This may be your last chance
The reason to talk about his is so you can prepare. It is crucial to know in detail what is going on so you can prepare properly.
So let's go through this so everyone understands this isn't simply crying wolf.
If you liken our economy to an airplane we have two engines. House sales and Car sales. Think of how many jobs are involved in building houses with all the various things that are in that house from carpet to appliances, furniture, electrical, plumbing, concrete, etc. Not only so but everyone buys a house with a mortgage so banks and insurance companies also get a piece of the pie. Then on top of that you have utilities and other services you pay for.
The same is true of car sales.
Then all the other jobs, teachers, police, restaurants, shopping malls, are all servicing the people working in these industries.
Now both of these industries work on credit. Most if not all people who buy a new car do so on credit and the same is true of a house.
Suppose I want to buy a $500,000 house with $100,000 down payment and have a mortgage of 400,000. If you increase the interest rate by 3% which is what we have seen in the last few months, then your monthly house payment goes up by about $740. So what happens, a house you could have afforded you now can't afford. You can buy a cheaper house or the person selling the house has to drop their price dramatically. You would have to drop the asking price by $120,000 for the monthly payment to be the same. So imagine you bought your house for $400,000 you thought it had risen in value to $500,000 over the last five years, and you have some equity as a result of making your payments. After selling the house you were hoping to walk away with $200,000 that you could put into your next house. Now instead you get $80,000. This will be devastating to the economy.
Many people use home equity loans to finance purchases. That will end. You don't have to sell the house to think you have 200k in the piggy bank.
This is what we are seeing, both engines to this plane have blown up. Projected house sales have plummeted with everything that goes along with that. Usually we would see the job losses as well but since Covid was sending relief funds for the last year or so that has all been delayed.
Now consider this, it doesn't matter what the reason is that someone doesn't buy a house, if you don't buy a house people lose their jobs. It could be that the person selling can no longer afford to sell, it could be that no one is moving to better paying jobs, it could be that someone can't afford to buy the house, or it could be that the builder can't finish the house because they are waiting on some crucial part like the windows. The same is true with cars. Our economy is based on transactions, if the transactions stop the economy crashes, it doesn't matter what the reason is. Fed Ex recently warned that the transactions have crashed. Interest rates have gone up 3% telling us that the transactions will crash.
So what do you do? Generally if you see the stock market going down you buy bonds. But you can't do that here because interest rates are rising and bonds are crashing. But no problems, if the US is having trouble invest in Europe. There situation is worse than ours. OK, if Europe is in trouble too then invest in China. Can't do that their real estate bubble has popped and they have a run on the banks. They are ahead of the curve on the collapsing economies.
So then in this situation you raise your tray table, return your seat to its upright position, securely fasten your seatbelt and put your head between your knees. Now that you are in this position you pray.