Taiwan and PRC Tensions

[Desdichado]

If what you write is true (and I have no reason to doubt it as you seem well-informed), this would be a very effective deterrent to war altogether. China is probably flexing her muscles for the same reason most revolutionary regimes flex their muscles- to paper over internal problems and divisions by focusing on a foreign adversary.

All Taiwan needs is assistance with Satellite intelligence and also with the Navy guarding the West coast and to keep supply lines open to Taiwan. If the US does those three things Taiwan can do the rest. Also the Philippines, Japan, S. Korea and Australia should see this as being critical for their own survival. They can help with their navies, with soldiers, and with supplies. You don't have to be on the front lines to be very helpful.

Not only so but I suspect India would not want China to win that war anymore than Russia wanted us to get peace in Afghanistan.

 

[JohnDB]

If what you write is true (and I have no reason to doubt it as you seem well-informed), this would be a very effective deterrent to war altogether. China is probably flexing her muscles for the same reason most revolutionary regimes flex their muscles- to paper over internal problems and divisions by focusing on a foreign adversary.

Where I agree with a lot of what he says...
What he is missing discussing is that China, like Russia is an oligarchy type communist government.

Meaning that where they might seem to be unified there's a LOT of dissention between the various regions. Also the absolute silence of any real news/information about the outside world is also extremely fertile ground to sew more dissention between the oligarchs.
Most of these oligarchs are also usually very corrupt...they have just finished having a couple "disappeared" lately with bank accounts confiscated....rumors has it that they were only the tip of the iceberg of corruption but that they couple were in positions that actually could be chastised for their actions...the rest currently are untouchable due to all the fallout from properly dealing with them and there would be no more honest replacement for these people either.

Some of these oligarchs and military Generals are extremely hawkish...and currently they are occupied with the Indian border. India would have no compunction about starting an all out war if they felt they had backing of the entire world. (China has stolen some of their territory)

Hong Kong province wouldn't be all that amused if the PRC was attacked but if China continues to oppress them... probably wouldn't mind either...so long as they were left out of it.
Shanghai is of course the capital province. But there are severe divisions within. The smoke in the spring and fall from buckets of coal they burn because the central heat has been turned off clouds the street so bad they can't see across it. Everyone walks outside with masks on a normal basis... pandemic started nothing new for them.
Also the Christian persecution of late has been extreme...when and if they figure out that their Government is at war with America...it's not going to go well.

There are issues with all of the provinces from the prices for housing to their new "multiple child" policy.

Nationalism has degraded into provincial pride.

So yes, China is saber rattling...and it might actually accidentally or intentionally break out into actual warfare.

What we can do is to help India with vaccines and healthcare for everyone...which will also greatly curb variants for the pandemic. (Myanmar/Burma is, and will continue to be a lost cause)
Pakistan is susceptible to bribery as always.
And Russia has no love lost for China as well.

Japan, would love to raise an army/navy once again... Vietnam wants revenge....Aussies and New Zealand can be convinced...and the EU needs to cough up troops and money. (It's their investments too)

 

[ZNP]

In the end what matters is that Taiwan prays, humbles themselves before God, and gives themselves 100% to defend their country. Do that and they win. David will slay Goliath.

 

[TimothyGodIsLove]

The United States is expected to be very responsible over this matter, If they let Taiwan fall, the Senkaku Islands will be seized next, then the Phillipines and so on and so forth, history likes to repeat itself, almost every other nation once it became a hegemony, it went ahead to become an empire. China is now a regional hegemony that craves to be an empire, and it starts with their agenda to be reunified with Taiwan. To try and assert that China will stop after annexation of Taiwan is to be dead wrong, they will now turn their attention towards the Senkaku Islands, after that the Philippines, after that Australia. The credibility of the United States commitments to defend its allies is on the line here, if they choose to abandon the Taiwan Agreement then other allies(UK, Australia) will feel like they can't rely on commitments made by the US to help them in case they are attacked in the future. If they choose to defend Taiwan, then they risk the conflict escalating into an all out nuclear war.
The CCP is an immoral regime for the following reasons:
1. They have locked up Islamic Uyghurs in concentration camps just like Hitler did to Jews in WW2.
2. They have violated human rights in some provinces ie freedom of worship etc
3. They constantly brainwash the Chinese people through misinformation from the state run Chinese media.
4. Coercing Australia to change its internal rules through economic means.

