Moses peace be upon him was born naturally, so was Muhammed peace be upon him. NOT jesus peace be upon him because he was born miracle. Prophet Moses married and had children, Jesus did not marry and of course did not have any children. The ministry of Jesus, peace be upon him, lasted three years and did not see the laws of God establish in his time. Prophet Moses, peace be upon him, preached the law of God for many decades and saw in his time, the law of God established. Comparing Prophet Moses, peace be upon him, with Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessings be upon him, brings out an amazing similarity.
Muhammad's birth was natural, he was married and had children; preached the law of God for 23 years and saw in his own time God's Law established in his land.
I am married. I have children. If I live long enough, I could preach for 23 years. That doesn't make me 'the prophet like unto Moses.'
You pick some the blandest similarities that make Moses similiar to many prophets. The promise was that Yahweh would raise up a prophet like Moses from among their brethren. Stretching that to include their distant relatives the Ishamelites IF indeed Muhammad was an Ishmaelite and not an Arab from one of the other ethnic groups, is quite a stretch indeed. There is certainly nothing about this passage that would cause a 'nuetral' inquirer to associate the prophecy with Muhammad.
another important word is "brethren", if it was Jesus, the word would have been "children" because Jesus, peace be upon him, came from the children of Isaac.
A fellow Israelite is referred to as a 'brother' in various places in the Torah. I can think of an occasion where Edomites are also referred to as brothers. I know of no place where Ishamelites are referred to as 'brothers' and it is unlikely that the Israelites would have thought about the Ishmaelites when they read this. Midianites are mentioned, and genetically, they may have been about as closely related as Ishmaelites, but where are they called brethren to the Israelites?
If you are a good Muslim, though, you should believe the words written in the Gospel. We sent 'Iesa (Jesus), son of Maryam (Mary) confirming the Taurat (Torah) that had come before him, and We gave him the Injeel (Gospel), in which was guidance and light and confirmation of the Taurat (Torah) that had come before it, a guidance and an admonition for Al-Muttaqun (the pious - see V.2:2). S. 5:46 Al-Hilali & Khan; cf. S. 57:2
I know some Muslims claim the Gospel was changed. But if you do some research, you can see that the books available today were the same as were available when Muhammad was born. If you say it was not Jesus' book, then how can you say that the Al Koran was a book given through Muhammad. He did not write it down. His disciples listened to him and wrote what he said. The current version was collected from various people and codified into smaller books by Muhammad's friend and father-in-law, Abu Bakr, wasn't it? It is also comprised for smaller books. The four Gospels are smaller books recorded by Jesus' disciples. If you are a good Muslim, you should believe what is written in the Gospels.
Jesus said,
Jesus answered, "I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me."
(NIV)