ChatGPT is an Open Source AI
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They are sprinting full speed to get to AGI
Facebook/Meta stockpiled MASSIVE amounts of NVIDIA GPUs. The goal is AGI...
The biggest build out project in human history. The biggest breakthrough is having these AI models teach themselves.
In other words the model will do a task, then evaluate how well it did the task, critique the performance, find ways it could have performed it better, quicker, safer, more accurately, etc. Then figure out how to adjust the programming so that in the future it does better. Now you have just made model two and once again it tests itself on a number of tasks and then goes through this self reflection, critiquing method again. The computer is able to do this itself, and in so doing leave the human behind. Then you look at the money they are spending on computing power because the faster they do this the faster these models improve.
For example, consider a lawyer. It runs through an entire trial and evaluates how it performed. Then it figures out how it could have edited what it said to be clearer, more concise, more persuasive, more understandable. It evaluates the 12 hypothetical jurors, their backgrounds and how to more effectively and persuasively communicate with them. Perhaps that means quoting day time TV, or using sports analogies, etc. Then it goest through the trial a second time and it performs better. Now if it can do this entire process in 24 hours and after seven days go through 7 iterations. A legal AI that performs adequately today will perform brilliantly a month from today and other worldly in two months.
Facebook/Meta stockpiled MASSIVE amounts of NVIDIA GPUs. The goal is AGI...
The biggest build out project in human history. The biggest breakthrough is having these AI models teach themselves.
In other words the model will do a task, then evaluate how well it did the task, critique the performance, find ways it could have performed it better, quicker, safer, more accurately, etc. Then figure out how to adjust the programming so that in the future it does better. Now you have just made model two and once again it tests itself on a number of tasks and then goes through this self reflection, critiquing method again. The computer is able to do this itself, and in so doing leave the human behind. Then you look at the money they are spending on computing power because the faster they do this the faster these models improve.
For example, consider a lawyer. It runs through an entire trial and evaluates how it performed. Then it figures out how it could have edited what it said to be clearer, more concise, more persuasive, more understandable. It evaluates the 12 hypothetical jurors, their backgrounds and how to more effectively and persuasively communicate with them. Perhaps that means quoting day time TV, or using sports analogies, etc. Then it goest through the trial a second time and it performs better. Now if it can do this entire process in 24 hours and after seven days go through 7 iterations. A legal AI that performs adequately today will perform brilliantly a month from today and other worldly in two months.
When you hire someone for a fortune 500 company you have to assume they will be with you for the next five years. So you have to calculate the ROI for that employee for the next five years. Assume they make 100k per year (they could start lower and end higher). What are you getting for that 500k. There are other expenses as well to the company. Office space, benefits, and potential liability. There is also the cost to hire and train them. So all in all, it might be closer to a million dollars. So imagine you can get AI for 100k over the same time frame (maybe the AI costs $2 million but you are replacing 20 people, so 100k per employee replaced). It is not performing as well as that hire might perform on year 1, but you are anticipating it will perform as well in year 2, and better in years 3, 4 and 5. Also, this AI works 24/7 whereas that employee doesn't. So even though it may not be performing as well in year 1 it makes up for it by working four times harder. I think it is very difficult for a Fortune 500 company to hire anyone once they get to this point.
Also Jack Welch's philosophy at GE was to fire 10% of the workforce each year. Get rid of the fat. The concept is simple, you do a annual review of all your employees, some perform very well, some don't. Some are at the bottom 10%. Even though your top employees may be performing better than AI, are your bottom 10%?
I expect we will see both of these things happen this year. A hiring freeze will eliminate about 20% of jobs (on average fortune 500 employees stay at the company for five years) and firing the bottom 10% brings the total to 30%, and if you aren't going to be hiring you don't need half of your HR department, so they will get the axe first.
However, that is for a white collar, fortune 500 job. At a fast food restaurant the annual turnover is 75%! Think how much time is spent trying to hire and train people. Replacing your cashier with a machine, or a cook with robot would be a tremendous savings to the boss. Also you don't have to worry about shrinkage, drugs, or viral videos, or liability. I suspect that having a machine with a good ROI will be immediately embraced by all Fast Food chain owners.
