Bump...Boom...
M.A. Rothman
𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐌𝐏 𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐄𝐒 𝐆𝟕 𝐖𝐈𝐓𝐇 𝐀 𝐁𝐎𝐌𝐁𝐒𝐇𝐄𝐋𝐋 — 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐋𝐀𝐔𝐆𝐇𝐄𝐃 𝐀𝐓 𝐎𝐁𝐀𝐌𝐀 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐇𝐈𝐒 $𝟏.𝟕 𝐁𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐁𝐄
Trump saved his most memorable line for the very end of his G7 press conference in Evian.
He turned to what the Iranians privately thought of the Obama administration — the $1.7 billion in cash and wire transfers, the JCPOA, the eased sanctions, the unfrozen assets, the whole framework of accommodation. And he quoted their reaction:
“𝘓𝘪𝘬𝘦, 𝘰𝘩 𝘮𝘺 𝘎𝘰𝘥, 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘺 𝘩𝘦’𝘴 𝘨𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘴. 𝘏𝘦 𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘳𝘪𝘣𝘦 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘺 𝘰𝘶𝘵. 𝘐 𝘥𝘪𝘥𝘯’𝘵 𝘥𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵. 𝘕𝘰𝘣𝘰𝘥𝘺 𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵. $1.7 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘩𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘴. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘳𝘪𝘣𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘸𝘢𝘺 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘵. 𝘈𝘯𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘢𝘯𝘴 𝘥𝘪𝘥? 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘭𝘢𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘵 𝘖𝘣𝘢𝘮𝘢 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘴𝘢𝘪𝘥 𝘩𝘦’𝘴 𝘢 𝘴𝘵𝘶𝘱𝘪𝘥 𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩.”
The $1.7 billion is documented fact. In January 2016, the Obama administration transferred $𝟒𝟎𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐨 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧, timed to the release of American hostages. Obama insisted it was a debt settlement from a 1970s arms deal, not a ransom. Critics noted the plane full of cash arrived the same day the hostages did. Total payments under the settlement: $1.7 billion.
The Iranians took the money and the contempt came for free. A regime that laughs at the man who just wired them $1.7 billion isn’t a regime being brought to the table through diplomacy. It’s a regime that concluded it could take the money and the mockery simultaneously. Obama’s approach bought Iran time, sanctions relief, and apparently 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬.
Trump’s approach was different. He pulled out of the JCPOA, reimposed maximum-pressure sanctions, launched strikes that took down Iran’s military infrastructure, and arrived at Evian with a deal that required Iran to give up nuclear development as a condition, not as an eventual aspiration. The Iranians aren’t laughing this time. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩’𝐬 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐬.
𝐎𝐛𝐚𝐦𝐚 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐚 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧-𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞. 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐠𝐨𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦 𝐟𝐞𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨.
View attachment 290601
M.A. Rothman
𝐊𝐄𝐍𝐍𝐄𝐃𝐘: 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐋𝐎𝐎𝐊𝐒 𝐋𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐌𝐀𝐃 𝐌𝐀𝐗 𝟒 𝐑𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓 𝐍𝐎𝐖 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐖𝐎𝐑𝐋𝐃 𝐈𝐒 𝐒𝐀𝐅𝐄𝐑 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐈𝐓Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana just delivered the most quotable Iran assessment in Washington right now — and it has the advantage of being provably true.
“𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘢 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘢𝘨𝘰. 𝘞𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘰𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘱 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮. 𝘞𝘦’𝘷𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘺𝘦𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘯𝘶𝘤𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘭, 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘸𝘢𝘺, 𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘩. 𝘞𝘦’𝘷𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘺𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘥𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴. 𝘐𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦 20 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳. 𝘐 𝘥𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺’𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘺. 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮. 𝘞𝘦’𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵. 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢 𝘸𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘨𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮.”
On the deal itself, Kennedy simultaneously makes the mission-accomplished argument 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐚 𝐛𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐤 𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐜𝐤 𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐭𝐡:
“𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘻𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘶𝘯 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯, 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘭𝘪𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘬. 𝘉𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺, 𝘸𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘸𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘵 60 𝘵𝘰 90 𝘥𝘢𝘺𝘴. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘥𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦, 𝘸𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘷𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘴𝘰 𝘣𝘢𝘥𝘭𝘺. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘯𝘰 𝘢𝘪𝘳 𝘥𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘦𝘴. 𝘞𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘧𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘸𝘦 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘵𝘰. 𝘐𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘯𝘶𝘤𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘮 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯, 𝘸𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘺, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘣𝘰𝘮𝘣 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘱 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯.”
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝. Iran was set back two decades in a matter of months. If they cheat, they get set back two more. Kennedy’s bottom line:
“𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘴 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘔𝘢𝘥 𝘔𝘢𝘹 4. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘵 𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘭𝘥 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘵 𝘴𝘢𝘧𝘦𝘳.”
That is the argument for why the Trump strikes worked — regardless of what happens in the next 60 days of negotiations. Even a failed deal leaves Iran in Mad Max territory for a generation. 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭, 𝐊𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐝𝐲 𝐬𝐚𝐲𝐬, 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐞.













