The Greatest depression is coming, are you ready?
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I suspect that during the pandemic their demand skyrocketed. But with millions dying and tens of thousands being laid off, I bet demand is down. For example when Walmart recently announced demand at their stores was up that was seen as a negative indicator, that people were leaving the high end stores to shop at Walmart. I also suspect that automation, robots and AI are also a factor.
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Excellent explanation for why the Banks are in a red alert situation with their commercial property loans
Many commercial real estate deals right now are in this crisis. The banks are panicked and the investors are panicked. To make things worse all the layoffs are dumping a lot of commercial real estate onto the market so that will make it very hard on any property to keep the tenancy up and the rent up.
Many commercial real estate deals right now are in this crisis. The banks are panicked and the investors are panicked. To make things worse all the layoffs are dumping a lot of commercial real estate onto the market so that will make it very hard on any property to keep the tenancy up and the rent up.
He points out that many of the lenders have taken the properties back. In doing that the investors lost everything and the banks basically got nothing but didn't lose money.
The problem though is that the properties are not sold because all the investors lost their shirt.
That said, if interest rates go down and the economy revs up the banks will be OK. But, with the tariffs, and embargoes, and the war, and layoffs due to AI and robots, what is the chance of that?
The only reason the banks are solvent is because they can call those properties they have taken back "an asset". It is possible that things will get worse before they get better and so all those "assets" will have to be revalued downwards triggering bankruptcies.
The problem though is that the properties are not sold because all the investors lost their shirt.
That said, if interest rates go down and the economy revs up the banks will be OK. But, with the tariffs, and embargoes, and the war, and layoffs due to AI and robots, what is the chance of that?
The only reason the banks are solvent is because they can call those properties they have taken back "an asset". It is possible that things will get worse before they get better and so all those "assets" will have to be revalued downwards triggering bankruptcies.
Seriously, you still don't understand what is happening?
Have you paid attention to what the 3d printer did to China's export economy of cheap manufactured goods?
It is called R&D. First they design a checkout register that is self service. Then they test it out. Once they understand how it will work in real life situations they sell them. Companies buy a few, try them out, and soon calculate they are a good return on investment. Then they buy more and you start to see cashiers replaced. Perhaps they cut all their hours so they are all not full time and they all don't get benefits. But about six months after that you start to see a Walmart with 32 self checkout machines and where they used to have ten cashiers working at any given time now they have two.
Now we are seeing that with AI, these companies are all in the phase of "we have tested this, it gives us a good ROI, now lets begin to really invest"
Prior to layoffs you have a hiring freeze. We are passed that point. These people being laid off are being replaced by AI. It takes about six months to fully train the AI to do a job to where you can trust it to act independently with minimal oversight.
Six months from now when college kids graduate from college there won't be any fortune 500 companies hiring. Instead you are going to see these layoffs really pick up over the next six months. I suppose that will be when everyone finally does wake up.
Have you paid attention to what the 3d printer did to China's export economy of cheap manufactured goods?
It is called R&D. First they design a checkout register that is self service. Then they test it out. Once they understand how it will work in real life situations they sell them. Companies buy a few, try them out, and soon calculate they are a good return on investment. Then they buy more and you start to see cashiers replaced. Perhaps they cut all their hours so they are all not full time and they all don't get benefits. But about six months after that you start to see a Walmart with 32 self checkout machines and where they used to have ten cashiers working at any given time now they have two.
Now we are seeing that with AI, these companies are all in the phase of "we have tested this, it gives us a good ROI, now lets begin to really invest"
Prior to layoffs you have a hiring freeze. We are passed that point. These people being laid off are being replaced by AI. It takes about six months to fully train the AI to do a job to where you can trust it to act independently with minimal oversight.
Six months from now when college kids graduate from college there won't be any fortune 500 companies hiring. Instead you are going to see these layoffs really pick up over the next six months. I suppose that will be when everyone finally does wake up.