The Greatest depression is coming, are you ready?
- Thread starter ZNP
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China is down close to 34% of its peak holdings of US debt and there has been a consistent selling of the debt month after month for the last few years. They have been a net seller of US debt for the last 17 months straight.
When one of your biggest purchasers of US debt becomes one of your biggest sellers it is clearly a pressure on the debt to raise rates. Over 50% of the world is switching to a gold backed security and thus may have stopped buying Treasuries. So if you have lost half of your customers and some of those who were your customers are now selling your debt it is a very dangerous situation. The reason that Powell paused the rate hikes was because the banks were in danger of collapse. However the rest of the world continued their rate hikes so that it doesn't matter anymore what Powell does. In order to sell bonds you will have to raise rates and yes, if China delivers the knockout punch by dumping $800 billion in bonds on the market we could see a collapse of banks and a huge spike in the rates.
There are 118 countries that have taken steps towards de dollarization.
China is down 34% from it's peak holdings of US debt. Saudi Arabia is down 40% from it's peak. Not only so but this is over the last decade and with our current rate of inflation our money is worth half of what it is now in ten years. Therefore if you take inflation into account it is very likely that in 2014 dollars their holdings are well below 50% of what they were then.
Hi ZNP,
This is a very pertinent discussion for this day and age. I find myself seeing two contingencies ahead.
I believe that believers can be too worried about what is coming and let it paralyze, but I think there are some good and practical things to be about as we prepare, in wisdom, how we are going to negotiate what is going on in this changing world.
If we think about it, for almost all of human history people have lived on little. The wise poor were able to make it and the foolish would receive the consequences of their action/inaction. Even today most of the world is set up to live on very little, though in these last few years it have been getting more difficult for everyone.
I have been writing about this very topic for a little while now. It would behoove us to take seriously the source of our daily sustenance (beginning with our Lord) and follow that with living simply and in wisdom.
I don't know what the rules are here about sharing links, but I would be happy to give you a link to the publication that I am writing for. It is a small start-up that helps connect people who want to start small agrarian/agriculture groups. Also I have been looking into the depth and resolve of the early Church and their commitment to the Lord and one another. This is where we need to be headed. The the body of Christ where He is the head and we live out the Kingdom of God.
This is full of good information.
I would just point out a few things. The collapse in a currency is not in a straight line, it is an exponential curve. Meanwhile all the estimates of when the US is no longer a reserve currency are based on a straight line, the reason for that is you don't want to be accused of creating a panic. Anyone who knows how this works can easily see what you are doing and anyone who doesn't know how this works can remain in the dark.
Second, they are pointing out that people are leaving the US currency, not because of the inflation and irresponsible printing of money but because of abusive practices where the US punishes people they disagree with. The key point to me is that there are three valid reasons for a central bank to switch to gold: some countries don't want to be subject to the whims of the US, some countries don't want to have to pay for our inflation, and some countries will see everyone else moving to gold and like a stampede, will simply follow the herd. Already it is more than half of all countries are moving to gold and abandoning the US dollar. These three factors are like a consistent overwhelming force on the US debt to raise rates. As soon as people see that we are no longer in charge of deciding when to raise rates they will panic and there will be a stampede to dump US dollars.
I would just point out a few things. The collapse in a currency is not in a straight line, it is an exponential curve. Meanwhile all the estimates of when the US is no longer a reserve currency are based on a straight line, the reason for that is you don't want to be accused of creating a panic. Anyone who knows how this works can easily see what you are doing and anyone who doesn't know how this works can remain in the dark.
Second, they are pointing out that people are leaving the US currency, not because of the inflation and irresponsible printing of money but because of abusive practices where the US punishes people they disagree with. The key point to me is that there are three valid reasons for a central bank to switch to gold: some countries don't want to be subject to the whims of the US, some countries don't want to have to pay for our inflation, and some countries will see everyone else moving to gold and like a stampede, will simply follow the herd. Already it is more than half of all countries are moving to gold and abandoning the US dollar. These three factors are like a consistent overwhelming force on the US debt to raise rates. As soon as people see that we are no longer in charge of deciding when to raise rates they will panic and there will be a stampede to dump US dollars.
It isn't just the US debt, if you remove 50% of the purchasers of Western debt to go join BRICS then the countries that remain like UK, Germany and the US all must compete for a shrinking pool of consumers of their debt at exactly the same time that the amount of debt they are trying to sell is spiking.
The pieces are falling into place -- we know the pandemic hit the middle class shop owner the hardest, it has been very hard on retail business and shopping malls. On the other hand it has been great for online shopping and online platforms. Amazon.com has done very well. If you want to bring in a digital currency and eliminate buying and selling without your digital currency and digital ID shut those businesses down. It will be so much easier for someone who does all their shopping online to accept a digital ID and bank account.
Loss of Identity – The Cost to belong to the New Euro Community 06/30/2023
Loss of Identity – The Cost to belong to the New Euro Community 06/30/2023
Antoni: Bidenomics Bury Americans Under Inflation, Families Have Lost Over 5k On Average Under Biden
https://rumble.com/v2x76ie-antoni-b...der-inflation-families-have-lost-over-5k.html
https://rumble.com/v2x76ie-antoni-b...der-inflation-families-have-lost-over-5k.html
17 countries that are major holders of US debt have become sellers over the last few months.
Israel has reduced its holdings of US debt by close to 40% on the last 18 months.
Meanwhile the US government borrows an additional 240 billion this last month.
In addition to these 17 countries selling US debt and the US selling their debt the Fed is also selling its holdings of treasuries. There has been a net selloff of $607 billion in US treasuries.
So one wonders who are the chumps that are buying up all this debt that no one else wants? I would suspect it is the same chumps that always buy up that stuff, stupid taxpayers. Even pension funds probably are shying away so my guess is it must be Social Security system which is buying it up.
At some point the US will have to raise the rates on the bonds to sell them and once that happens it is like sailing boat taking on water, the market for US debt can rapidly collapse. You wonder why the rates haven't gone up yet and again, I suspect it is because the buyers are really, really stupid -- ie taxpayers who are in the dark.
China is the biggest producer of wheat, biggest producer of rice and are #2 for Corn. The are not big exporters, they eat it all, but it is important to understand how big an impact China has because if they have trouble they will have to buy up food from around the world.
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