Media failing us again, sensationalizing Covid-19

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

Not calling you a liar I want to read it for myself.
Thank you, I will get back to you.

When someone says "prove it" it usually means they doubt what you're saying...otherwise one simply asks nicely.

The level of both ignorance combined with arrogance is stunning in today's world. People hear someone like Dr. Fauci on CNN saying "Coronavirus is at least 10x more deadly than the seasonal flu". and they simply accept it and assume they're now informed.....instead of looking at the actual data used to reach that conclusion (woefully insufficient) and without sufficient understanding of actual science to know that most hypothesis offered up are ultimately proven to be false.

 

[JamOn]

EH, you're calling me a liar, how very charitbable of you. But I can easily share the report, I've shared it on my Fbk profile along with my commentary:

https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/5/Imperial College COVID19 NPI modelling 16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3Mac-Bcz9O1eRiK_nHl5dIyGYEUtnfrzeewOd3pcm3i5xY4jzRwHOb30Y

Would you also like me to show you the reporting on sites like The Financial Times that cite how it was this report that led governments in countries like the United States, Great Britain and Canada to basically put the economy into a coma?

Here's a snippet from the report citing the forecasted death figures for the U.S. and GB (Great Britain). The report only dealt with those two countries, but said that other western nations could expect similar proportional results based on population:

"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US".

I'll leave you to read the 20 page report yourself, you'll see that they forecast over 2 million deaths in the United States if nothing were to be done. Happy browsing and God Bless.

I read a good part of the link, was informative, I’ll read some more on it. but it doesn’t appear to be anything stated a do nothing approach that’s good info.

here’s a clip from it as well.

(( This means it is difficult to be definitive about the likely initial duration of measures which will be required, except that it will be several months. Future decisions on when and for how long to relax policies will need to be informed by ongoing surveillance. ))


it may become a seesaw approach areas in high suppression then in mitigation back to suppression, to keep nations operational.

 

[EleventhHour]

When someone says "prove it" it usually means they doubt what you're saying...otherwise one simply asks nicely.

The level of both ignorance combined with arrogance is stunning in today's world. People hear someone like Dr. Fauci on CNN saying "Coronavirus is at least 10x more deadly than the seasonal flu". and they simply accept it and assume they're now informed.....instead of looking at the actual data used to reach that conclusion (woefully insufficient) and without sufficient understanding of actual science to know that most hypothesis offered up are ultimately proven to be false.

You have a research background, you study statistics?

 

[EleventhHour]

EH, you're calling me a liar, how very charitbable of you. But I can easily share the report, I've shared it on my Fbk profile along with my commentary:

https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/5/Imperial College COVID19 NPI modelling 16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3Mac-Bcz9O1eRiK_nHl5dIyGYEUtnfrzeewOd3pcm3i5xY4jzRwHOb30Y

Would you also like me to show you the reporting on sites like The Financial Times that cite how it was this report that led governments in countries like the United States, Great Britain and Canada to basically put the economy into a coma?

Here's a snippet from the report citing the forecasted death figures for the U.S. and GB (Great Britain). The report only dealt with those two countries, but said that other western nations could expect similar proportional results based on population:

"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US".

I'll leave you to read the 20 page report yourself, you'll see that they forecast over 2 million deaths in the United States if nothing were to be done. Happy browsing and God Bless.

What are you stating their models are wrong do you have the statistical analysis to prove this?
Obviously something is being done.

You still are not getting it really... this is very simply about overwhelming the health care system.

 

[EleventhHour]

Credit to @eternally-gratefull
Thank you

These people forget
the only people being tested are medical people and people who are told to be test about a doctor

It is very likely the official
Could is skewed possibly up to 50% of those actually infected

They also do not realize. The reason for the call to keep people home has
Nothing to do with how many are sick it is about how many will actually need emergency care needing hospital care and this being so high our hospitals can not handle it. Imagine having to turn away people having serious injuries because our icu”s And CCU’s are full. Having to basically chose who lives and dies

Like what is happening in Italy right niw

Yet let’s open the ya back up

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

I read a good part of the link, was informative, I’ll read some more on it.

here’s a clip from it as well.

(( This means it is difficult to be definitive about the likely initial duration of measures which will be required, except that it will be several months. Future decisions on when and for how long to relax policies will need to be informed by ongoing surveillance. ))


it may become a seesaw approach areas in high suppression then in mitigation back to suppression, to keep nations operational.

The entire report needs to be put in the trash can, or if its in England....then into the Dustbin. When it comes to science the three most important things are #1 Data, #2 Data and #3 Data. This report did not have enough data to draw the conclusions that it did....so anything it has to say should be disregarded. The authors relied too heavily on incomplete (and perhaps fraudulent) data from China as well as woefully inadequate reporting from Italy.

