How likely are you to find your special someone? (A mathematical breakdown)

[djness]

How about I exercise my people skills? Yes. I'll do that. Here is the conversation you and I would have if I were to post what I'm thinking.

Me: Your math is wrong.

AAA: No it's not. How is it wrong?

Me: You've left out so many elements that your numbers are skewed.

You: Oh yeah? Like what?

Me: Like psychology, like God, like the fact that we don't actually know how many people there are on earth, like the fact that some of the people in marriages, dating relationships, and those who aren't ready to date might be available, and that when you attempt to run stats on something as fluid as people and relationships, the math is soft. It can't be counted on.

You: My three sources are perfectly scientific and valid!

Me: Perhaps they are, but you didn't take enough elements into consideration. You ran the numbers because you're feeling lonely and you're wondering where Miss Right is. You selected components out of population stats, not out of true likelihood, nor did you think about what makes up a person. The parameters of your research are flawed and incomplete at best.

Now, this is where you'd do one of three things. 1) You'd fight and defend your methodology, 2) You'd see the errors you made and we would have a valid and rational conversation about the hinge that have been truly bothering you, or 3) You'd blankly stare at me before you got up and left.

I think you'd first defend your argument and when I wouldn't back down, you'd leave.


How'd I do?

I think with this response you just knocked off 1 from your chances. Way...to...go.

 

[Bryancampbell]

I say...point A to point 7....(sometimes that's rare to go, but that's why u have to step outside the box )

 

[arwen83]

This post from another thread got me thinking on how picky is picky.

There are, give or take, 7 Billion people on this planet. That's 7,000,000,000.

If you don't have ANY standards, that's 7 Billion. There's a great chance you'll find someone.

Ruling out one gender, that makes 3.5 Billion people. You're down to 50%

Then only take people in the U.S. 157,000,000 people remain. You're down to 2.2%

Reduce that even further to people who actually live in the same state as you. Let's take California, since it has the most people in it. Down to 19,000,000 people or .27%

73-76% of people in the U.S. identify as Christian, but only 9% of people actually believe in the Bible, having what is called a "Biblical Worldview". That brings us down to 1,710,000 people and .024% of the total world population.

So far we've eliminated 99.976% of the world population, or 99.952% of all opposite-gendered people. We're well past the 99.9% threshold.

Age is certainly a common factor. In the U.S. in 2005, 7% of people were age 20-25 and 7% were aged 25-30. 30-35 was also at just a bit less than 7%. So we'll take two of these age groups, giving a reasonable plus or minus 5-10 years difference between you and your significant other. So 14% of our group still standing would be 239,400 people. .00336% of the world population.

Now you have to eliminate married people. The average age to get married is 28, and about 50% of people in the U.S. at that age are currently married. That's 119,700 compatible people. .00168% of the total world population. However, it is .315% of the total population of California (again, using a heavily populated state. Your results may vary). If you somehow met every person in the state, 1 out of every 300 people would meet these standards.

But then you have to factor in people you get along with, who you find attractive. Results at this point are highly variable, so lets go out on a limb and say that you are attracted to and/or compatible with a full 10% of people you meet. That brings us down to 11,970 people (again, out of the entire WORLD)

But a relationship is a two-way road. Only 10% of those people will also find you attractive. That makes 1,197 people. 1,197 people that you could start a decent, Godly relationship with. That's .0000171% of the world's population, or 99.9999829% of the world's population eliminated.

That is 1 out of 5,847,953.

So...putting this into perspective...if you went out and met 5,847,953 people at random one of them would likely be compatible with you. Or just meeting people in your state (or wide-general area), you would be compatible with one out of every 31,746 of them.

So if you want to be a little more practical, just take that number and divide it by the number of people in your general metropolitan area. If you live in an area of 500,000 people, there are likely 15-16 people near you that you would be compatible with.

Sources:
https://www.barna.org/barna-update/...hristians-over-the-past-13-years#.Ud3BFvmR81M
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
Calculated Risk: Demographics GIF: 1920 - 2005

HOLY MOLY!! IMPRESSIVE!
*hears the Christian Mingle commerical in the background* "Find God's Match For You! (among the 15 or 16 people near you. If that doesn't work out, just give up and join a convent. God can do only so much. Not our fault that you are too damn picky)"

 

[presidente]

There are some problems with your reasoning here. If you stay in your same state, you meet people in that state. You don't need to use the percentage of people that live in your state or country in your calculation of chances. A lot of single people are open to marrying any Christian in the world.

If you hang around that small percentage of people who are Bible believing by going to churches and Christian activities, then your chances of meeting one of these people who happens to be single is not so miniscule. A better calculation would be X percentage of the Christian population in my state is single and in the age range I am looking for. I will encounter Y number of people in Z years (the time during which you wish to marry.) Use that to calculate your chances. Let's say 50% of people are unmarried, and 30% of them are in your age range that you could marry. If you find 10% of them attractive, what's that, like 15 people out of a church of 1000? In five years, if you visit different churches and events, you might meet 5,000 Christians, so that's 75 potential partners.