Also Jack Welch's philosophy at GE was to fire 10% of the workforce each year. Get rid of the fat. The concept is simple, you do a annual review of all your employees, some perform very well, some don't. Some are at the bottom 10%. Even though your top employees may be performing better than AI, are your bottom 10%?
I expect we will see both of these things happen this year. A hiring freeze will eliminate about 20% of jobs (on average fortune 500 employees stay at the company for five years) and firing the bottom 10% brings the total to 30%, and if you aren't going to be hiring you don't need half of your HR department, so they will get the axe first.
However, that is for a white collar, fortune 500 job. At a fast food restaurant the annual turnover is 75%! Think how much time is spent trying to hire and train people. Replacing your cashier with a machine, or a cook with robot would be a tremendous savings to the boss. Also you don't have to worry about shrinkage, drugs, or viral videos, or liability. I suspect that having a machine with a good ROI will be immediately embraced by all Fast Food chain owners.
Great analysis, instead of laying off workers we can imagine a big firm using AI to grow. Imagine some great law firm using AI to double or triple the cases they take, handling them faster, cheaper and better. You won't see this firm lay anyone off, instead you will see many other firms go out of business.
For example, there are a lot of lawyers out there that work out of their house, or as a "private practice". The big firms don't want their cases because too small and the fee is not worth it. But if they had AI doing all the work they might want to vacuum up all this business.
For example, there are a lot of lawyers out there that work out of their house, or as a "private practice". The big firms don't want their cases because too small and the fee is not worth it. But if they had AI doing all the work they might want to vacuum up all this business.
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He makes a great point about 38 minutes in, that is that they don't sell the robots, they rent them. So I get a robot that does the work of 3 1/2 people for half the price I would pay to hire those people. I don't have to worry about warranties or service issues, or upgrades or any of that. I have a McDonald's, to hire 3 1/2 full time workers I pay $10,000 a month including benefits and other expenses, but I get a robot for $5,000 a month. It is never late to work, doesn't do drugs, doesn't steal, doesn't make viral videos that ruin my business and open me up to liability. Suppose I have a few restaurants, altogether over 100 employees and spend half my time hiring new employees because turnover is about 75% a year. So every two robots I rent makes me 10k extra per month, and saves me about 20 hours of my time in hiring.
The robots will be like copy machines where they send the tech guy out to service every so often.
He makes a great point about 38 minutes in, that is that they don't sell the robots, they rent them. So I get a robot that does the work of 3 1/2 people for half the price I would pay to hire those people. I don't have to worry about warranties or service issues, or upgrades or any of that. I have a McDonald's, to hire 3 1/2 full time workers I pay $10,000 a month including benefits and other expenses, but I get a robot for $5,000 a month. It is never late to work, doesn't do drugs, doesn't steal, doesn't make viral videos that ruin my business and open me up to liability. Suppose I have a few restaurants, altogether over 100 employees and spend half my time hiring new employees because turnover is about 75% a year. So every two robots I rent makes me 10k extra per month, and saves me about 20 hours of my time in hiring.
The robots will be like copy machines where they send the tech guy out to service every so often.
Yeah. We are definitely at an inflection point in human history.
The humanoid robot will be a big factor in their ability to usher in a UBI linked to a digital identity, and social credit score. As well as the solidified belief by the ungodly elite that killing 95% of us useless eaters won’t impact their factories to make them things.
The humanoid robot will be a big factor in their ability to usher in a UBI linked to a digital identity, and social credit score. As well as the solidified belief by the ungodly elite that killing 95% of us useless eaters won’t impact their factories to make them things.
I doubt a "robot mechanic" will actually be fixing robots. Either they will do a download of the latest software or they will replace a worn out part with a new one.
So on one hand you are right that if they are renting these things someone will be delivering them, setting them up and servicing them. However, it probably would not require more than a high school diploma and with 40% unemployment you are probably happy to work at minimum wage.
So on one hand you are right that if they are renting these things someone will be delivering them, setting them up and servicing them. However, it probably would not require more than a high school diploma and with 40% unemployment you are probably happy to work at minimum wage.
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I don't think they use the word "killing" as it has a negative connotation. Instead I think they prefer the term "repurpose" as in being repurposed to fish food.
Also, "useless eater" is a derogatory term, in an age of soylent green there is no reason to refer to people as useless eaters anymore than you would refer to a pig or chicken as a useless eater.
These terms are hurtful and cause unnecessary anxiety in people, let's use more compassionate terms like "repurpose" and "the fuel that runs the machine" for people.
Also, "useless eater" is a derogatory term, in an age of soylent green there is no reason to refer to people as useless eaters anymore than you would refer to a pig or chicken as a useless eater.
These terms are hurtful and cause unnecessary anxiety in people, let's use more compassionate terms like "repurpose" and "the fuel that runs the machine" for people.
13 And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.
We are watching this "Beast" rise up out of the nations right now.
2 And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.
3 And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.
4 And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?
5 And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.
I assume that "to continue" means after one of the heads is wounded and the deadly wound healed and after the dragon gives power unto the beast and after they make an army of robots, drones and people connected to the AI via chip. But look, this Beast system only continues for 42 months? What happens 3 1/2 years into the tribulation that the whole AI system collapses? Maybe it is a power crisis, they can't keep the whole computer system working?
The Lord knows what the achilles heel is of this whole beast system and it will be catastrophic to the one world system when it collapses. Imagine you have replaced all your workers only for the AI system to crash and burn.
We are watching this "Beast" rise up out of the nations right now.
2 And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.
3 And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.
4 And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?
5 And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.
I assume that "to continue" means after one of the heads is wounded and the deadly wound healed and after the dragon gives power unto the beast and after they make an army of robots, drones and people connected to the AI via chip. But look, this Beast system only continues for 42 months? What happens 3 1/2 years into the tribulation that the whole AI system collapses? Maybe it is a power crisis, they can't keep the whole computer system working?
The Lord knows what the achilles heel is of this whole beast system and it will be catastrophic to the one world system when it collapses. Imagine you have replaced all your workers only for the AI system to crash and burn.
The printing press created whole new industries, why won't AI and robots do the same?
Prior to the printing press a Bible costs the equivalent of approximately $40,000 at today's minimum wage, but why would someone who is doing very precise work, skilled work, and requiring a certain amount of education work at minimum wage?
So let's say it cost $50,000 before a printing press and $5 after. Before the printing press very, very few could afford a Bible, now everyone can.
Because books were so expensive there wasn't a publishing industry as it is today. Today we have about 4 million book titles published each year (most are self published).
But it also made schools and education much cheaper which in turn led to many more industries as a result.
However, AI is fundamentally different. When the printing press came out there were millions of people on this earth that would have wanted a Bible while less than 1% of them could actually afford one. With AI the world's markets are already saturated, you aren't going to be tapping into a market that is 100x bigger than what we have today.
Also, when the printing press came out it could not be autonomous. Yes, it was about ten times faster than copying the bible by hand, but people were used to hand drawn pictures and many other things so there was a slow transition. It took about 200 years before there was a public school in the US. It took about another hundred years before Prussia and Austria had public schools.
Without people being able to read you weren't eliminating many "scribe" jobs, and since bibles now cost about a tenth of what they were before you might be selling enough of them to keep most scribes employed with a printer. The transition to AI, robots and drones began in earnest after 9/11. For 22 years it was behind the scenes. They weren't really laying off people, simply changing their job description and cutting back on new hires, and using the robots for growth. But that has dramatically changed for China in 2023. College grads can't get jobs, businesses shut down, cities are ghost towns. At the end of 2023 and start of 2024 we began to see large scale layoffs. This will be an accelerating trend for all of 2024. It is estimated in one year we will have AGI and so 2025 will be exceptionally bleak for the job market. Unlike in previous technological and industrial advances, the easiest jobs to replace will be white collar. The hold up with blue collar jobs is not the AI, that part will be easy, nor is it the training, that part also they have already solved. Nor is it creating a robot that can do everything a human can do, they have already solved that as well. The hold up will be in manufacturing, distributing and installing them. That will be a massive undertaking. But you can be sure before 2024 is over they will have begun that process.
Now you have another problem, suppose I am the bank, I loaned money out for a mortgage and a car payment and a new business loan. I realize over the next 12 months 40% of the people I have loaned money to and 40% of the credit card holders are going to be unemployed (I don't mean that will happen in 12 months, simply that the banks will be aware that it is in the process of happening). What are they going to do? They will call in those loans as fast and as quick as they legally can.
