Not confused about Israel, but I am confused by your comments about covenants once made it cannot be modified. Why are you arguing that with me? You are preaching to the choir about that point. What does the Moab covenant and the Sinai covenant have to do with the Abrahamic covenant? Yes, they are two covenants by Moses, but that does not mean that the sign of circumcision is not part of the Abrahamic covenant. Three separate events, three different covenants.
I keep making the point that there were two distinct covenants because you have continued to insist that there is only one "Abrahamic covenant" that was made in Genesis 15 and later modified in Genesis 17. I mentioned the Moab covenant as an scriptural example to support my point that God doesn't modify covenants he makes with his people. And now you have me really confused because you are saying the Abrahamic covenant is composed of three different covenants.
As I stated before, I will address "seed" comment you stated after we can settle that the sign of circumcision is part of the Abrahamic covenant otherwise we will talk in circles and I do not want to do that,
The reason you won't address Abraham's seed in Galatians 3:16, which is fatal to your argument, is because you are trying to control the framing that establishes the two distinct covenants God made with Abraham as one covenant, ie., the "Abrahamic covenant". That terminology, which doesn't appear in scripture, is a theological construct with a theological purpose that is not valid for the reasons I've mentioned. You are trying to get me to agree with that framing as a basis for the discussion. I don't agree with your framing and have demonstrated with scripture why. Without providing clear scriptural evidence that your framing is true, rather than just providing your opinion or appeal to authority (as you did below) your arguments are just circular reasoning.
You also stated that you "understand what people have been taught and repeat as if it's the indisputable truth, but it doesn't match what scripture says." People are not just saying this based on nothing, this is backed by Jewish scholarship, Christian Old Testament scholarship, Ancient Near Eastern covenant studies, Critical scholarship, Evangelical scholarship, and Catholic scholarship. If you would like I can cite those sources. So, are you saying that you know better than all these scholarships?
The above is an appeal-to-authority logical fallacy.
You said that I did not address your position that chapter 15 and 17 are different, but I clearly did. Restating your position that 15 and 17 are different does not disprove my points I have already presented. The burden of prove is on you now to prove that what I wrote is incorrect. I also presented my argument as to why chapter 17 is not conditional, but rather an acknowledgement to receive blessings. Yes, the people of Israel must assign themselves to circumcision before receiving the blessings of the Abrahamic covenant, just like those who have a will must sign papers before receiving their inheritance. The inheritance is unconditional; hence it is already theirs, they just need to sign the papers to claim it. The same is true with the blessings of the Abrahamic covenant. Circumcision is proof that Israel is the inheritors of those blessings just as signed papers is proof that a person is the inheritor of that will.
You really haven't scripturally addressed the points I've made. You did provide excerpts from three verses, and stated your opinion about them that they showed there was only one covenant, but I refuted your conclusions by providing the full verses and explaining that they were referring to the covenant of circumcision, not the covenant of Genesis 15. I ignored your modern day example of wills because it is irrelevant to the discussion because wills are not covenants. Furthermore, circumcision was the sign that Israel was the inheritor of the blessings of the covenant of circumcision, but not the promise of the covenant of Genesis 15. Yet you keep insisting that they were the heirs without addressing Galatians 3:16 that says they weren't; Christ alone is the heir of all of the promises because he is the firstborn.
And that is the crux of the matter. God designed everything so that no man could inherit the promises apart from Christ. Circumcision was a temporary chosenness to bring Israel to Christ, who became the firstborn and heir of all of the promises (Galatians 3:16). Now for any person to inherit the promises he must do so through faith in Christ, who will apportion to each believer their lot in the resurrection (as Joshua the firstborn, Christ's type, did when he allotted the land to the tribes of Israel). But you are trying to find a loophole for Israel to enter the sheepfold some other way by claiming they are still chosen, and using your theological construct of the "Abrahamic covenant" that robs Christ of his full inheritance to do so.