Media failing us again, sensationalizing Covid-19

[EleventhHour]

The entire report needs to be put in the trash can, or if its in England....then into the Dustbin. When it comes to science the three most important things are #1 Data, #2 Data and #3 Data. This report did not have enough data to draw the conclusions that it did....so anything it has to say should be disregarded. The authors relied too heavily on incomplete (and perhaps fraudulent) data from China as well as woefully inadequate reporting from Italy.

There was another report put out by a team from Oxford (I have not read that actual report) that forecasts that the pandemic has pretty much run its course, suggesting that up to half of the British population has been exposed, and has thus built up an immunity....the oft cited "communal immunity". Again, there isn't enough data yet to draw that conclusion...but ultimately I do agree with the need to scale back mitigation efforts and to get people back to work.....continuing these draconian measures is going to cause lots of harm and in my opinion the harm of 'mitigation' is worse than any benefits.

You really have nothing to back up your assertions about the harm of mitigation being worse than the benefits.

The real problem is the people rely on government .. if people relied on themselves they could whether the storm.

 

[Lanolin]

You're a rather intolerant person, aren't you?

yep i have zeros tolerance for fools who dont listen.

 

[Lanolin]

the US govt has been a big failure from the time of when free citizens of the US started assasinating their own presidents. Your enemy is in your own country. Im sorry to tell you that.

 

[Lanolin]

its not self reliance either.

all reading this are meant to be christians. act like it.
do you rely on yourself or do you rely on the Lord?

 

[Lanolin]

Jesus told a parable of the ten wise and ten foolish virgins. I think its good to have a recap of what that parable was.

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

This report is based on no mitigation or suppression of the virus.
It makes basic assumptions.
Computer modelling means that you plug in the formula and run the scenarios. Unless one has advanced calculus and statistical analysis ( which it is not even close to understanding the concept of how an plane flies) it not likely one will understand the data.

And how do you know they did not have enough data?

I really do not get your point.
Put the economy in a coma... so what are you suggesting letting the virus run rampant, far more people will die than those with the virus.

For the United States the report forecast 2+ million dead if nothing was done....and 1.1 to 1.2 million with the mitigation efforts taking place....obviously those projections were way off. If the numbers get to ~60,000 in the U.S. then it will match a bad flu season....

 

[Lanolin]

you need to do you stats as the virus, like all viruses do, multiply exponentially.
you need to figure out how many peoole live in your country or state and where the clusters of known cases are. it will come through the airways so your major cities with airports are most at risk where there are more people.

 

[Lanolin]

the best thing people can do right now, is stay at home, get on your knees, humble yourselves and pray.

 

[EleventhHour]

For the United States the report forecast 2+ million dead if nothing was done....and 1.1 to 1.2 million with the mitigation efforts taking place....obviously those projections were way off. If the numbers get to ~60,000 in the U.S. then it will match a bad flu season....

You make assertions but you cannot back them up with the math....smh

 

[EleventhHour]

the US govt has been a big failure from the time of when free citizens of the US started assasinating their own presidents. Your enemy is in your own country. Im sorry to tell you that.

This is a tragic statement for sure

Tiananmen Square.... leaders killing/assassinating their own citizens who were protesting against the government... why .....to throw off the yoke of oppression.

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

You make assertions but you cannot back them up with the math....smh

Give me an example?

24,980 deaths in Italy from the flu during the 22-27 week long 2016/2017 flu season. Current death total from Coronavirus with data having been collected since the end of January is almost 11,000. You do the math and tell me if you think Covid-19 will be 10x as deadly as influenza.

What's your independent conclusion based on the facts?

 

[EleventhHour]

Give me an example?

24,980 deaths in Italy from the flu during the 22-27 week long 2016/2017 flu season. Current death total from Coronavirus with data having been collected since the end of January is almost 11,000. You do the math and tell me if you think Covid-19 will be 10x as deadly as influenza.

What's your independent conclusion based on the facts?

Seriously, do you really think these calculations are that easy. I understand the complexity of the variables and factors at play here, that is my point.

I am not making the assertion that this virus is nothing more than a flu... that would be you.

 

[EleventhHour]

its not self reliance either.

all reading this are meant to be christians. act like it.
do you rely on yourself or do you rely on the Lord?

You really like to add to people's words and dare I say twist to something that was not even in view...smh!!

Anyway not responding to you anymore

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

This is an example of how I believe the media should be reporting on coronavirus, from a Canadian's perspective:

UPDATE on the CoronaVirus Pandemic in Italy

Italys total deaths from the novel coronavirus has now reached 10,800 and will soon surpass 11,000. Experts are encouraged that the number of deaths has dropped in the hardest hit European nation for two consecutive days and hope that the trend continues lower.

It is possible that Italy's total deaths could match or even surpass the number of deaths during the 2016/2017 flu season when Italy reportedly suffered 24,981 deaths according to a report issued by the International Journal of Infections Diseases or IJID for short.
Governments in Canada and around the world are mainting current protocols of social distancing, 14 day isolation for both travelers and anyone displaying symptoms as well as a travel restrictions and other measures.

While coronavirus is not as well understood as seasonal influenza it is said to be more easily transmissible than the flu.
While most will experience only mild symptoms or be completely asymptomatic, there is a particular danger for the elderly and those with compromised immunity from conditions like Diabetes, Cardiovascular Disease and Hypertension.

 

[Billyd]

I think some here need a course in statistical modeling. You're lucky, I'm not going to give you one. I am going to give you an example to look at.

The hurricane prediction center uses several different models to predict the path of hurricanes. Days out, the point of landfall predictions are all over the place, and the paths to make landfall is constantly being readjusted. The predictions carry with them a cone of uncertainty. It is that cone that we must use to prepare. Notice how much the cone changes as the hurricane gets closer to us. Also notice how the paths predicted by the different models get closer together. Also notice that there is usually one or two that predict a path far away from the others. None of the models are perfect, but they are the best indicator of the preparation necessary to weather the storm.

The models used by the CDC and others allow us to prepare the impact. As the data increases, the models improve, and the cone of uncertainty gets smaller. With covid19, we have much more data than we had a month ago, and the models are beginning to merge together, but we still have to plan for the uncertainty. Two weeks from now, we will have much more data, and the accuracy of that data will have improved drastically.

Pause and take a deep breath. Jesus is still at the right hand of God making intercession for us. He will get us through this storm, just as He has so many times before.

 

[EleventhHour]

This is an example of how I believe the media should be reporting on coronavirus, from a Canadian's perspective:

UPDATE on the CoronaVirus Pandemic in Italy

Italys total deaths from the novel coronavirus has now reached 10,800 and will soon surpass 11,000. Experts are encouraged that the number of deaths has dropped in the hardest hit European nation for two consecutive days and hope that the trend continues lower.

It is possible that Italy's total deaths could match or even surpass the number of deaths during the 2016/2017 flu season when Italy reportedly suffered 24,981 deaths according to a report issued by the International Journal of Infections Diseases or IJID for short.
Governments in Canada and around the world are mainting current protocols of social distancing, 14 day isolation for both travelers and anyone displaying symptoms as well as a travel restrictions and other measures.

While coronavirus is not as well understood as seasonal influenza it is said to be more easily transmissible than the flu.
While most will experience only mild symptoms or be completely asymptomatic, there is a particular danger for the elderly and those with compromised immunity from conditions like Diabetes, Cardiovascular Disease and Hypertension.

That would be better than the left and the right media.

 

[JamOn]

the US govt has been a big failure from the time of when free citizens of the US started assasinating their own presidents. Your enemy is in your own country. Im sorry to tell you that.

This is more about a grudge you have against America, you picked a fine time to hold a grudge with all that is going on.

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

I think some here need a course in statistical modeling. You're lucky, I'm not going to give you one. I am going to give you an example to look at.

The hurricane prediction center uses several different models to predict the path of hurricanes. Days out, the point of landfall predictions are all over the place, and the paths to make landfall is constantly being readjusted. The predictions carry with them a cone of uncertainty. It is that cone that we must use to prepare. Notice how much the cone changes as the hurricane gets closer to us. Also notice how the paths predicted by the different models get closer together. Also notice that there is usually one or two that predict a path far away from the others. None of the models are perfect, but they are the best indicator of the preparation necessary to weather the storm.

The models used by the CDC and others allow us to prepare the impact. As the data increases, the models improve, and the cone of uncertainty gets smaller. With covid19, we have much more data than we had a month ago, and the models are beginning to merge together, but we still have to plan for the uncertainty. Two weeks from now, we will have much more data, and the accuracy of that data will have improved drastically.

Pause and take a deep breath. Jesus is still at the right hand of God making intercession for us. He will get us through this storm, just as He has so many times before.

That hurricane example is excellent, thank you....I think most everyone has seen a forecast like you describe. Typically there's a wide band showing the range...and the reporters stress how 'this is based strictly on modelling and can change day to day, hour to hour'. I've never seen a weather forecast where the announcer said "we're certain" or even 99% sure.

Contrast that with the coronavirus, where we were told that covid-19 was "at least" 10x more deadly than the seasonal flu. Stated with certainty and conviction. And because it was at least 10x more deadly than the flu the United States could anticipate at least 1.1 million deaths to over 2 million depending on mitigation efforts and their success....best case scenario was 1.1 million.

I don't think anyone is expecting deaths to reach those levels now....Dr Fauci has seriously dialed it back saying deaths "could" reach 100 to 200K. Hopefully even that prediction is way off the mark and the actual death toll is no worse than the seasonal flu....I'm praying that's the case.

 

[Smoke]

Its Dr. Fausci (sp?) himself who has invited comparisons with the seasonal flu by claiming that Coronavirus is at least 10x more lethal. For that to be accurate it would mean 10x more deaths from covid-19 than from the flu. So far in the United States the CDC estimates that there have been between 24,000 to 62,000 deaths during this 2019/2020 flu season.

One note though, this is not exactly an apples to apples comparison because the flu season starts on Oct 1st and lasts between 22 to 27 weeks. So while there is about 6 months worth of flu data, the covid-19 data only started being collected at the end of January, about 9 weeks worth in other words.

I want to add that I am complying with all the social distancing and other protocols being mandated....regardless of my opinion on whether or not this is an over reaction, these efforts along with frequent hand washing and all the rest, they will at least slow the spread of both coronavirus and influenza....and both are deadly diseases, in particular for the elderly and/or immune comprimised.

If you know someone who is elderly, and/or those with conditions like Diabetes, Cancer, Hypertension....help them out, in my opinion they should be house bound until this pandemic is over.

I'm not defending whoever claimed that the Coronavirus is at least 10x more lethal than the regular flu, however, consider that the government has essentially shut down a huge percentage of our economy in an effort to curb the spread of the virus and to my knowledge, this has never been done for the regular flu.

In essence, you're using current death rates of Corona without considering the variable of outside interference (the government shutting the economy down along with social distancing, etc...) and comparing it to the regular flu to say that it's a bogus claim.

We would have to build a flux capacitor to travel back in time and treat the Coronavirus the same as the regular flu (which is essentially do nothing) to validate OR debunk the claim that it's 10x more lethal than the regular flu.

 

[Smoke]

I'm not a medical health expert, but just considering the fact the Coronavirus has such an extensive incubation period, in comparison to the seasonal flu, I naturally conclude this would be more lethal in that the transmission of the virus would spread at an exponential rate in comparison to the seasonal flu.

Also, we should distinguish between "death rate" versus "total deaths". They are NOT synonymous. I'll explain in a hypothetical scenario...

10,000,000 Americans get the seasonal flu, of which 100,000 Americans die as a result. Death rate = 1%

100,000,000 Americans get the Coronavirus, of which 1,000,000 Americans die as a result. Death rate = 1%

While the death rate is equal at 1% for their respective virus, the Americans infected with the Coronavirus was 10x more lethal in terms of total casualties.

Once again, this is a hypothetical scenario with easy figures to prove a point. I'm not implying these numbers are real.