What I can see happening right now, they saw would happen back in 2001. They have been preparing for the last 22 years. Now they talk about UBI, but I haven't seen any real moves to make that a reality. Instead what they have done is vaccine mandates for all fortune 500 workers and all students, and so, although we are not seeing massive layoffs we are seeing massive early deaths among fortune 500 workers while the companies themselves seem to chug along without the slightest problem. You can believe that the plan is to have 200 pot smoking people binge watching TV at home while collecting UBI, or you can look a little closer at this vaccine mandate and #DiedSuddenly phenomenon and then consider that they are telling you Disease X is about to hit and it is 100% deadly.
Prior to the printing press a Bible costs the equivalent of approximately $40,000 at today's minimum wage, but why would someone who is doing very precise work, skilled work, and requiring a certain amount of education work at minimum wage?
So let's say it cost $50,000 before a printing press and $5 after. Before the printing press very, very few could afford a Bible, now everyone can.
Because books were so expensive there wasn't a publishing industry as it is today. Today we have about 4 million book titles published each year (most are self published).
But it also made schools and education much cheaper which in turn led to many more industries as a result.
However, AI is fundamentally different. When the printing press came out there were millions of people on this earth that would have wanted a Bible while less than 1% of them could actually afford one. With AI the world's markets are already saturated, you aren't going to be tapping into a market that is 100x bigger than what we have today.
Also, when the printing press came out it could not be autonomous. Yes, it was about ten times faster than copying the bible by hand, but people were used to hand drawn pictures and many other things so there was a slow transition. It took about 200 years before there was a public school in the US. It took about another hundred years before Prussia and Austria had public schools.
Without people being able to read you weren't eliminating many "scribe" jobs, and since bibles now cost about a tenth of what they were before you might be selling enough of them to keep most scribes employed with a printer. The transition to AI, robots and drones began in earnest after 9/11. For 22 years it was behind the scenes. They weren't really laying off people, simply changing their job description and cutting back on new hires, and using the robots for growth. But that has dramatically changed for China in 2023. College grads can't get jobs, businesses shut down, cities are ghost towns. At the end of 2023 and start of 2024 we began to see large scale layoffs. This will be an accelerating trend for all of 2024. It is estimated in one year we will have AGI and so 2025 will be exceptionally bleak for the job market. Unlike in previous technological and industrial advances, the easiest jobs to replace will be white collar. The hold up with blue collar jobs is not the AI, that part will be easy, nor is it the training, that part also they have already solved. Nor is it creating a robot that can do everything a human can do, they have already solved that as well. The hold up will be in manufacturing, distributing and installing them. That will be a massive undertaking. But you can be sure before 2024 is over they will have begun that process.
Now you have another problem, suppose I am the bank, I loaned money out for a mortgage and a car payment and a new business loan. I realize over the next 12 months 40% of the people I have loaned money to and 40% of the credit card holders are going to be unemployed (I don't mean that will happen in 12 months, simply that the banks will be aware that it is in the process of happening). What are they going to do? They will call in those loans as fast and as quick as they legally can.
What I can see happening right now, they saw would happen back in 2001. They have been preparing for the last 22 years. Now they talk about UBI, but I haven't seen any real moves to make that a reality. Instead what they have done is vaccine mandates for all fortune 500 workers and all students, and so, although we are not seeing massive layoffs we are seeing massive early deaths among fortune 500 workers while the companies themselves seem to chug along without the slightest problem. You can believe that the plan is to have 200 pot smoking people binge watching TV at home while collecting UBI, or you can look a little closer at this vaccine mandate and #DiedSuddenly phenomenon and then consider that they are telling you Disease X is about to hit and it is 100% deadly.
Psalm 35:4 Let them be confounded and put to shame that seek after my soul: let them be turned back and brought to confusion that devise my hurt.
5 Let them be as chaff before the wind: and let the angel of the Lord chase them.
6 Let their way be dark and slippery: and let the angel of the Lord persecute them.
7 For without cause have they hid for me their net in a pit, which without cause they have digged for my soul.
8 Let destruction come upon him at unawares; and let his net that he hath hid catch himself: into that very destruction let him fall.
