The Greatest depression is coming, are you ready?
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Let's put these numbers into context. The Deficit as a result of WW2 brought our total debt to about the same as our GDP right after the war.
Today our GDP is 22 trillion and our debt is 34 trillion. So our debt now is significantly greater than it was after WW2, relatively speaking.
The second problem we have now is that as a result of WW2 the US got the reserve currency, that was a great prize. We have run up this tremendous debt without any prize. If you look at this chart he says we were fiscally responsible till the middle of the 1970s, in other words as long a we were on the gold standard we were fiscally responsible, once we got off it everything headed downhill fast. Once we were off the gold standard it opened the door to the liars and cheats to print money and rob tax payers.
Today our GDP is 22 trillion and our debt is 34 trillion. So our debt now is significantly greater than it was after WW2, relatively speaking.
The second problem we have now is that as a result of WW2 the US got the reserve currency, that was a great prize. We have run up this tremendous debt without any prize. If you look at this chart he says we were fiscally responsible till the middle of the 1970s, in other words as long a we were on the gold standard we were fiscally responsible, once we got off it everything headed downhill fast. Once we were off the gold standard it opened the door to the liars and cheats to print money and rob tax payers.
Doom Loop
So let's talk about the "doom loop". This year the US will have to refinance $10 trillion in debt. They were probably paying 2-3% less on that debt. That means the added interest could add $300 billion to our budget. However, that is if we can keep interest rates where they are now. Imagine if they were to only go up 1%, that would be $400 billion more that we would have to pay and finance. Also, the reason we have banks going belly up is because the interest rate has risen and when they have to cash in their bonds they have to book losses. If interest rates were to go up just 1% it could easily result in more banks going bankrupt.
I think we are seeing businesses enter this same thing, but with AI. In other words they have to adopt technology to cut their labor budget so they can stay competitive. But when they and all the other businesses lay off tens of thousands of people it impacts the entire economy, reducing demand so that the only way to stay competitive is lay off more people and adopt more technology.
China has already taken this doom loop to the extreme, but now it will spread globally as AI and machines and robots can replace more and more jobs.
So let's talk about the "doom loop". This year the US will have to refinance $10 trillion in debt. They were probably paying 2-3% less on that debt. That means the added interest could add $300 billion to our budget. However, that is if we can keep interest rates where they are now. Imagine if they were to only go up 1%, that would be $400 billion more that we would have to pay and finance. Also, the reason we have banks going belly up is because the interest rate has risen and when they have to cash in their bonds they have to book losses. If interest rates were to go up just 1% it could easily result in more banks going bankrupt.
I think we are seeing businesses enter this same thing, but with AI. In other words they have to adopt technology to cut their labor budget so they can stay competitive. But when they and all the other businesses lay off tens of thousands of people it impacts the entire economy, reducing demand so that the only way to stay competitive is lay off more people and adopt more technology.
China has already taken this doom loop to the extreme, but now it will spread globally as AI and machines and robots can replace more and more jobs.
The total amount of assets lost by banks in 2023, even adjusted for inflation, is greater than the global financial crisis of 2008. The measures the Fed took to stabilize the banks expires on March 11th of 2024.
Also, in 2008 you did not have Evergrande and many other bank failures in China. This time at the same time we have GFC 2.0 we also have a collapse in China, Japan and Germany.
Also, in 2008 you did not have Evergrande and many other bank failures in China. This time at the same time we have GFC 2.0 we also have a collapse in China, Japan and Germany.
Stunning Numbers Released Along With CPI Print, Rate Cut Odds Plummet
The rate of inflation can be down from the peak, but that doesn't mean prices are down, it means they have risen less in the last 12 months than how much they rose in the year before that. If you are driving a car and increase in speed from 0 to 60 in the the first five minutes and then increase from 60 to 80 in the next five minutes it doesn't mean you are going slower, only that your rate of increase is less.
The rate of inflation can be down from the peak, but that doesn't mean prices are down, it means they have risen less in the last 12 months than how much they rose in the year before that. If you are driving a car and increase in speed from 0 to 60 in the the first five minutes and then increase from 60 to 80 in the next five minutes it doesn't mean you are going slower, only that your rate of increase is less.
Good news on the inflationary front
Yes, as long as the US is running deficits we will have inflationary pressure in the US. However, there are ways to mitigate that.
1. China has admitted they are in deflation, so decreased demand from China will help alleviate inflation.
2. Japan has admitted they are in recession. Same thing, decreased world demand for goods and services helps alleviate the worldwide inflation.
3. Layoffs will also alleviate the pressure for inflation. Especially now that we have AI which can replace a major portion of the workforce.
4. As bankruptcies skyrocket you will have foreclosures and bank sales at bargain discount prices, again bringing down the inflationary pressure. And by selling repos instead of new or used cars we will have more layoffs and more deflationary pressure.
However, as layoffs impact a significant percentage of taxpayers tax revenue for the government will shrink which will cause the deficit to grow and so add to the inflationary pressure which can only be solved by more layoffs. It should be obvious that we are looking at a short term fix, the only long term fix is war and to the winner goes the spoils.
Yes, as long as the US is running deficits we will have inflationary pressure in the US. However, there are ways to mitigate that.
1. China has admitted they are in deflation, so decreased demand from China will help alleviate inflation.
2. Japan has admitted they are in recession. Same thing, decreased world demand for goods and services helps alleviate the worldwide inflation.
3. Layoffs will also alleviate the pressure for inflation. Especially now that we have AI which can replace a major portion of the workforce.
4. As bankruptcies skyrocket you will have foreclosures and bank sales at bargain discount prices, again bringing down the inflationary pressure. And by selling repos instead of new or used cars we will have more layoffs and more deflationary pressure.
However, as layoffs impact a significant percentage of taxpayers tax revenue for the government will shrink which will cause the deficit to grow and so add to the inflationary pressure which can only be solved by more layoffs. It should be obvious that we are looking at a short term fix, the only long term fix is war and to the winner goes the spoils.
Is this the next bank to go belly up?
Embattled New York Community Bancorp gets $1 billion cash infusion, adds Steven Mnuchin to its board
https://apnews.com/article/nycb-new-york-community-bancorp-07861ea23c054111d784752480423954
The stock drops 80%, these guys come in and basically buy up the stock at $2 a share and so the price goes up 7.5%. Imagine the stock was $10 a share, dropped to $2 a share and then went up to $2.15 a share.
After the $355 million judgment against Trump, the Truckers saying they will boycott, the real estate investors calling NY a loser state, $1 trillion in investment leaving, all the hedge funds leaving, after all that imagine this bank goes bankrupt. That judgment against Trump will be seen like the Jenga piece that when it was pulled the whole tower came down.
Embattled New York Community Bancorp gets $1 billion cash infusion, adds Steven Mnuchin to its board
https://apnews.com/article/nycb-new-york-community-bancorp-07861ea23c054111d784752480423954
The stock drops 80%, these guys come in and basically buy up the stock at $2 a share and so the price goes up 7.5%. Imagine the stock was $10 a share, dropped to $2 a share and then went up to $2.15 a share.
After the $355 million judgment against Trump, the Truckers saying they will boycott, the real estate investors calling NY a loser state, $1 trillion in investment leaving, all the hedge funds leaving, after all that imagine this bank goes bankrupt. That judgment against Trump will be seen like the Jenga piece that when it was pulled the whole tower came down.