While I agree, he mentions the doctrine of election in that context, he tells us his purpose for writing chapter 9 in the first five verses. Romans 9:1-5
Paul signals the entire debate of Romans 9 in his opening lines by insisting that “the adoption as sons” belongs to his kinsmen according to the flesh. That phrase is not incidental; it is Paul deliberately naming the very category his opponents think invalidates his gospel. If God promised covenant blessings to Israel as a nation, then Israel’s unbelief seems to call God’s faithfulness into question. Paul meets that objection head‑on by emphasizing “flesh” at the outset, as if to say: Yes, I know exactly what God promised to ethnic Israel — and that is the very promise I am about to defend. His argument does not dodge the national, flesh‑and‑blood dimension of Israel’s calling; it starts by affirming it.
Remember, God divorced the earthly nation of Israel, so the possibility of it having a special relationship with Him ended. That divorce is the predicate for all of God's future dealings with the earthly nation of Israel and with spiritual Israel.
The purpose of Romans 9 is not found in its first five verses. The Chapter's verses are all integrated, each necessary to explain the
election doctrine. For example, in Rom 9:6-7, we are explicitly told the Israel God has in view is not the nation of Israel because not all Israel (the earthly) is Israel(the spiritual). A different Israel, spiritual Israel is the Israel of God- those symbolized by the seed of Isaac - otherwise, they would have to include all of Abraham's dependents, not just Isaac - and that distinction was made for a reason.
[Rom 9:6-7 KJV]
6 Not as though the word of God hath taken none effect. For they [are]
not all Israel, which are of Israel:
7 Neither, because they are the seed of Abraham, [are they] all children: but,
In Isaac shall thy seed be called.
For example, look at vs 9:25- 26 of Rom 9. Certainly, God is not referring to the nation of Israel as His beloved. God only has
one beloved, and that alone has become the true church, not the nation of Israel.
[Rom 9:25-26 KJV] 25 As he saith also in Osee,
I will call them my people, which were not my people; and her beloved, which was not beloved.
26 And it shall come to pass, [that] in the place where it was said
unto them, Ye [are] not my people; there shall they be called the children of the living God.
Granted, those of the Jewish remnant are saved by grace, but the subject matter in Romans 9 is God's promise to Israel. Everything you said about the basis of the election is true, and I agree.
I am glad that you quoted Romans 11, where Paul makes the point very clear. The early verses of chapter 11 make the point about a remnant group of Jewish people who are among the elect according to God's grace.
Paul ends Romans 11 by insisting that Israel’s present unbelief is neither total nor final. The “partial hardening” he describes is a temporary, divinely‑governed stage in redemptive history, not the cancellation of God’s covenant. This is why Paul can speak with such confidence that “all Israel will be saved”: he is not predicting the salvation of every individual Jew across time, but the future moment when God removes the hardness from the nation and brings about the very promise Jeremiah articulated — each man and his brother knowing the Lord. In Paul’s logic, the national restoration promised in the prophets remains a live, future hope, and the current hardening is the mechanism by which God is preparing the fullness of Gentile inclusion. Once that fullness arrives, God will act again toward Israel in mercy, fulfilling the covenantal promise on a corporate scale.
God divorced the nation of Israel and went so far as to explicitly state that those of the nation of Israel are no longer His people.
Therefore, it would be impossible for the nation of Israel as a nation, nor its people as its people, to be in view in Rom 9.
Remember, there are TWO Israels in view in Scripture, not one, so we need to keep straight which one is being referred to at any point in time.
[Rom 9:25-26 KJV] 25 As he saith also in Osee,
I will call them my people, which were not my people; and her beloved, which was not beloved.
26 And it shall come to pass, [that] in the place where it was said
unto them, Ye [are] not my people; there shall they be called the children of the living God.
The "all Israel" of Rom 11 to be saved is spiritual Israel, not earthly Israel. Do you believe that all of earthly Israel will be saved? Look at the "from Jacob" in v26. It doesn't say "from Jacob AND Esau" for a reason yet both were decedents of Abraham - because by "Jacob" is meant that it is only the elect.
[Rom 11:26 KJV] 26 And so
all Israel shall be saved: as it is written, There shall come out of Sion the Deliverer, and shall turn away ungodliness
from Jacob: