an Open Source AI

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OpenAI Flip-Flops and '10% Chance of Outperforming Humans in Every Task by 2027' - 3K AI Researchers

Consider the title. Already AI outperforms humans in Chess, in Go and in Jeopardy as well as in being a cashier and also in manufacturing in 3d printing and also as robotics on an assembly line. Drones are outperforming fighter jets with pilots, robots are being used for defusing bombs.

My point is there are many "tasks" that AI is already outperforming humans, so there is no doubt that there will be many more tasks by 2027. However, the question is "will it be every task"? Also, look, they have 3,000 AI researchers. I suspect they are working on a thousand tasks.

But it gets worse, they are developing AI that can be trained by watching a Youtube video, imagine how many tasks AI could learn the minute it can learn from a youtube video.

Now consider this, you are a senior in HS, you are applying to college for fall of 2024 hoping to graduate in 2028. What is the point?

Consider this from a different angle, You are the CEO of a Fortune 500 company. Generally you hire 50 lawyers a year. But you know that you will have AI by June of 2024 that can outperform any paralegal in doing research and writing up briefs. You also know that AI is currently performing at the 85% level on law exams, not as high as the people you generally hire, but it is projected to perform at the 95% level by the Fall of 2024. That is in line with the people you hire except the AI performs at the 95% level in engineering, Math, accounting, and medicine as well. Are you still going to hire lawyers our of law school? Are you still going to hire accountants or CPAs? But even if you still do, will you in 2025? I suspect the layoffs we are seeing the tech industry we will see in all Fortune 500 companies beginning in 2024.

If you are a multinational corporation it is very important to speak two or three languages. AI can speak a hundred languages.

This is not me speaking, they are already musing that by 2027 AI might outperform humans in every task, why would you hire someone in 2026 if they are obsolete in 2027? To perform at the top of an industry usually takes ten years, so the people coming out of college are not performing at the top end of humans. Why hire someone in 2024 if AI will be outperforming them six months later? If AI is doing 100% of tasks better by 2027, where is it at in 2026?

No one wants to deal with layoffs, better not to hire someone in 2024 that you will layoff in 2025.

 

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Shenzhen Deserted: Factories, Shops, Worker Dorms All Demolished! Now a Relic of the World’s Factory

Why do you think factories in China are closing and leaving China? I think it is because of machine learning, 3d and AI.

Shenzhen was a city of 18 million, by comparison NYC is 10 million.

 

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As of 6 months ago 25 million jobs in the US are vulnerable to AI -- today 77 million jobs could be replaced

America to hit 82% Unemployment: I have the data to back it up

Dubious methods -- six months ago he said there were no general purpose robots with high dexterity, that may have just changed, so he would have to revise this estimate upwards! He gives a vulnerability score.

To his credit he has done the job of automating jobs away.

If he is right you will see the most vulnerable jobs (people who sit in front of a computer screen all day long) being automated away first. Since we are seeing that now I figured we should take this seriously. Also, we now have thousands of skilled programmers out of work who can now help automate away other jobs.

He has three categories, so although high dexterity jobs are low risk six months ago, as soon as you have a robot with high dexterity many of those jobs immediately become high risk

 

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The thing to understand is that 6 months ago they were looking at automating away 77 million jobs. You can be sure that there are people today working on this at many different companies and universities. This is not an academic exercise, they do this to implement these changes. Just like with robotics on assembly lines, or self checkout cashiers, or replacing guys who pump gas, they have calculated the ROI and this is now the best way to cut costs and improve the bottom line. In an example of how perverse the system is, they have supported minimum wage increases because it makes it more profitable for selling AI to replace the people. You create a crisis for these companies because you already have the solution you want to sell them.

 

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Notice the timeline -- 5 to 20 years. If you were to hire a college graduate from Harvard Business school, he is 25 years old. In 5 to 20 years he is useless, that would be when he is 30-45 years old. But now he is your problem. However, although AI cannot replace the 40 year old version today, it can replace the 26 year old first year version.

The AI can't replace these top of the line lawyers today, but they can assist them, perhaps reducing their workload by 10-20%, meaning there is no need to hire new people and instead you can give a directive to become much tougher on the observations and annual review. In addition to freezing new hires you will need to encourage early retirement and by the end of the year begin layoffs.

IMF Report: AGI destroys all jobs within 5 to 20 years! Frontier of Automation expands beyond humans

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. If you are a COO or CEO or CFO at a fortune 500 company you have to prepare for the idea that in 5 years you don't need any of your employees. Hopefully you still have a job for the next 20 years, but prepare for them all being gone in five years.