There was another report put out by a team from Oxford (I have not read that actual report) that forecasts that the pandemic has pretty much run its course, suggesting that up to half of the British population has been exposed, and has thus built up an immunity....the oft cited "communal immunity". Again, there isn't enough data yet to draw that conclusion...but ultimately I do agree with the need to scale back mitigation efforts and to get people back to work.....continuing these draconian measures is going to cause lots of harm and in my opinion the harm of 'mitigation' is worse than any benefits.

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

What are you stating their models are wrong do you have the statistical analysis to prove this?
Obviously something is being done.

You still are not getting it really... this is very simply about overwhelming the health care system.

If 1.1+ million people die in the United States, then the models will have been proven right. However even Dr. Fausci (sp?) is dialing back the rhetoric, now saying that the death total might only reach 100 to 200 thousand. He actually used the would "could" which inherently means that it could also be less.

We shall see....

 

[EleventhHour]

If 1.1+ million people die in the United States, then the models will have been proven right. However even Dr. Fausci (sp?) is dialing back the rhetoric, now saying that the death total might only reach 100 to 200 thousand. He actually used the would "could" which inherently means that it could also be less.

We shall see....

Do yo have a background in statistical analysis to draw these conclusions?

 

[JamOn]

The entire report needs to be put in the trash can, or if its in England....then into the Dustbin. When it comes to science the three most important things are #1 Data, #2 Data and #3 Data. This report did not have enough data to draw the conclusions that it did....so anything it has to say should be disregarded. The authors relied too heavily on incomplete (and perhaps fraudulent) data from China as well as woefully inadequate reporting from Italy.

There was another report put out by a team from Oxford (I have not read that actual report) that forecasts that the pandemic has pretty much run its course, suggesting that up to half of the British population has been exposed, and has thus built up an immunity....the oft cited "communal immunity". Again, there isn't enough data yet to draw that conclusion...but ultimately I do agree with the need to scale back mitigation efforts and to get people back to work.....continuing these draconian measures is going to cause lots of harm and in my opinion the harm of 'mitigation' is worse than any benefits.

Probably the way this virus is moving, each month the data will be trashed because more data is coming out as it is collected in real-time.

 

[Billyd]

Many of you are trying to compare the death rates from the flu with those of the covid19 are forgetting one important factor. It's called business as usual.

Most here know my outspoken disgust for the economic shutdown. Today I am glad the powers to be ignored me.

Two weeks ago our governor shut down our schools, then followed with implementing the president's social distancing policy. That shutdown our tourism economy during the busiest season resulted in billions in lost revenue. Think about the number of cases of covid19 that we would have now if we had remained open. To date there has been on case here, and it was brought in by a wayward traveler.

There is no comparison to the flu. The actions taken to date have prevented many of those deaths that were originally predicted. The death rate for our state has come down to 1.3% and the hospitalization rate is down to 14%. As testing and early detection increases, both will improve.

The president just extended his declaration until Apr 30.

 

[JamOn]

Incubation might be as long as 14 days til first signs of the infection, deaths has been happening mostly about 14 days after first signs, about a length of one month per person.

I have no idea what other viruses that caused humans get ill from have done, as far as from first being infected to symptoms to fatal. does anyone know of info on that?

 

[Didymous]

i am disgusted that people compare deaths and say it wasnt as much as so and so. God cares about the sparrows not one falls without his knowledge, how much more does He care for people?

You're a rather intolerant person, aren't you?

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

Do yo have a background in statistical analysis to draw these conclusions?

I had some science courses in university and was exposed to statistical analysis, but I do not have an actual degree in that academic discipline. One doesn't need a degree in aviation to understand the concept of how lift works on an airplanes wing though, nor does one need a BA in statistical analysis to see when a forecast is way off the mark.

The Imperial College team took the numbers they had available from China and Italy....made certain assumptions (like 70% compliance with mitigation efforts) factored in elements like the age of the population, (which is why GB's forecasted death number is higher per capita than the US, GB has an older population).

The only to do now is sit back and wait.....was their statistical analysis correct or not, and if it failed to what degree...were they off by a factor of just 10 or 20% or significantly higher.

Donald Trump took a beating for saying Coronavirus will be no worse than a bad flu season....according to the CDC deaths from influenza in the United States range as high as 61,000 (or so) in a bad year. When the dust settles we shall see which number was closer to the truth...1.1 million from the CIL or ~61,000 from DJT.

The latest number I'm seeing for the United States is less than 3,000...the global total isn't even 50,000 as I type this.

 

[Billyd]

Incubation might be as long as 14 days til first signs of the infection, deaths has been happening mostly about 14 days after first signs, about a length of one month per person.

I have no idea what other viruses that caused humans get ill from have done, as far as from first being infected to symptoms to fatal. does anyone know of info on that?

This site gives you the data for Florida by state and by county. The numbers include a graph of daily new cases.

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86

 

[JamOn]

This site gives you the data for Florida by state and by county. The numbers include a graph of daily new cases.