The United States can form a pact of several countries not just AUKUS to help counter the Chinese, India included. They need to throw in anything that can pressure China to stop this madness like.

A) Trade Embargoes
China relies heavily on seas occupied by American military forces to carry out its trade, The Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean mostly, if American forces occupying these waters can blockage goods meant for or from China then that can cause unemployment to massive Chinese people which would then build pressure on the party(CCP) to end the war.

B) Targeting key strategic areas in Chinese infrastructure like Hydro-Electric Power Stations, Military bases and Nuclear Plants could really cripple their long term ability to hold on to the war.

C) Crippling any attempt by China to invade Taiwan from the air, land and seas. The United States is well equipped for all these scenarios of warfare and would really end bad for the Chinese military.

One final factor that really puts the Chinese at a disadvantage is their military has never experienced warfare on a real battlefield. This is going to be the first time and first times are like amateurs they underperform. The last time the PLA was engaged in a military conflict was in 1979 when China invaded Vietnam, didn't end too well for China. The Vietnamese were able to use the experience they got from fighting the Americans to oust China our from their country.
There is a very real picture of China losing and the CCP doesn't want the Chinese people to see that.

 

[JohnDB]

Another aspect of this is the embargoes...

America and indeed the whole world trades with the PRC as well as Taiwan.

Everything from peeled garlic to ingredients for Tamiflu comes from China. Silicon for semiconductors comes from China and all those rare earth elements needed for lithium ion batteries comes from China as well.

And until those things have a replacement source or alternative replacement...we really don't want to go to war with PRC.

Even your motorcycle helmets come from PRC.

Yes, you won't have any Twinkies at the local grocery store.

PRC lobs a missile from a jet at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM on the exchange) and then we lob one back at the big dam...and millions go without power...

It only gets worse from there...

It takes years to build a dam...just like it takes years to build a semiconductor facility...

Meanwhile Ford, GM, Toyota, Nissan and Daimler all sit idle because they can't build any cars. (Tesla really doesn't build cars despite the hype)

Sony and TCL have to all but shut down...no parts. Nvidia computers become really scarce...

Lithium Batteries become like gold.

And that's just the first wave as the PRC currency becomes worthless because they just lost their biggest customer...but nobody in PRC knows this because they are sitting around in the dark starving...

I hate war...
These people need to find away to get along.

 

[ZNP]

Another aspect of this is the embargoes...

America and indeed the whole world trades with the PRC as well as Taiwan.

Everything from peeled garlic to ingredients for Tamiflu comes from China. Silicon for semiconductors comes from China and all those rare earth elements needed for lithium ion batteries comes from China as well.

And until those things have a replacement source or alternative replacement...we really don't want to go to war with PRC.

Even your motorcycle helmets come from PRC.

Yes, you won't have any Twinkies at the local grocery store.

PRC lobs a missile from a jet at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM on the exchange) and then we lob one back at the big dam...and millions go without power...

It only gets worse from there...

It takes years to build a dam...just like it takes years to build a semiconductor facility...

Meanwhile Ford, GM, Toyota, Nissan and Daimler all sit idle because they can't build any cars. (Tesla really doesn't build cars despite the hype)

Sony and TCL have to all but shut down...no parts. Nvidia computers become really scarce...

Lithium Batteries become like gold.

And that's just the first wave as the PRC currency becomes worthless because they just lost their biggest customer...but nobody in PRC knows this because they are sitting around in the dark starving...

I hate war...
These people need to find away to get along.

Seriously? You would wimp out because of the junk we buy from China? 90% is non essential junk sold at Walmart.

It is an empty threat to say they would cut us off because if they do their entire economy collapses whereas we would either learn we don't need their junk or else we can simply delay the purchases we do need (cars, phones, tvs)

 

[TimothyGodIsLove]

Seriously? You would wimp out because of the junk we buy from China? 90% is non essential junk sold at Walmart.

It is an empty threat to say they would cut us off because if they do their entire economy collapses whereas we would either learn we don't need their junk or else we can simply delay the purchases we do need (cars, phones, tvs)

You have to research on this economic concept called "Mutually Assured Economic Destruction " that would result if America stopped trading with China.

 

[ZNP]

You have to research on this economic concept called "Mutually Assured Economic Destruction " that would result if America stopped trading with China.

If you go to war with a country you automatically cancel any debts you have with them. It would certainly cost us to go to war with China, my point is that in the US we have a little buffer between us and disaster, in China there is no buffer.