Imagine I work for GM, if all our jobs are gone in 5 years what about other companies and what will that do to demand for cars?

 

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IMF Report: AGI destroys all jobs within 5 to 20 years! Frontier of Automation expands beyond humans

The scary thing is that the 20 year estimate is far less likely than the 5 year estimate. What this is really saying is that in 5 years AI will be able to do all jobs in existence today. The only exception will be a Nicola Tesla, or Albert Einstein.

 

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IMF Report: AGI destroys all jobs within 5 to 20 years! Frontier of Automation expands beyond humans

Wow! This video blew my mind!

OK, he says he thinks in the next 12 months we will reach AGI in the lab, but the reason it takes 5 years is because the law will not allow certain jobs to be automated.

For example, if you are trying a case it is not legal for ChatGPT to be your lawyer. It can be a tool the lawyer uses, but the law requires someone who is certified to be a lawyer. However, the law does permit you to defend yourself and that becomes much easier and cheaper with ChatGPT.

The same is true of doctors. You can ask ChatGPT health questions and it could certainly help you, but if you got to a clinic or hospital by law only people can be licensed to be doctors.

Now consider what would speed up the process, if people lost confidence in doctors and lawyers.

For example, suppose there were a vaccine that was not properly tested, it harmed people, and yet doctors all over the world prescribed this harmful treatment and worse, others based on the advice of these doctors mandated this harmful treatment. That would create a crisis in confidence which could lead to quicker implementation of AI doctors to oversee human doctors.

Or suppose we have high profile cases of lawyers and AG's bringing spurious cases that are obviously unconstitutional, wasted taxpayer money, and worse, they were corrupt. So we learn they were doing many things simply to bill more money. Obviously this is hypothetical but suppose some despicable woman put her adulterous lover in a job he was obviously not qualified to do, paid him $750k and it was all unconstitutional waste of taxpayer money and fraud. A case like that could create a crisis in confidence and therefore help people to quickly see the need for AI to judge a cases merits prior to spending any money.

Bottom line they can replace all workers by the end of 2024, the only hold up will be the law.

 

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What they will need are powerful marketing tools to help with the transition to a world ruled by AI, lets call it "The Beast system".

Deep fake, chat bots, and AI writing the news, controlling news feeds, algorithms that can shadow ban as well as identify posts that need to be silenced.

I would say that when you see those tools being rolled out to censor and silence people they are preparing to roll out this beast system.

 

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Eureka!

Wow, Robots don't need to be programmed anymore! Great news! Just when we thought we would have to hire a whole bunch of people to train the robots we learn we don't have to do that! AI is not only replacing jobs that exist but also replace jobs that we had thought would be created.

Nvidia Reveals EUREKA: Self Teaching Robot Breakthrough? (AGI)

 

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BREAKING: NVIDIA Drops BOMBSHELL Partners With Tesla Bot Competitors

 

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27 What I tell you in darkness, that speak ye in light: and what ye hear in the ear, that preach ye upon the housetops. 28 And fear not them which kill the body, but are not able to kill the soul: but rather fear him which is able to destroy both soul and body in hell.

 

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If we are going to achieve AGI in the lab this year, 2024, why is the IMF projecting 5 years at a minimum to take all the jobs?

Could it possibly have to do with Trump probably winning the election in 2024 and the IMF predicting that will slow things down for the next five years?

 

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Could AGI Run the Government? I think so... let's unpack how!

A third of the labor force is employed one way or another by government. Therefore there is a tremendous political pressure to not replace their jobs. However, suppose there were a financial crisis, the government was bankrupt, and so you had to reduce the budget across the board by 20%. You could do that with AI.

The problem is that the two biggest expenses of the government, debt service and Social Security would not see much savings from AI. So to be real, most departments in the government would need a 40% cut in their budget! That is feasible but stunning!. The hardest would be the military, but imagine you stop building billion dollar fighter jets and multi billion dollar ships with drones that cost 0.1% of the cost. Replace soldiers with these robotic dogs with machine guns. Replace snipers with micro drones.

 

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Citigroup is cutting 10% of its workforce in CEO Jane Fraser’s corporate overhaul
PUBLISHED FRI, JAN 12 20249:59 AM ESTUPDATED FRI, JAN 12 202411:57 AM EST

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/12/citigroup-cutting-10percent-of-workforce.html

Citigroup said it was cutting 10% of its workforce in a bid to help boost the embattled bank’s results and stock price.

About 20,000 employees will be let go over the “medium term,” New York-based Citigroup said Friday in a slideshow tied to fourth-quarter earnings. While it wasn’t immediately clear how long that is, the bank has previously used that term to denote a three- to five-year period.