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86

Yea my state has one going also, but I was referring to like the Spanish flu, time of incubation to symptoms to fatality average during that outbreak.

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

Many of you are trying to compare the death rates from the flu with those of the covid19 are forgetting one important factor. It's called business as usual.

Most here know my outspoken disgust for the economic shutdown. Today I am glad the powers to be ignored me.

Two weeks ago our governor shut down our schools, then followed with implementing the president's social distancing policy. That shutdown our tourism economy during the busiest season resulted in billions in lost revenue. Think about the number of cases of covid19 that we would have now if we had remained open. To date there has been on case here, and it was brought in by a wayward traveler.

There is no comparison to the flu. The actions taken to date have prevented many of those deaths that were originally predicted. The death rate for our state has come down to 1.3% and the hospitalization rate is down to 14%. As testing and early detection increases, both will improve.

The president just extended his declaration until Apr 30.

Its Dr. Fausci (sp?) himself who has invited comparisons with the seasonal flu by claiming that Coronavirus is at least 10x more lethal. For that to be accurate it would mean 10x more deaths from covid-19 than from the flu. So far in the United States the CDC estimates that there have been between 24,000 to 62,000 deaths during this 2019/2020 flu season.

One note though, this is not exactly an apples to apples comparison because the flu season starts on Oct 1st and lasts between 22 to 27 weeks. So while there is about 6 months worth of flu data, the covid-19 data only started being collected at the end of January, about 9 weeks worth in other words.

I want to add that I am complying with all the social distancing and other protocols being mandated....regardless of my opinion on whether or not this is an over reaction, these efforts along with frequent hand washing and all the rest, they will at least slow the spread of both coronavirus and influenza....and both are deadly diseases, in particular for the elderly and/or immune comprimised.

If you know someone who is elderly, and/or those with conditions like Diabetes, Cancer, Hypertension....help them out, in my opinion they should be house bound until this pandemic is over.

 

[JamOn]

Its Dr. Fausci (sp?) himself who has invited comparisons with the seasonal flu by claiming that Coronavirus is at least 10x more lethal. For that to be accurate it would mean 10x more deaths from covid-19 than from the flu. So far in the United States the CDC estimates that there have been between 24,000 to 62,000 deaths during this 2019/2020 flu season.

One note though, this is not exactly an apples to apples comparison because the flu season starts on Oct 1st and lasts between 22 to 27 weeks. So while there is about 6 months worth of flu data, the covid-19 data only started being collected at the end of January, about 9 weeks worth in other words.

I want to add that I am complying with all the social distancing and other protocols being mandated....regardless of my opinion on whether or not this is an over reaction, these efforts along with frequent hand washing and all the rest, they will at least slow the spread of both coronavirus and influenza....and both are deadly diseases, in particular for the elderly and/or immune comprimised.

If you know someone who is elderly, and/or those with conditions like Diabetes, Cancer, Hypertension....help them out, in my opinion they should be house bound until this pandemic is over.

10x seems much at this point but it does look like about 3x as of 8:05pm eastern time.

1114 to flu

3095 to corona

 

[JamOn]

Hmm I can’t leave much off the table, especially when I come cross government agencies criticizing other parts of the government. interesting read on the seasonal flu.

I’ve never even heard of the Hong Kong flu of 68/69

https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-—-influenza-deaths-request-correction-rfc

 

[JamOn]

From the source.

her sister said,
I am here as a respiratory therapist and it has struck my home, my family and I’m lost for words,” Wright said.



March 29 (GMT)

• 18276 new cases and 255 new deaths in the United States
  
  Among the deaths: a 42-year-old woman in Arkansas with no pre-existing health condition (and who had never been hospitalized before, according to her sister) who felt "a little sick" on March 15 and thought it to be a cold or a sinus infection. After developing shortness of breath and cough that wouldn't go away, she was admitted to the hospital on March 24 and tested positive to Covid-19. She was put on a ventilator in ICU and, after 4 days (on Saturday, March 28), she died. [source]

 

[EleventhHour]

I hardly watch any broadcast news, most of what I see is on-line from mainstream news outlets, and I can fact check everything.....

When I found out that governments like in Canada and the US were putting the economy into a coma based on a report issued by the Imperial College of London I went and read the actual report.....guess what, the predictions they were making were based on the result of computer modelling, and the problem is they didn't have enough data to make predictions with any degree of accuracy....but that didn't stop them from having the acorn hitting their head and deciding to run around telling everyone the sky was falling.

This report is based on no mitigation or suppression of the virus.
It makes basic assumptions.
Computer modelling means that you plug in the formula and run the scenarios. Unless one has advanced calculus and statistical analysis ( which it is not even close to understanding the concept of how an plane flies) it not likely one will understand the data.

And how do you know they did not have enough data?

I really do not get your point.
Put the economy in a coma... so what are you suggesting letting the virus run rampant, far more people will die than those with the virus.