We would have tremendous disruptions to our economy, In China it would be cataclysmic. We would be able to rebuild, they would completely implode. China wouldn't last six months.

 

[TimothyGodIsLove]

If you go to war with a country you automatically cancel any debts you have with them. It would certainly cost us to go to war with China, my point is that in the US we have a little buffer between us and disaster, in China there is no buffer.

We would have tremendous disruptions to our economy, In China it would be cataclysmic. We would be able to rebuild, they would completely implode. China wouldn't last six months.

I agree, a lot of American companies have enfranchised to China especially the Computing Industry, we see a lot of refurbished junk especially Personal Computers being branded as Made In China, but when you take a look at the company of that PC, Its an American Company like HP, Dell etc. I believe millions of Chinese people employed by these companies might just have to kiss their gold mines a compassionate goodbye if Beijing declares war on Uncle Sam.

 

[JohnDB]

I agree, a lot of American companies have enfranchised to China especially the Computing Industry, we see a lot of refurbished junk especially Personal Computers being branded as Made In China, but when you take a look at the company of that PC, Its an American Company like HP, Dell etc. I believe millions of Chinese people employed by these companies might just have to kiss their gold mines a compassionate goodbye if Beijing declares war on Uncle Sam.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/top-trading-partner-of-every-u-s-state/

 

[TimothyGodIsLove]

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/top-trading-partner-of-every-u-s-state/

Very informative, it seems that China is not even on the list of the top seven countries America trades with. So that means China needs America but America doesn't need China, This is a very big blow to China because America is just going to use non-military means to coerce them to back down and live to be democratic another day.

 

[ZNP]

 

[ZNP]

I know there was a claim from someone in the CCP that missiles would bounce off the 3 Gorges dam. That is not how you would bring the dam down, what you would do is detonate a bomb underwater. I think the depth of the dam is about 100 m. Shockwaves are transmitted very well through water. Even if a bomb didn't burst the dam immediately it would damage the gates and destroy them, that in turn would cause cavitation and the dam will then collapse.

 

[TimothyGodIsLove]

I think Taiwan will humble themselves and pray like the good king Hezekiah and the Lord will fight for Taiwan and the CCP will be defeated like Senacharib from Assyria.

I would say the hardest and most difficult military assignment in world history would be to take Taiwan. They have had over 70 years to build up the defenses and they have done that knowing that China intended to take them back. They are an extremely well armed nation, it is a tropical island that is rugged and mountainous and filled with military defenses, a naval landing would incur incredible losses in these days of drones, missiles, and satellite surveillance. Mainland China doesn't have the transport ships to move 2 million men so they are thinking of using commercial boats, they would be sitting ducks for advanced weaponry.

Taiwan also has excellent allies in Japan (the most modern navy in the world), Australia and the US. That is some very serious firepower pointed back at China.

To make things worse for China they need imports from both the US and Australia to feed their people.

Finally, Taiwan has many agents in sleeper cells in China. In the event of war they will cause mayhem to China's infrastructure. Not only so but the US's "Bunker busters" can be used to punch holes in dams like the 3 Gorges dam which would wipe out the Yangtze river basin, home to 500 million people and China's industrial base. Destroying that dam alone would put an end to any illusion that China is a superpower.

One other thing, every single High School graduate has gone through military training for several years on that island. They can immediately have tens of millions of people doing essential jobs and services. Taiwan is Asia's version of Israel. The only "Christian" nation in Asia (the Philippines are Catholic, I don't consider that the same thing, but if you disagree I can certainly understand that).

Why would you consider Roman Catholicism not equal to Christianity?, it's a subset of the later. RCC is just a denomination within the Christian religion.

 

[ZNP]

Why would you consider Roman Catholicism not equal to Christianity?, it's a subset of the later. RCC is just a denomination within the Christian religion.

There are Christians who are catholics, however, you can grow up in the Catholic church without ever becoming a Christian, it has embraced blasphemy (saying that what the prophets said is not true) and as a result they are now in apostasy.

 

[Desdichado]

Same. And we made it to the brink here thanks to wave after wave of imprudence.

I hate war...
These people need to find away to get along.

 

[JohnDB]

Very informative, it seems that China is not even on the list of the top seven countries America trades with. So that means China needs America but America doesn't need China, This is a very big blow to China because America is just going to use non-military means to coerce them to back down and live to be democratic another day.

