Revolution in Iran
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Reuters Exclusive:
Saudi Arabia has privately conveyed to Iran that while Riyadh prefers a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Tehran, continued strikes on Saudi territory or critical energy facilities could force a response in kind.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan delivered the message during a recent call or communication with Iranian officials.
Riyadh emphasized support for mediation and de-escalation but warned that persistent attacks would compel Saudi Arabia to allow US forces to use bases in the kingdom for military operations against Iran.
Two Iranian sources confirmed the exchange, noting Riyadh’s demand to halt attacks on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
Saudi Arabia has privately conveyed to Iran that while Riyadh prefers a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Tehran, continued strikes on Saudi territory or critical energy facilities could force a response in kind.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan delivered the message during a recent call or communication with Iranian officials.
Riyadh emphasized support for mediation and de-escalation but warned that persistent attacks would compel Saudi Arabia to allow US forces to use bases in the kingdom for military operations against Iran.
Two Iranian sources confirmed the exchange, noting Riyadh’s demand to halt attacks on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
Saurav
@ThinkWithSaurav
53m
See, Saudi Arabia and Iran had actually mended their relationship over the last two years. China brokered a deal between them in 2023. Diplomatic ties were restored. Both sides were moving on. And then February 28 happened and everything unravelled overnight.
Now here is the part that makes this even more complicated. Iran is publicly denying it attacked the Ras Tanura refinery. Their state media called it an Israeli false flag operation. But two weeks before the war even started, Iran's own regime mouthpiece Kayhan had already written, if this war begins, Gulf energy infrastructure including oil refineries, pipelines, and export terminals will be targeted. They threatened it in writing. Then when it happened, they denied it. That tells you exactly how this information war is being fought alongside the real one.
And the damage on the ground is very real. Ras Tanura — Saudi Aramco's largest refinery, 550,000 barrels a day — shut down. Hit twice in two days. Then Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, the world's largest LNG plant, supplying 20% of global LNG output, was also hit. Qatar halted production of downstream products — fertiliser, polymers, methanol, aluminium. This is not just an oil story anymore. This is a full supply chain story.
To understand how serious this is, think back to 2019. When the Houthis hit Abqaiq and Khurais, they knocked out 5.7 million barrels a day — about 5% of global supply — for a few weeks. That caused one of the largest single day oil price spikes on record. What is happening right now is already bigger than that. And analysts are saying the market is still not pricing in the full risk.
Iran's strategy here is not random. An analyst from Qatar University explained it clearly Iran's message is not just to America or Israel. It is to the entire world. Make the cost of this war global, not just regional. Hit enough energy infrastructure across enough countries that everyone starts feeling the pain. Make the pressure to stop the war come from every direction at once.
So Saudi Arabia is furious. Their military is on full alert. But here is the tension they are sitting with, they want to retaliate, but they are also very clear about what comes next if they do. Iran may actually be trying to pull them in. Widen the war. Because once Saudi Arabia enters, this is no longer a US-Israel versus Iran conflict. It becomes something much harder to contain.
Saudi Arabia does not want a failed Iranian state sitting right next door. Israel is a thousand kilometres away, they can think about regime collapse as a victory. For Saudi Arabia it is a nightmare. So this warning is both real and carefully calculated at the same time.
The Gulf states are in an impossible position. They host US military bases which makes them targets. They cannot fully leave this war. They cannot fully join it. And their own infrastructure is burning while they watch.
Saudi Arabia's warning to Iran is not just diplomacy. It is a country that has run out of patience but has not yet run out of options. How long that balance holds that is the question right now.
@ThinkWithSaurav
53m
See, Saudi Arabia and Iran had actually mended their relationship over the last two years. China brokered a deal between them in 2023. Diplomatic ties were restored. Both sides were moving on. And then February 28 happened and everything unravelled overnight.
Now here is the part that makes this even more complicated. Iran is publicly denying it attacked the Ras Tanura refinery. Their state media called it an Israeli false flag operation. But two weeks before the war even started, Iran's own regime mouthpiece Kayhan had already written, if this war begins, Gulf energy infrastructure including oil refineries, pipelines, and export terminals will be targeted. They threatened it in writing. Then when it happened, they denied it. That tells you exactly how this information war is being fought alongside the real one.
And the damage on the ground is very real. Ras Tanura — Saudi Aramco's largest refinery, 550,000 barrels a day — shut down. Hit twice in two days. Then Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, the world's largest LNG plant, supplying 20% of global LNG output, was also hit. Qatar halted production of downstream products — fertiliser, polymers, methanol, aluminium. This is not just an oil story anymore. This is a full supply chain story.
To understand how serious this is, think back to 2019. When the Houthis hit Abqaiq and Khurais, they knocked out 5.7 million barrels a day — about 5% of global supply — for a few weeks. That caused one of the largest single day oil price spikes on record. What is happening right now is already bigger than that. And analysts are saying the market is still not pricing in the full risk.
Iran's strategy here is not random. An analyst from Qatar University explained it clearly Iran's message is not just to America or Israel. It is to the entire world. Make the cost of this war global, not just regional. Hit enough energy infrastructure across enough countries that everyone starts feeling the pain. Make the pressure to stop the war come from every direction at once.
So Saudi Arabia is furious. Their military is on full alert. But here is the tension they are sitting with, they want to retaliate, but they are also very clear about what comes next if they do. Iran may actually be trying to pull them in. Widen the war. Because once Saudi Arabia enters, this is no longer a US-Israel versus Iran conflict. It becomes something much harder to contain.
Saudi Arabia does not want a failed Iranian state sitting right next door. Israel is a thousand kilometres away, they can think about regime collapse as a victory. For Saudi Arabia it is a nightmare. So this warning is both real and carefully calculated at the same time.
The Gulf states are in an impossible position. They host US military bases which makes them targets. They cannot fully leave this war. They cannot fully join it. And their own infrastructure is burning while they watch.
Saudi Arabia's warning to Iran is not just diplomacy. It is a country that has run out of patience but has not yet run out of options. How long that balance holds that is the question right now.
There is no free lunch
OK, so that is going to cut off oil going to China. If they enter the global market they will bid the price up. If they can't get oil their economy grinds to a halt. China's economy is like one of the two engines to the world's economy. One way or another the world will pay for this oil being cut off. It is a zero sum game. All the sanctions have done is make the oil that Iran ships to China more expensive. Either that means Iran gets less profit or China has slimmer margins. But either way it enters the global market chain. Also, cutting off oil from Iran and Venezuela to China threatens China existentially. This is why Japan entered WW2 and it is likely going to be the reason China enters WW3.
You guys should have given up your gasoline cars for EV, if only you had listen to Biden.
