Reasonable criticisms.
Oversimplified causation. Perhaps, but it is based on the best available data. There are both national and include Major organizations that generate data about American religion include the Pew Research Center, the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA), and PRRI (Public Religion Research Institute). These groups track shifting demographics, beliefs, and congregational statistics across the United States. These surveys do attempt to capture causation. They then summarize the aggregation of those responses, so I am more comfortable with my sources for causation.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/
I will agree that those polling organizations, although flawed to varying degrees, do give to us indications of potential trends.
My concern remains focused on trends. Median in-person worship attendance across standard congregations dropped by more than half from 2000 to 2025, falling from a national median of 137 down to a low of 45.
From my experiences, much of the institutional model has brought that upon themselves. As a mitigation, there are people like me out there planting home fellowships, as I've been doing for more than 30 years now, across America.
Mainline Protestant traditions (such as United Methodist, ELCA Lutheran, and Presbyterian USA) experienced severe contraction, dropping roughly 20% over just the final five years of this period alone, and over 40% in some denominations since 2000.
And for good reason too. The oil-n-water mix of liberal theology, and the deadness it contributes to the scriptures, it's no surprise at all that their numbers have shrunk while movements like the "seeker sensitive" model has had its hay day that is now somewhat in decline as well. The failure to deal with sin and provide Bible-based guidance and life-relatable teaching, that system has brought upon its own head what it deserves.
Sweeping generalizations - I am not sure how one can look at Christianity writ large both in its myriad and ever changing current forms and its connections to ancient history without a fair amount of generalizations.
Generally speaking, the institutional model has encouraged the lone star Christian model I see more of out there. Most of whom I encounter who want someone to help them start and maintain healthy home fellowships, they arise from having spent years without being a part of any gathering model because of the burnout from being a mere audience member for so much of their lives, always wanting something more meaningful and relevant to become a part. There are more like me out there than most realize, but we work underground mostly, not flashing credentials and titles as is the custom of historic churchianity and the parachurch organizations.
You will have to help me with what you are describing as "false dilemma framing."
Forgive me for going strictly off memory concerning the context of that comment, but if recollection serves, you seem to have assumed that it's the people themselves shoulder the sole blame for their reactions to the many, many problems within the institutional model and its many dynamics in its programmatic approach to what it sees as being the "Christian life," which I consider to be fundamentally flawed. Now, I fully understand that tendency to lay it squarely on the shoulders of the laity, but not everyone shares that sentiment, which is why I dredged up that "false dilemma framing" as being something others out there may apply to your overall premise and conclusion on some things.
I do not remember saying the "ancients did not know much, or only the world they imagined from the bible."
Sorry, but I thought for sure that was a direct quote from your statements, OR it was the logical conclusion to your prior statements that seemed to point in one or both of those direction. I believe it was rooted more in the logical conclusion to your statements likely to motivate said conclusion.
I have been clear that the scholarship of ancient history indicates that there were a broad array of beliefs, practices and organizational structures that spontaneously arose in the pre-Roman State capture of Christianity which led to it's "standardization."
There were indeed a small hand full of them, yes, but nowhere near as numerous as what we see since or even today, as I'm sure we can both agree.
I have no dog in the dogma wars that Christian sects are waging, thus I am uninterested in mixing swords with them.
Understood. Those debates will never be resolved in this world until the Millennial Kingdom, after having been grealty .
Your criticism of my comments:
“prosperity gospel with no R.O.I” caricature the target groups’ beliefs and motives, making the opponent easier to dismiss. These seeming weaknesses give to the other camps the ammo they need for counter." I am not stoking any ecliastical fires because I have no agenda other than to honestly report what available data indicates about the trends up and down in the Christian community. However, I have constrained my comments to address what is happening in North American Christianity. Whether they preach a prosperity gospel, in this list most do, the top 10 Pastors by income in America have an accumulated wealth of over $1 billion. When they are excluded, the average Protestant pastor makes $60,000 a year.
Yes, when also excluding the other perks that go with the job, but that's another topic entirely.
MM