The Greatest depression is coming, are you ready?

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ZNP

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If we use Gold as a constant standard of value the US dollar has lost a third of its buying power since June 2020.

I find that interesting because there were several dreams that came out at that time saying that they saw the US dollar with a third ripped off after which it drops dramatically and they see what looks like a great depression.
 

ZNP

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So strange, massive loss of businesses to Illinois, California and NY. I wonder what the reason could be?

 

ZNP

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Minutes Ago! The Sudden & Swift Collapse Of The Dollar Was just Set in Motion


Major escalation in Mideast between Iran and Israel will certainly have an impact on oil prices. Central banks of various countries are fleeing to gold.
 

ZNP

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Amazon Just Crushed 100,000 Jobs...
 

ZNP

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What Putin and China just did will CRUSH the U.S. Dollar, pay attention! | Morris Invest

 

ZNP

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Do you know why the S&P 500 is up almost 50% in two years?

People need to understand there are two things that drive the market upwards, one is demand for goods, the other is savings on costs. Demand for goods is down, that is a worldwide phenomenon. So that is not the driver, the driver is that costs are down. What costs? We have already factored in the savings from computerization and the internet. No, these savings are from Machine learning, Smart apps, robots, Language models, 3d printers and AI. All of these savings are from replacing workers.

Amazon.com announced they were laying off 100,000 employees, 25% of their workforce and replacing them with robots and AI. That is a huge savings.

There is a problem with this kind of "growth". As you cut your costs you are also going to shrink your market. Unemployed workers will not be big consumers.

The second thing we need to realize is that if you compare the performance of gold with the S&P 500 over the last five years it is equal. What you and I see as growth is really just inflation. But what happens when the economy collapses (Commercial real estate will collapse, banks will go bankrupt, interest rates will have to spike -- and war only exacerbates all these issues). Gold doesn't stop being gold, but when a company goes bankrupt the stock becomes worthless as leaves falling from a tree.
 

ZNP

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The dollar buys 44% of the gold it could buy in October of 2015.

I use that as a measure of how much the dollar has declined in value with gold as a standard measure of value.
 

Billyd

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Panic buying of gold is the single most inflationary driver in the world today. If all the money bags get off their high horses, and put their money back into the economy, gold prices would drop like lead, and inflation would return to near zero.

The common folks aren't worried about how much gold their dollars will buy. They are concerned about what and how much food their dollars will buy.
 

ZNP

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Listen to this, there is 13-15 kg of silver in the tip of each Patriot missile. By exhausting our missiles and making the US and Israel and Britain and Poland and Ukraine buy up many more missiles they are forcing them to buy up silver. That means they are buying up about $14,000 worth of silver with each missile they make. This is why the banks shorted silver to keep weapons cheap, and we should look at these events in Ukraine and the Middle East as a short squeeze.

What we should realize is that silver could easily rise to half the price of gold. They desperately need one or the other for AI and missiles.

 

ZNP

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The Logarithmic Decay of the Dollar.

 

ZNP

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Let's break this down for you in simple terms.

1. The US dollar is the reserve currency, this allows us to print money, which corrupt politicians and the oligarchs that are the puppetmasters love.

2. In order to be the reserve currency we have to provide security to the middle East and their oil. This is why they manipulate the silver market to keep silver much cheaper than it should be. They need it to make weapons and so you lose money on silver but you make a bundle on war.

3. The rest of the world hates the US hegemony and abusive practices, but they realize that silver is ridiculously cheap so they pick up gold and silver on sale and they bide their time.

4. Little by little the US debt grows, interest payments grow and BRICS is able to accumulate enough gold to have a gold backed currency to replace the US dollar.

5. However, it doesn't look like they have enough because gold and silver are ridiculously cheap. Due to the biggest banks shorting billions of dollars worth of silver and the price of silver controlled by derivatives on paper. No one wants to actually hold physical silver, they simply trade it on paper.

6. But the war is changing that. It isn't about seizing land or killing people, it is about using up weapons so that the US has to make more. They have close to 15 kg of silver in each missile and that means they must take the physical silver. This will cause a short squeeze. If they deplete the Comex the price has to go up, if that happens the banks holding the short positions will have to close them out and so you will see them buying billions of dollars worth of silver at a time when there are no sellers. That is what will cause the collapse of the West's banking system and the collapse of the US dollar.
 

ZNP

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Everyone is asking the wrong question.

People are comparing the collapse of the US dollar to going over the edge of a giant waterfall, they want to know when we are at the edge. That is the wrong place to be focused on.

Imagine you are in a canoe, upstream you can paddle around without any difficulty, but as you get closer and closer to the falls the current gets stronger and stronger. The question you should be asking is where is the point of no return, the point at which you can no longer paddle against the current and will now be guaranteed to be swept over the falls.

So look at the US congress, there are people who have said we cannot continue to do what we are doing and they are trying as hard as they can to turn the canoe around yet it is obvious that both Democrats and RINos are unable to paddle against the current. You can see that the current is flowing faster than ever before (the rate at which our debt is increasing). You can see that foreign countries are no longer willing to buy 10 year treasuries. Already we have to refinance a third of our $34 trillion debt this year, and since they are doing that in bonds with a maturity of a year or six months you can see that next year it will be much more than a third of our debt, maybe two thirds of our debt! If our deficit or debt did not increase this year it would tell you they are fighting hard against that current, but instead the deficit increased by $1.5 trillion and already they want to add another $2 trillion to that. So this canoe is clearly being swept down towards the collapse much faster than even a year ago. You can also see that the only thing providing growth to the US economy is this deficit spending. If that were to stop we would be in a depression. You can also see that inflation has gone up 18% whereas gold is still gold. So you know that anyone seeking safety will be buying gold instead of bonds.