And there is the issue of God's sovereign hand as opposed to everything just being random chance. Also, notice that those 50% of people somehow managed to get married themselves.

 

[dliz]

all these numbers are giving me headache.

 

[NodMyHeadLikeYeah]

This post from another thread got me thinking on how picky is picky.

There are, give or take, 7 Billion people on this planet. That's 7,000,000,000.

If you don't have ANY standards, that's 7 Billion. There's a great chance you'll find someone.

Ruling out one gender, that makes 3.5 Billion people. You're down to 50%

Then only take people in the U.S. 157,000,000 people remain. You're down to 2.2%

Reduce that even further to people who actually live in the same state as you. Let's take California, since it has the most people in it. Down to 19,000,000 people or .27%

73-76% of people in the U.S. identify as Christian, but only 9% of people actually believe in the Bible, having what is called a "Biblical Worldview". That brings us down to 1,710,000 people and .024% of the total world population.

So far we've eliminated 99.976% of the world population, or 99.952% of all opposite-gendered people. We're well past the 99.9% threshold.

Age is certainly a common factor. In the U.S. in 2005, 7% of people were age 20-25 and 7% were aged 25-30. 30-35 was also at just a bit less than 7%. So we'll take two of these age groups, giving a reasonable plus or minus 5-10 years difference between you and your significant other. So 14% of our group still standing would be 239,400 people. .00336% of the world population.

Now you have to eliminate married people. The average age to get married is 28, and about 50% of people in the U.S. at that age are currently married. That's 119,700 compatible people. .00168% of the total world population. However, it is .315% of the total population of California (again, using a heavily populated state. Your results may vary). If you somehow met every person in the state, 1 out of every 300 people would meet these standards.

But then you have to factor in people you get along with, who you find attractive. Results at this point are highly variable, so lets go out on a limb and say that you are attracted to and/or compatible with a full 10% of people you meet. That brings us down to 11,970 people (again, out of the entire WORLD)

But a relationship is a two-way road. Only 10% of those people will also find you attractive. That makes 1,197 people. 1,197 people that you could start a decent, Godly relationship with. That's .0000171% of the world's population, or 99.9999829% of the world's population eliminated.

That is 1 out of 5,847,953.

So...putting this into perspective...if you went out and met 5,847,953 people at random one of them would likely be compatible with you. Or just meeting people in your state (or wide-general area), you would be compatible with one out of every 31,746 of them.

So if you want to be a little more practical, just take that number and divide it by the number of people in your general metropolitan area. If you live in an area of 500,000 people, there are likely 15-16 people near you that you would be compatible with.

Sources:
https://www.barna.org/barna-update/...hristians-over-the-past-13-years#.Ud3BFvmR81M
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
Calculated Risk: Demographics GIF: 1920 - 2005

To...... many.......... NUMBERS!!!!

 

[RickShafer]

"That special someone" is a fallacy.
Based on romantic notions.

 

[rachelsedge]

So if you want to be a little more practical, just take that number and divide it by the number of people in your general metropolitan area. If you live in an area of 500,000 people, there are likely 15-16 people near you that you would be compatible with.

I grew up in an area of 202 people and am now living in an area of 15,000 (though, technically 30,000 because there's a town literally right next to mine). Guess I need to move to the city, huh?

I kid, I kid. I don't want to live in a city.

 

[presidente]

If you have an identical twin, what are the chances you will ever meet that twin.

Let's see. There are 7 billion people in the world, so are the odds 1 out of 7 billion?

Wait a minute. Most people aren't adopted. Assuming your twin is alive, the chances are you will meet your twin in your own house every day growing up and at family gatherings later on in life.

 

[Bluecomet]

You do not have an identical twin. Even if you have a twin brother or sister you are not identical. Check your finger prints.

 

[twill]

I'm feeling very mathematical today.

Also, if anyone thinks these numbers seem bleak, it's not quite as bad as the numbers would say (statistics don't tell the whole story). While they may only be one out of tens of thousands of people near you, these people will likely congregate in the same places as you (such as a good church). Since the Christian thing brought us down to 9%, you can multiply your chances about 10 times if you go to church full of other Bible-believing folks. That would make it around 1 out of every 3,174 church folks. And remember, all you're looking for is 1.

That being said, I don't think I'd eliminate the different states from the equation… I consider myself far more likely to meet someone out of state than in the state I'm living in.

 

[Donkeyfish07]

Are you assuming the gender ratio is 1:1? I'm not positive but I'm pretty sure women out number men 1.5 or 2 to 1. I got a better way to calculate though with a more reasonable goal.

