Are they shooting a new apocalyptic movie in LA?
- Thread starter ZNP
- Start date
-
Christian Chat is a moderated online Christian community allowing Christians around the world to fellowship with each other in real time chat via webcam, voice, and text, with the Christian Chat app. You can also start or participate in a Bible-based discussion here in the Christian Chat Forums, where members can also share with each other their own videos, pictures, or favorite Christian music.
If you are a Christian and need encouragement and fellowship, we're here for you! If you are not a Christian but interested in knowing more about Jesus our Lord, you're also welcome! Want to know what the Bible says, and how you can apply it to your life? Join us!
To make new Christian friends now around the world, click here to join Christian Chat.
Wow!
OK, I did some simple calculations. They said that 17,000 acres have been burned. So I took the average population density of Los Angeles county per acre and multiplied by 17,000 and got 220,000 people. Now consider how many stores that would also include. Now imagine the cost of an entire city of 220,000 people being burned to the ground (and note, the fire is not over, not by a long shot). That would be like Birmingham Alabama or Scottsdale Arizona burning to the ground. Now what happens when you have 220,000 refugees? Also there must be many people impacted because the place where they worked burned to the ground.
Now remember, their estimate of 17,000 acres burned is likely to be conservative and when all is said and done it will be much worse. I have noticed this on many disasters. At the time they estimate a certain amount of damage, you go back two years later and look it up and you find that the real number was generally twice what they told you at the time. For example in 2006, one year after Hurricane Katrina they estimated 40-50 billion in monetary losses (https://rwkates.org/pdfs/a2006.03.pdf). Today if you look it up Wikipedia has $125 billion in losses.
I also looked up the average home price in Los Angeles, it is almost $1 million. This fire may wind up costing over $100 billion.
If the final result of this is double the size of what they have told us you are looking at a city the size of Atlanta or Kansas city burning to the ground.
OK, I did some simple calculations. They said that 17,000 acres have been burned. So I took the average population density of Los Angeles county per acre and multiplied by 17,000 and got 220,000 people. Now consider how many stores that would also include. Now imagine the cost of an entire city of 220,000 people being burned to the ground (and note, the fire is not over, not by a long shot). That would be like Birmingham Alabama or Scottsdale Arizona burning to the ground. Now what happens when you have 220,000 refugees? Also there must be many people impacted because the place where they worked burned to the ground.
Now remember, their estimate of 17,000 acres burned is likely to be conservative and when all is said and done it will be much worse. I have noticed this on many disasters. At the time they estimate a certain amount of damage, you go back two years later and look it up and you find that the real number was generally twice what they told you at the time. For example in 2006, one year after Hurricane Katrina they estimated 40-50 billion in monetary losses (https://rwkates.org/pdfs/a2006.03.pdf). Today if you look it up Wikipedia has $125 billion in losses.
I also looked up the average home price in Los Angeles, it is almost $1 million. This fire may wind up costing over $100 billion.
If the final result of this is double the size of what they have told us you are looking at a city the size of Atlanta or Kansas city burning to the ground.
Your numbers based on averages is waaaaaay off. The total number evacuated is half of your "average estimated" since the areas affected are extremely hilly thus the population density is low. More than likely your estimated damages might actually be low since the community of Pacific Palisades (Palisades Fire) is highly affluent with an average home price of 4.7 million.
Unfortunately, areas like Pacific Palisades and Malibu end up burning about once every 10 years but the morons that live there choose to rebuild and have it happen all over again.
I grew up not far from where the Hurst Fire is burning and always wondered when I was a kid why (between fires and mudslides) why any insurance company would cover homes in areas like that.
Unfortunately, areas like Pacific Palisades and Malibu end up burning about once every 10 years but the morons that live there choose to rebuild and have it happen all over again.
I grew up not far from where the Hurst Fire is burning and always wondered when I was a kid why (between fires and mudslides) why any insurance company would cover homes in areas like that.
They are now estimating 5,000 structures that have burned. This could be a house, a commercial building or an apartment complex. I think it is safe to say that the average cost per structure is over $1 million since the average price for a house there is $1 million. I imagine commercial real estate and apartment buildings are much more expensive. That is $5 billion worth of structures damaged as a low end. It will probably be at least one year before we have a reasonable estimate of the damage, but I'm guessing that this may rival Katrina.
I am also reading that 27,000 acres have been burned. Based on the average population density for LA county that would be where about 350,000 people live.
I am also reading that 27,000 acres have been burned. Based on the average population density for LA county that would be where about 350,000 people live.
