Impact of the war in Iran and the Straight of Hormuz being shut down

[ZNP]

I did not mention Venezuela in the title because the title was already quite long, but this is the first post and I want to make it clear this thread is discussing how the disruption to the previous flow of oil is impacting others around the world.

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We use oil to make plastic. Oil for transportation and food production is more of a priority than for plastic production, so you would expect to see a shortage in oil hit plastic production hard, and a country that manufactures a lot of stuff that uses plastic will also be hit hard.

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I wanted to make sure everyone understood that Venezuela is tied to this war on Iran because in reality it is a war on oil being exported to Iran's allies which is really oil exported to China and her allies.

 

[ZNP]

The point is that we cannot simply look at the situation in the US to determine the impact of this war. The situation in Cuba and China is dire. Do not be confused by conflicting reports, When you have a billion people you can have a dire situation for 100 million while also being a very strong and terrifying adversary. Likewise we need to see Ukraine and Russia. Instead of cheering for the recent military success that Ukraine has had on Russia, note the cost. Ukraine is the bread basket for Europe. This is now the fourth year of this conflict and it has taken a huge toll on Ukraine and thus on their ability to grow food. Likewise, Russia is a major oil exporter and this war has taken a huge toll on that. So we are not simply squeezing oil from the Straight of Hormuz, you have to include Venezuela and Russia into that equation.

Secondly, a peace treaty does not undo all that damage that has been done. The world's economy has two engines, the US and China. Best case scenario for the US and out allies is a severe recession. But for China and their allies I would argue a great depression is already taking place.

Thirdly, we learned from Gaza that when people are in abject poverty it is a fertile breeding ground for terrorism and mercenaries. So this will not simply be horrific in other countries, it will spread to the west.

 

[ZNP]

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[ZNP]

An indication of what comes next

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[ZNP]

Peace negotiations;

There are some disagreements between the US and Iran.

The US wants Iran to stop their nuclear program and open the straight of Hormuz.

Iran has countered, they want sovereignty over the Straight of Hormuz and they want the US to pay war reparations.

 

[gb9]

Peace negotiations;

There are some disagreements between the US and Iran.

The US wants Iran to stop their nuclear program and open the straight of Hormuz.

Iran has countered, they want sovereignty over the Straight of Hormuz and they want the US to pay war reparations.

seems to be far apart on a peace deal at this point..

 

[ZNP]

seems to be far apart on a peace deal at this point..

The first step is to always let the other person know what it would take for a reconciliation. Trump wants unconditional surrender and Iran wants reparations from the US. The US rules the air and the sea, so the last ditch hope of Iran is to lure our troops into a ground war. It is so obviously a trap.

 

[gb9]

The first step is to always let the other person know what it would take for a reconciliation. Trump wants unconditional surrender and Iran wants reparations from the US. The US rules the air and the sea, so the last ditch hope of Iran is to lure our troops into a ground war. It is so obviously a trap.

and hopefully trump and co. are smart enough not to fall for it..

 

[ZNP]

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