Wow, looks like the layoffs are ahead of schedule. If this is due to AI expect Chase, BOA, Wells Fargo, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, and a bunch of mainland Chinese banks to announce similar layoffs in the next month or two.

 

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NBC News lays off dozens in latest bad news for US workforce. See 2024 job cuts so far.
USA TODAY confirmed the NBC News layoffs on Friday. Other companies starting off the new year by slashing their workforces include Google, Twitch, Amazon and Discord.

Emilee Coblentz
USA TODAY

Other 2024 job cuts we know of so far
Along with a recent survey showing 85% of workers anxious over what the new year may mean for their jobs, LinkedIn shared a list of cuts that have been announced so far this year.

• Universal Music Group will lay off hundreds of employees, Bloomberg reports.
• Citigroup will eliminate 20,000 jobs to cut costs by $2.5 billion, Bloomberg reports.
• Disney's Pixar could cut staff by 20% this year, TechCrunch reports.
• Discord will eliminate 17% of its employees to "sharpen focus," The Verge reports.
• Amazon will lay off hundreds of Prime Video and MGM Studios workers, The Hollywood Reporter writes, as well as 5% of its Audible staff.
• BlackRock will lay off 3% of its global workforce, Bloomberg reports.
• The NFL has offered buyouts to around 200 of its 1,100-person staff, CNBC reports.
• Rent the Runway will cut 10% of its corporate employees, including its COO, Bloomberg reports.
• Unity Software will lay off 1,800 people (25% of its workforce), Reuters reports.
• Duolingo will eliminate 10% of its contractor positions, Bloomberg reports.
• Newell Brands, Sharpie and Rubbermaid producer, will cut 7% of its office roles, The Wall Street Journal reports.
• VideoAmp will lay off 20% of its employees, AdAge reports.
• Xerox will lay off 15% of its workforce, the Wall Street Journal reports.
• The Messenger will cut around two dozen jobs, The New York Times reports.
• Cheddar has furloughed workers due to "unforeseen" factors, The New York Times reports.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/01/12/2024-job-cuts-nbc-news-google/72207810007/

 

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The business of replacing your job is booming

Crazy AI Tech Everywhere (The CES 2024 Experience)

 

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The business of replacing your job is booming

Crazy AI Tech Everywhere (The CES 2024 Experience)

4 minutes he shows a cool translator tool that will certainly take most translator jobs.

But, most of those gadgets are just that, gimmicky gadgets. People are still under the mistaken belief that AI will improve the common man's life. They are bringing out expensive toys at a time when people will all be losing their jobs.

What is going to sell is AI that has a good return on investment.

 

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The business of replacing your job is booming

Crazy AI Tech Everywhere (The CES 2024 Experience)

8 minutes in he shows robot lawnmowers and robot pool cleaners. I can imagine this will take many jobs away. For example, perhaps a robot lawnmower is too expensive for the average homeowner to justify, but how about the guy with a lawn care business? Using the robot 8 hours a day is going to give you a much greater ROI than the guy who uses it one hour every two weeks.

Consider something else, suppose an elderly person needs to go into assisted living. These places are twice as expensive as renting an apartment. You can pay an extra 2k a month. So if they can make a robot for 120k that can work 4 shifts a week, and do all the jobs that are needed, it will have a 200% ROI and the cost of assisted living will probably drop by 1k a month. I mention this because elderly people have the money to pay for this stuff.

 

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The business of replacing your job is booming

Crazy AI Tech Everywhere (The CES 2024 Experience)

8 minutes in he describes robots that can work as a barrista (Dunkin Donuts, Starbucks, McDonalds, etc). Robots that can be stir fry cooks, robots that can work as receptionists and robots that can work in hospitals, etc.

 

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I saw something else that I suspect will become widely adopted. Cameras with AI. Suppose you are a 7/11, your camera gets a feed from the police for wanted suspects, people of interests, fugitives, etc. Wouldn't a store or bank want to know that the person walking in is wanted by the law? The camera spots such a person and immediately the police and the cashier is alerted. Imagine how difficult it would be for wanted fugitives to hide. Anything that makes it easier for the cops to do their job should reduce crime.

AI is also very good at reading micro expressions and prior to committing a crime a persons face will express that. Getting a heads up thirty seconds before a crime is committed could be a huge game changer for gas station attendants and store clerks. It could also help the police in apprehending perps. You will probably have airports, train stations and bus stations also use these.

They also have this tech embedded in glasses. Cops and security guards could wear these and identify by name every person entering a building. They would know if they worked in the building or not, and of course if they were wanted by the police they would get a heads up.