We do have a huge trade imbalance with them. They are extremely reluctant to buy anything from us but have been caught many times stealing intellectual property and technology.
I believe that Trump directed a BUNCH of them to get out of the country or else...
And the NIH funded research of the coronavirus in the Wuhan lab was headed by a Chinese national here at a university in Texas doing research for the University. Of course it was the extremely insufficient protocols in Wuhan that caused that outbreak.

Yeah...this factoid isn't exactly helping their case any either.

Just saying...

 

[TimothyGodIsLove]

We do have a huge trade imbalance with them. They are extremely reluctant to buy anything from us but have been caught many times stealing intellectual property and technology.
I believe that Trump directed a BUNCH of them to get out of the country or else...
And the NIH funded research of the coronavirus in the Wuhan lab was headed by a Chinese national here at a university in Texas doing research for the University. Of course it was the extremely insufficient protocols in Wuhan that caused that outbreak.

Yeah...this factoid isn't exactly helping their case any either.

Just saying...

China blocked foreign countries and organizations from investigating the lab, this act of secrecy makes some of us conclude that the virus might have been a biological weapon that was being engineered to be unleashed on America or the world in general. Other reasons that suggest the virus was a Chinese biological weapon are:
1. The researchers at the Wuhan institute of virology were trying to modify the genetic sequence of a corona virus they had discovered in bats to make it acquire "a gain of function" that would make it harmful to humans.
2. How much of a co-incidence is it when the viral outbreak occurred just when world military games were held in Beijing. The chinese government seize the opportunity to send a message to the world.
3. When you say no to outsiders who want to shed some light on what really happened there is because you don't want the truth to come out, which is you sponsored the engineering of a biological weapon and are afraid of the repercussions that may following the world had enough evidence to be convinced.
4. The close proximity of where the first case was reported and where the bio-research lab is raised questions.

America needs to counter biological weapons, I read from the news that the United States banned all kinds of biological weapons engineering research, America should understand that its enemies are doing the exact same thing, we shouldn't place our trust in nuclear weapons alone, we need to compete and make sure all kinds of threats have been neutralized.

 

[JohnDB]

China blocked foreign countries and organizations from investigating the lab, this act of secrecy makes some of us conclude that the virus might have been a biological weapon that was being engineered to be unleashed on America or the world in general. Other reasons that suggest the virus was a Chinese biological weapon are:
1. The researchers at the Wuhan institute of virology were trying to modify the genetic sequence of a corona virus they had discovered in bats to make it acquire "a gain of function" that would make it harmful to humans.
2. How much of a co-incidence is it when the viral outbreak occurred just when world military games were held in Beijing. The chinese government seize the opportunity to send a message to the world.
3. When you say no to outsiders who want to shed some light on what really happened there is because you don't want the truth to come out, which is you sponsored the engineering of a biological weapon and are afraid of the repercussions that may following the world had enough evidence to be convinced.
4. The close proximity of where the first case was reported and where the bio-research lab is raised questions.

America needs to counter biological weapons, I read from the news that the United States banned all kinds of biological weapons engineering research, America should understand that its enemies are doing the exact same thing, we shouldn't place our trust in nuclear weapons alone, we need to compete and make sure all kinds of threats have been neutralized.

The researchers in Texas (it might have been Arizona but I think Texas) were doing derivative research of a researcher here in TN...of course this was also the location of a major cell of technology espionage...it flew below the radar screens because SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks were over. Indeed the researcher here in Nashville was sweating getting new funding for research in Covid viral research. There wasn't much money for this research. But the Chinese Nationals being in viral research wasn't exactly uncommon either. But the whole thing just stinks. A comedy of errors and stupidity. "Gain of function" testing is common outside of bioweapons...it's about trying to get ahead of variants and which variants are the most likely candidates so you can make better vaccines. (Wife works in research)

No matter what...the whole thing stinks. And PRC is right in the center of it all. The researchers in Texas basically stole another person's work and derivative research just to get the research dollars to give PRC the firsthand opportunity to gain information. Then handed the lab work to a lab that bid the lowest price because "they didn't understand" the needed protocols for safe handling. It wasn't bioweapons as much as normal thievery and scummy behavior by them.

Now the same PRC that infected the whole world is saber rattling at Taiwan... because PRC needs Taiwanese cash to fix their junk bond crisis from poor real estate speculation.

Uhhhh....NO.

 

[JohnDB]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-flies-record-52-planes-ruled-taiwan-80393458

Its not getting any better...