RAPE: Info, Statistics, and What To Do
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A
The rape statistics in this thread are not true nor is even the content being dealt with appropriately.
First of all, the thread completely ignores the rape of males by other males and sometimes, in fact, women. Secondly, the statistics are all wrong.
For example, According to the FBI "[t]he rate of forcible rapes in 2012 was estimated at 52.9 per 100,000 female inhabitants."
Assuming that all American women are uniformly at risk, this means the average American woman has a 0.0529 percent chance of being raped each year, or a 99.9471 percent chance of not being raped each year. That means the probability the average American woman is never raped over a 50-year period is 97.4 percent (0.999471 raised to the power 50).
Thus the probability that an American woman is raped in her lifetime is 2.6 percent — 5 to 100 times less than the estimates broadcast by the media and public officials.
Further exacerbating the confusion over rape statistics, the Department of Justice counts "verbal threats" as "sexual violence." The Department of Justice report, "The Sexual Victimization of College Women" — which includes as victimization "general sexist remarks [made] in front of you" (grow a thick skin, girls) — says that 48.8 percent of the women who were raped said that what happened to them was not rape, with another 4.7 percent saying they didn't know if it was rape or not. In other words, the rape researchers, and not the police, were the ones telling the purported victims, "I don't believe you."
To underscore this, I Never Called It Rape states in Chapter 4 that 42 percent of rape victims had sex again with their rapists. The National Violence against Women study says that the average female victim was raped 2.9 times in the preceding year. One infers that the "rape" victims were using a different definition of "rape" than the researchers.
Rape is a serious issue which means the inaccurate "factoids" being thrown around by ignorant people and the liberal media, presumably to draw attention to the issue, should be themselves thrown out lest a serious issue turn into a case of the little feminist who cried "wolf!"
First of all, the thread completely ignores the rape of males by other males and sometimes, in fact, women. Secondly, the statistics are all wrong.
For example, According to the FBI "[t]he rate of forcible rapes in 2012 was estimated at 52.9 per 100,000 female inhabitants."
Assuming that all American women are uniformly at risk, this means the average American woman has a 0.0529 percent chance of being raped each year, or a 99.9471 percent chance of not being raped each year. That means the probability the average American woman is never raped over a 50-year period is 97.4 percent (0.999471 raised to the power 50).
Thus the probability that an American woman is raped in her lifetime is 2.6 percent — 5 to 100 times less than the estimates broadcast by the media and public officials.
Further exacerbating the confusion over rape statistics, the Department of Justice counts "verbal threats" as "sexual violence." The Department of Justice report, "The Sexual Victimization of College Women" — which includes as victimization "general sexist remarks [made] in front of you" (grow a thick skin, girls) — says that 48.8 percent of the women who were raped said that what happened to them was not rape, with another 4.7 percent saying they didn't know if it was rape or not. In other words, the rape researchers, and not the police, were the ones telling the purported victims, "I don't believe you."
To underscore this, I Never Called It Rape states in Chapter 4 that 42 percent of rape victims had sex again with their rapists. The National Violence against Women study says that the average female victim was raped 2.9 times in the preceding year. One infers that the "rape" victims were using a different definition of "rape" than the researchers.
Rape is a serious issue which means the inaccurate "factoids" being thrown around by ignorant people and the liberal media, presumably to draw attention to the issue, should be themselves thrown out lest a serious issue turn into a case of the little feminist who cried "wolf!"
S
I don't think anyone can give you a realistic statistic for unreported crimes - at best one can extrapolate from the data available and make a guess at what the real world numbers would be.
I will say this though - the 1 in 6 number equates to 16.6 percent, and would mean that 50.88 million people are raped per year in the United States alone. Doesn't that seem a bit high?
If you assumed that the reporting was low (which it is in this case), and you assumed a really high rate of under reporting - like the number of actual crimes was 100 times higher than was actually reported, you'd still only end up at a 5.2 percent chance of forcible rape according to the FBI statistics.
There are 318 million people in the United states - 5.2 percent would be 1.976 million people raped a year.
If you pull data from the CDC they claim one percent in 2012 - or 1.3 million people. The CDC has been known to over report when the outcome is favorable, so if you wanted to err on the side of extreme caution, how low would it be?. Again if you made that number ten times higher, you'd be at ten percent. That's a truly huge number - it would mean 31.6 million people a year in the United States would be raped.
Whoever said 1 in 6 did a great disservice to the victims of rape. The crime is a horrendous one that ruins lives, but I don't see how skewing the statistics is helping the victims. That kind of over reporting hurts victims because it makes people less likely to listen to an honest report.
I will say this though - the 1 in 6 number equates to 16.6 percent, and would mean that 50.88 million people are raped per year in the United States alone. Doesn't that seem a bit high?
If you assumed that the reporting was low (which it is in this case), and you assumed a really high rate of under reporting - like the number of actual crimes was 100 times higher than was actually reported, you'd still only end up at a 5.2 percent chance of forcible rape according to the FBI statistics.
There are 318 million people in the United states - 5.2 percent would be 1.976 million people raped a year.
If you pull data from the CDC they claim one percent in 2012 - or 1.3 million people. The CDC has been known to over report when the outcome is favorable, so if you wanted to err on the side of extreme caution, how low would it be?. Again if you made that number ten times higher, you'd be at ten percent. That's a truly huge number - it would mean 31.6 million people a year in the United States would be raped.
Whoever said 1 in 6 did a great disservice to the victims of rape. The crime is a horrendous one that ruins lives, but I don't see how skewing the statistics is helping the victims. That kind of over reporting hurts victims because it makes people less likely to listen to an honest report.
A
I can give you unbiased study results but first you should read this: http://sf-criminaldefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/KaninFalseRapeAllegations.pdf
It's it involves a peer-reviewed study by Eugene Kanin on false rape allegations conducted on the files of a randomly chosen city police department in which forty-one percent of the rape allegations turned out to be false.
Yes, the study goes into some detail about the nature of the recantations and they’re both specific and plausible (e.g. “my husband is overseas and I’m afraid I’m pregnant," "I'm in a divorce and wanted full custody," etc...) noting they mostly occurred a couple of days after the report not after extended contact with “the system.”
The point being, false rape allegations are common and occur for a wide range of reasons. This "cry of wolf" where there is none also degrades public sensitivity to the seriousness of actual rape cases which are, as any actual victim knows, horrendous.
It's it involves a peer-reviewed study by Eugene Kanin on false rape allegations conducted on the files of a randomly chosen city police department in which forty-one percent of the rape allegations turned out to be false.
Yes, the study goes into some detail about the nature of the recantations and they’re both specific and plausible (e.g. “my husband is overseas and I’m afraid I’m pregnant," "I'm in a divorce and wanted full custody," etc...) noting they mostly occurred a couple of days after the report not after extended contact with “the system.”
The point being, false rape allegations are common and occur for a wide range of reasons. This "cry of wolf" where there is none also degrades public sensitivity to the seriousness of actual rape cases which are, as any actual victim knows, horrendous.