Approaching 3 girls your highly attracted to(skipping married/committed and not counting those) a day, conversate.....state your interest....ask for date/number. Even an ugly guy thats slightly socially awkward is going to get a yes 1/10 times. Half of em are likely to proceed to a second date. That's 9 dates a month with 2-4 of them going to the second date.....if you get past the second date you probably have good chemistry....you will likely have two choices for a committed relationship at the end of the month a good percentage of the time.

If you wanna get more specific......and go for church girls only......I think the minimum odds are a lot higher. There's boatloads of single girls that go to Church that would love to be asked out.

I don't believe in "There's only one person out there for you" thing so my math doesn't even consider that.

I have no idea how to calculate odds for women because as men, we can control the number of females we come into contact with....We could ask out 20 a day if we wanted and get a guaranteed 2 dates a day on average for the least attractive of us if we are willing to put in the effort. Unless women are doing the approaching and asking out (Which most Christian girls would almost never do), it all depends on if someone approaches you or not.....being as social and meeting as many people in general as possible is the only way to increase your odds of getting approached.

 

[thimsrebma]

Is it just me or is this ridiculously hilarious? If you look at this seriously all people would lose hope of finding a mate. Thank the Lord that it doesn't work like this and it is all by His design that we will meet our God given mate.

 

[Relena7]

Not everyone rules out everyone from other states or countries. Especially now days. So if you include internet dating, that would make the odds even greater.

However I'm agreeing with DuchessAimee here and I think this formula is flawed and way too oversimplified. Finding a mate could be harder for some than others. There are some people who might be compatible with MANY more general people than others, due to personal maturity, life circumstance, disasters, etc. Some people can find a person they click with 10 times out of 20. Some will be 1 out of 100. And some are in an area of their lives where they only click with 1 out of 1000. You can't point to your math and tell me that the 1 out of 1000 types are just "being too picky" because math says so.
And you forget to take into account that the average human heart can only take so much rejection before they will want to back off and slow down on meeting people, so unless they are lucky and find that someone early, they may never bother to sift through all 1000 people necessary to find them because it takes a lot of energy each time putting yourself "out there" and being vulnerable and you can only take so much. There are too many assumptions going on here. I think if we were all animals (or robots), this would be more accurate.

 

[AAAPlus]

There are some problems with your reasoning here. If you stay in your same state, you meet people in that state. You don't need to use the percentage of people that live in your state or country in your calculation of chances. A lot of single people are open to marrying any Christian in the world.

If you hang around that small percentage of people who are Bible believing by going to churches and Christian activities, then your chances of meeting one of these people who happens to be single is not so miniscule. A better calculation would be X percentage of the Christian population in my state is single and in the age range I am looking for. I will encounter Y number of people in Z years (the time during which you wish to marry.) Use that to calculate your chances. Let's say 50% of people are unmarried, and 30% of them are in your age range that you could marry. If you find 10% of them attractive, what's that, like 15 people out of a church of 1000? In five years, if you visit different churches and events, you might meet 5,000 Christians, so that's 75 potential partners.

And there is the issue of God's sovereign hand as opposed to everything just being random chance. Also, notice that those 50% of people somehow managed to get married themselves.

I wanted to respond to this (three years late...whatevs).

The breakdown obviously has many factors that are variable. I tried to be generous with my numbers so that if anything, the chances I came up with were too high rather than too low. YMMV. Many things will impact your actual situation. If you rarely get out and interact with people, obviously your chances of meeting someone go way down. Outgoing people meet more people throughout their lives. Having a car increases your sphere of influence. Physical attractiveness plays a role as well. Someone living in a big city is going to meet a lot more people than someone living in a small town.

Anyway, it's just something to think about.

 

[AAAPlus]

Also I didn't touch on using the Internet for a reason. It's a variable like any other, but in my estimate it's too much of a variable. In my view, the amount of time spent on the Internet looking for a special someone could be better spent meeting people out in the world. It's much harder to actually get to know someone online, and long distance relationships have a much lower success rate. While it seems counterintuitive, I would argue that using the Internet to expand your geographical reach will lower your chances of success, but less so than someone who doesn't go out OR use the internet.

And maybe there are some people who just live out in the sticks and there isn't anyone around. In that case, what's stopping you from moving?

Food for thought.

 

[crosstweed]

That awkward moment when you remember this thread from your first CC account...



Edit: That awkward moment when you realize your post from you first CC account is on the same page as this post from your current one...

 

[wisebeardman]

gravediggers

 

[Lynx]

This brings up an ethical quagmire. What if the OP is the one who resurrects the zombie thread? Is it gravedigging or resuscitation?

 

[AsifinPassing]

So, I remembered this thread...and was looking at it/re-reading...and then was like, WOAH! Jules is back?! How?!

...then I saw the date and was like... 'Oh, okay.'

So, then, the immediate follow-up was... "I wonder who resurrected this thread?" Lol @ finding out it was the OP.

Call AAA for thread-side assistance. ^_~