5 Let them be as chaff before the wind: and let the angel of the Lord chase them.
6 Let their way be dark and slippery: and let the angel of the Lord persecute them.
7 For without cause have they hid for me their net in a pit, which without cause they have digged for my soul.
8 Let destruction come upon him at unawares; and let his net that he hath hid catch himself: into that very destruction let him fall.
There is a flaw in his analysis. He assumes that Tesla will have a monopoly on making robots. That is foolish. Why wouldn't Germany and Russia and China and Japan and Taiwan make their own competitive robots? He is pricing the robot on the current economy, but that also is foolish. If everyone saves money using bots and every business can use them, then surely the manufacturing costs and cost of their suppliers should go down and the cost to manufacture the bots should go down. If Tesla prices them much higher than what they cost to manufacture then you open the door for competition and then the price will come down. This whole tax the bots and UBI is a pipe dream.
As bots take people's jobs the demand for goods will shrink. As demand shrinks the need to replace people with bots will grow. So you begin a negative feedback loop. The worst that unemployment got during the great depression was 25%. Once we hit that number there is no going back, it will be a negative feedback loop, the bigger the depression the faster they will switch to bots.
South Africa is at 31% unemployment. Palestine is at 24%. Botswana is at 25%, Djibouti at 28%, and Angola is almost 30%. When the situation is this bleak people become mercenaries.
As bots take people's jobs the demand for goods will shrink. As demand shrinks the need to replace people with bots will grow. So you begin a negative feedback loop. The worst that unemployment got during the great depression was 25%. Once we hit that number there is no going back, it will be a negative feedback loop, the bigger the depression the faster they will switch to bots.
South Africa is at 31% unemployment. Palestine is at 24%. Botswana is at 25%, Djibouti at 28%, and Angola is almost 30%. When the situation is this bleak people become mercenaries.
For a guy who is really good with numbers he must think we are idiots. He says that if 100 million tesla bots are deployed, which by his own math replaces 350 million people, that he would have as much as $6 trillion as a fund to help the unemployed. The $6 trillion is the highest price of his estimated range. That works out to $17,000 per unemployed person per year. That is the most generous estimate and assumes close to 0 for administrative costs for this fund handling $6 trillion a year.
So good news to that plumber who is currently making $120k a year with his own contractor business, you will no longer work, you will sit at home all day and get 17k from the government dole. Same to you, computer programmer who used to work in Silicon valley, and also to you, lawyer from the White shoe law firms, and to the doctors, CPAs and others now sitting at home and binge watching TV.
How long before someone decides $6 trillion is a lot of money to be giving to people to sit on their couch and watch TV?
So good news to that plumber who is currently making $120k a year with his own contractor business, you will no longer work, you will sit at home all day and get 17k from the government dole. Same to you, computer programmer who used to work in Silicon valley, and also to you, lawyer from the White shoe law firms, and to the doctors, CPAs and others now sitting at home and binge watching TV.
How long before someone decides $6 trillion is a lot of money to be giving to people to sit on their couch and watch TV?
Consider something else, the Federal government employs 23 million people. If we assume that a third of the 6.5 trillion the Federal government spends is payroll, then as tax revenue decreases because people are losing their jobs and businesses are seeing decline in demand for goods, the government will have tremendous pressure to cut costs, the easiest way would be with bots and AI.
New Study Reveals 60% OF Jobs* To Be Impacted By AI (IMF Report)
*In the Developed world. It is very likely that 100% of jobs in the developing world and 3rd world will be affected.
But they are being very specific in talking about AI. They aren't talking about 3d printers, machine learning or even robots! The only reason to be this disingenuous is because they know how horrific this will be.
Right now the developed world represents 17% of the world's population! So translation, when they say 60% of the jobs what they mean is 93% of the world's population!
*In the Developed world. It is very likely that 100% of jobs in the developing world and 3rd world will be affected.
But they are being very specific in talking about AI. They aren't talking about 3d printers, machine learning or even robots! The only reason to be this disingenuous is because they know how horrific this will be.
Right now the developed world represents 17% of the world's population! So translation, when they say 60% of the jobs what they mean is 93% of the world's population!