A lesson for all from a political profession who has been a part of many (mostly successful) campaigns-
The raw numbers don't matter as much as the factors, immediate and prevailing, behind the numbers. We can know most of them, but some things are only known to the people running the race.
I think the immediate factors favor Trump and that those factors will overcome where Hillary has been largely dominant, the prevailing factors.
Could I be wrong? Absolutely. I'll be able to tell, quite ably, why I was wrong hahahaha.
The post-mortem analysis is always my favorite part. All the pieces come together and it's always educational.