Now consider this, we would have to cut our budget by $2 trillion to actually make headway. This year the budget was $6 trillion, if you cut it by 2 you would have $4 trillion to spend and almost $3 trillion is debt and social security. So in reality you would have to cut your discretionary spending from $3 trillion to $1 trillion. Are they doing that or are they already trying to get another $2 trillion to spend? How do you cut your budget when you are going to war?

They would have to fire just about everyone in the federal government. Are they doing that or are they hiring more IRS agents and weaponizing the DOJ and trying to seize assets through lawfare?
 

ZNP

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If you look at the DXY the US dollar has increased relative to a basket of other fiat currencies from 80 to 100 since 2011. So if you think inflation is tough in the US, think about all these other currencies where their money has decreased relative to the US dollar by about 25%. So that 18% inflation you have heard about is much less than the rest of the West.

Now consider this, who buys US treasuries, our allies or our enemies? Obviously it is our allies, if they have just lost 25% purchasing power relative to the US dollar can they continue to buy up our ever increasing debt?

Also, consider this, we used to sell 10yr treasuries, but now we are selling 1yr, 2yr, and even shorter duration. As a result we aren't refinancing 10% of our 34.5 trillion debt each year, it is now close to 33%. So in 2011 the US had a national debt of $14 trillion and they had to finance about 10% of that each year, or $1.4 trillion. Now in 2024 we have to finance about $10.5 trillion in addition to the $2 trillion in deficit spending. Who is buying it? They have lost 25% of their buying power relative to the US dollar in the same time frame.

If you look at Brazil prices have gone up 100% relative to the US dollar since 2011. However, the dollar has gone up 3x relative to Brazil's currency. So for the vast majority of Brazilians they are much poorer today than in 2011, but for those few rich people keeping their wealth in US dollars their net purchasing power has increased. In most countries the dollar has increased in value relative to their currency at a greater rate than inflation.

So for countries like Brazil it makes sense to store your wealth in treasuries because it is increasing in value relative to your local currency, it is increasing your purchasing power and you get 5% on top of all that. However, gold has increased by about 65% since 2011 and that is in US dollars. So that is close to a 5% annual rate of return, like treasuries, but without the risk of the US default and losing all its value.

Obviously you can't just use gold coins in most retail transactions, but if a bank were holding their wealth in gold they could exchange that for the local currency at any time that it is needed. Yes, a local currency is far more convenient, but far less reliable. Germany, Venezuela, Argentina, and many other countries have seen the collapse of their currency at some time in their history. But gold and silver have stood the test of time. Especially now that US debt is so high.

So go back to our example of Brazil, they have joined BRICS. It isn't because gold is doing better than the US dollar, for them the two are comparable. For most countries Gold is doing better, but even if gold is giving you the same return as the US dollar you don't have to worry about the US government seizing your assets like they are threatening to do to Russia. Nor do you have to worry about US printing money to pay off their debts.
 

ZNP

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A quick and easy solution from the past

Good news, there is a quick and easy solution to the whole debt crisis in the US. The total debt per taxpayer is $266,951. Many tax payers have that much money in equity in their home. Granted, not all taxpayers, but many do. Simply take their home, retirement account, bank account and any assets they have to pay off that 266k. Now you may say that will only be about half because a whole lot of taxpayers aren't worth that much. But most of those taxpayers are young, they can fight in a war. In human history you sell them as slaves to the army. Let's say the going rate is 40k a year, if you have nothing then that would be a six year service, if you had 100k it would be a four year service. Also, if your parents or family members were wealthy they could buy a few years for you.

But even with this we probably don't pay off the entire debt, but so what, if we could knock it down to 5-6 trillion the US would be back on solid financial ground again.

Now you may think that Americans will never go for this. I get that. But what about the Chinese and the Russians? I suspect the plan from those who are looking to invade, to the victors go the spoils.
 

ZNP

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ZNP

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Industrial demand for silver was up 11% in 2023. But the demand will be even greater in 2024. They are pumping huge amounts of money into AI because if they simply make bigger computers the AI becomes more powerful. As fortune 500 companies across the globe adopt AI they will be using a lot of silver. Also, these missile you see them shooting in the Middle East, Ukraine and Russia all are filled with silver by the Kg. The reason silver is ridiculously cheap is because banks were shorting it. They were willing to take a loss on silver in order to keep electronics, computers and the war machine operating as that was where their profit was. Historically silver should be a fifteenth of the price of gold. That would put silver at $160 an ounce right now instead of $30. This means we have a short squeeze on the banks and when they are forced to buy back the silver to close that account they will go bust. They have shorted 800 million ounces, so when they are forced to buy that back they will have to sell their bonds (at a loss) to get the cash to cover their short position (also at a loss). This could cause massive bankruptcies in the west which would send gold higher as BRICS could become the reserve currency. Many in the field estimate that Gold will break $3,000 and could spike as high as $5,000 an ounce. That would put Silver up as high as $320 an ounce. Of course at that time the US dollar would be worthless so measuring value in dollars would no longer make sense.
 

ZNP

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Fed About to be Screwed as Treasury Demand CRATERS