Okay, so I went through your post and wanted to give you some things that I think of as far as what you've written so far.
1&2 - I can see why you would come to the conclusion you do, but think of this symbolically. Clay hasn't been hardened in a kiln yet, so its mush, its easy to mold, easy to work. That doesn't sound like Gods covenant. This is an interpretation of how strong/attributes the kingdom itself is. So for the toes, its iron mixed with clay. So, partially strong, but partially weak.
I hope you do not mind but I am going to use your post as a template to put my own thoughts forward.
We have the simple explanation given in the text itself about the Iron being strong and clay weak, but to go beyond yet and say it is Israel or it is Gods People, although it fits with the potter and clay verses in Jeremiah 18, it also runs into problems because the clay gets destroyed along with the metals. Maybe we are overthinking the clay part ?
3- There is no indication of a 10 ruler coalition nation in history. This is why most people view this as futuristic and cannot be around the time of Jesus, because Rome was a single Nation, but had between 40-50 provinces. That's far passed 10.
By comparing Daniel with the Harlot carried by the ten horned beast in Revelation, I see portrayed the Western Roman Empire in its broken and divided stage, ruled by many sovereigns, consisting of the group of kingdoms which has occupied ever since the Gothic invasions of the fifth century.
The historian Machiavel, gives the following list of the nations which occupied the territory of the Western Empire at the time of the fall of Romulus Augustulus, the last emperor of Rome. The Lombard's, the Franks, the Burgundians, the Ostrogoths, the Visigoths, the Vandals, the Heruli, the Sueves, the Huns, and the Saxons - ten in all.
The following list gives the contemporary kingdoms existing in Western Europe at intervals of a hundred years, from the ninth to the nineteenth centuries. It is from The Four Prophetic Empires, by the Rev. T. R. Birks, and is introduced by the remark that a measure of uncertainty must exist as to whether some of the states should be included, as "it is sometimes doubtful whether a kingdom can claim an independent sovereignty on account of the complex and varying nature of its political relations." Where a ? follows a name, it implies that there are some elements of doubt as to whether it should be included or not.
A.D. 860.
Italy, Provence, Lorraine, East France, West France, Exarchate, Venice, Navarre, England, Scotland. Total, 10.
A.D. 950.
Germany, Burgundy, Lombardy, Exarchate, Venice, France, England, Scotland, Navarre, Leon. Total, 10.
A.D. 1050.
Germany, Exarchate, Venice, Norman Italy, France, England, Scotland, Arragon, Castile, Normandy (?), Hungary (?). Total, 9 to 11.
A.D. II50.
Germany, Naples, Venice, France, England, Scotland, Arragon, Castile, Portugal, Hungary, Lombardy (?). Total, 10, or perhaps 11.
A.D. 1250.
Germany and Naples, Venice, Lombardy, France, England, Scotland, Arragon, Castile, Portugal, Hungary. Total, 10.
A.D. 1350.
Germany, Naples, Venice, Switzerland (?), Milan (?), Tuscany (?), France, England and Scotland, Arragon, Castile, Portugal, Hungary. Total, 9 to 12.
A.D. 1453.
Austria, Naples, Venice, France, England, Scotland, Arragon, Castile, Portugal, Hungary, Switzerland (?), Savoy (?), Milan (?), Tuscany (?). Total, 11 to 14.
A.D. 1552.
Austria, Venice, France, England, Scotland, Spain, Naples, Portugal, Hungary, Switzerland (?), Lombardy (?). Total, 9 to 11.
A.D. 1648.
Austria, Venice, France, Britain (?), Spain and Naples, Portugal, Hungary, Switzerland (?), Savoy, Tuscany, Holland. Total, 8 to 11.
A.D. 1750.
Austria and Hungary, France, Savoy and Sardinia, Venice, Tuscany, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland (?), Naples (?), Britain (?), Holland. Total, 8 to 1I.
A.D. 1816.
Austria, Bavaria, Wurtemberg (?), Naples, Tuscany, Sardinia, Lombardy (?), France, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Britain (?), Switzerland (?). Total, 9 to 13·
The submission for long centuries of this divided Empire of Rome to the power of the Papacy cannot be questioned or denied. Which I see as the little horn that arises amongst the ten in Daniel 7:8
4&5 - The stone is Jesus, which proves the 10 toes can't also be Jesus or the Church that you mention in point 2 and 5. Would Jesus bash his own people? This is also why people view this as future, the 10 king nation during the tribulation period that with Jesus's second coming, He destroys. Jesus is the stone not forged by human hands that then turns into a mountain and destroys the Anti-Christs 10 king nation at His coming.
I do believe Iron is Rome as far as the legs but when you get to the toes, I do not believe it is Rome still, but an entirely new nation of 10 sections. Because look at the previous. Babylon, Persia and Greece are different nations and in different locations. This statue represents essentially who is in charge of the world globally during certain periods of time. There hasn't necessarily been a single nation that has ruled since Rome. If Hitler won either war, then I think that could have been a prime candidate for the 10 toes.
At the start of the Roman Empire we have Jesus setting up the believers as living stones or the kingdom of God spiritually.
I see the stone that destroys all the other kingdoms as the Kingdom of God in its ultimate stage at the second coming when it is set up on Earth physically.