Trump is winning

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M

Mitspa

Guest
#41
i am saying not to trust -one- poll very much because it has a bad track record...

you are saying not to trust -nine- polls at all because they aren't telling you what you want to hear...
I'm say the left control all these media outlets for the most part .. The MSM is openly and clearly pro-Hillary ..while they claim to be "fair" why would anyone trust these leftist to be honest in their polling? When in fact they have be caught cheating this very week?
 

Desdichado

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2014
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#42
To be fair, the RCP average did accurately predict Trump's triumph in the primaries.

There were few if any major upsets.
 
Feb 28, 2016
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#43
for us, my wife and myself,

we put our total TRUST/LIFE in Jesus Christ, we're THERE...!!!!
 
M

Mitspa

Guest
#44
To be fair, the RCP average did accurately predict Trump's triumph in the primaries.

There were few if any major upsets.
Big difference when liberal pollsters are watching a election between Republicans and when they begin to try to defend their liberal leaders like Hillary ...The idea is to shape a perception that Trump cant win ..Hillary is way ahead. Its helps them change the subject from Hillarys corruption and even try to throw the Republican nomination back into doubt. They have been caught this very week cheating the polls toward Hillary.
 
J

jennymae

Guest
#46
It don't matter no more. The candidates are equally bad. They could might as well throw the Governor of Alabama into the race...
 
M

Mitspa

Guest
#47
It don't matter no more. The candidates are equally bad. They could might as well throw the Governor of Alabama into the race...
That's hillarys only chance..to try and make people believe Trump is as bad as she is... Not even close
 

Sirk

Banned
Mar 2, 2016
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#48
It don't matter no more. The candidates are equally bad. They could might as well throw the Governor of Alabama into the race...
The real racist running in this race is cankles.
 
Oct 16, 2015
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#50
I do. Fox predicted a "landslide" win for Romney which was the most laughable thing I ever saw in my life.

There when the Nate Silver poll came out their numbers changed to a far smaller margin. In the end, the USA and the world won out with President Obama in the White House.

Nobody predicted a landslide victory for Romney. You made that up.

If you ran for president as a democrat, you would likely win over 250 electoral votes. That is why there is never a landslide, especially for republicans. Republicans will never win California or New York or most of the northeastern states or Oregon or Washington. You must have seen the red and blue state maps. Some states are always going to support the democrat, no matter how awful they may be. Some states will always support the republican candidate, whether it's Romney or Trump. Swing states are balanced enough to go red in one election and then go blue in the next election. That is changing to some degree with the huge growth in the Hispanic population. The majority of them vote for democrats. They will help Hillary win Florida and Ohio. In the coming years, democrats will win in Arizona and even in Texas, mostly because of Hispanics registering to vote in record numbers. I doubt republicans will ever win the White House again.

Not that a President should be blamed or applauded for what happens while he is in office, I think any intelligent person would admit that the country is a mess these past 8 years. Growth in GDP is the worst is has been since the depression. Unemployed people have given up looking for work and the result is the lowest work force participation rate in many decades. Our enemies have no fear of a feckless commander-in-chief, and attack us at will. We have no solid allies. The borders are essentially open. The only people who should be celebrating this administration are pot smokers, who love the fact the feds have decided not to enforce drug laws. Your comments are totally void of fact and reason.
 

Desdichado

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2014
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#51
Nobody predicted a landslide victory for Romney. You made that up.

If you ran for president as a democrat, you would likely win over 250 electoral votes. That is why there is never a landslide, especially for republicans. Republicans will never win California or New York or most of the northeastern states or Oregon or Washington. You must have seen the red and blue state maps. Some states are always going to support the democrat, no matter how awful they may be. Some states will always support the republican candidate, whether it's Romney or Trump. Swing states are balanced enough to go red in one election and then go blue in the next election. That is changing to some degree with the huge growth in the Hispanic population. The majority of them vote for democrats. They will help Hillary win Florida and Ohio. In the coming years, democrats will win in Arizona and even in Texas, mostly because of Hispanics registering to vote in record numbers. I doubt republicans will ever win the White House again.

Not that a President should be blamed or applauded for what happens while he is in office, I think any intelligent person would admit that the country is a mess these past 8 years. Growth in GDP is the worst is has been since the depression. Unemployed people have given up looking for work and the result is the lowest work force participation rate in many decades. Our enemies have no fear of a feckless commander-in-chief, and attack us at will. We have no solid allies. The borders are essentially open. The only people who should be celebrating this administration are pot smokers, who love the fact the feds have decided not to enforce drug laws. Your comments are totally void of fact and reason.
Dick Morris predicted a Red Tide. He was all over Fox back in the day.
 

Sirk

Banned
Mar 2, 2016
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#52
Dick Morris predicted a Red Tide. He was all over Fox back in the day.
It's all about turnout. And right now likely democrats are down over 20% while republicans are up over 60%.
 

Desdichado

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2014
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#53
It's all about turnout. And right now likely democrats are down over 20% while republicans are up over 60%.
Well back then I think it was about timing and the "October surprise." Were the election held in early November right after debate numero uno, I think we would be discussing the reelection of President Mitt Romney vs. Democrat X.
 

Desdichado

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2014
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#54
Turnout models are a huge deal, though. What I know is that the Democrats have a leg-up on the ground game as they've had since 2008. JosephDreams' post was extremely disheartening for me.

I cannot tell you who has the raw advantage, however. Not without more thinking and more research. The electorate that shows up for Trump will have to be different than previous "Republican" models. Hillary has to hold the ground on a shrinking enfranchisement on the hard-left side of things.

I suppose a new blog post is in order.
 

Desdichado

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2014
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#55
This year I wonder though if higher turnout will, in a bass-ackward fashion, favor the Republican. It would be an interesting reversal in trends.
 

Billyd

Senior Member
May 8, 2014
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#56
Well back then I think it was about timing and the "October surprise." Were the election held in early November right after debate numero uno, I think we would be discussing the reelection of President Mitt Romney vs. Democrat X.
The Democrats have the best get out to vote game. They will bus everyone that they can scrounge up to the polls. Many minority churches will hold a service Tuesday morning, and will bus their congregations to the polls. Right now I don't see any get out to vote effort on that scale. Many Republicans that I know say that they will probably sit this election out. Every Democrat I know plans to vote, and only a few are going to vote for Trump. I still see Romney's 47% die hard Democrats as Trump's major obstacle.
 

Desdichado

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2014
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#57
The Democrats have the best get out to vote game. They will bus everyone that they can scrounge up to the polls. Many minority churches will hold a service Tuesday morning, and will bus their congregations to the polls. Right now I don't see any get out to vote effort on that scale. Many Republicans that I know say that they will probably sit this election out. Every Democrat I know plans to vote, and only a few are going to vote for Trump. I still see Romney's 47% die hard Democrats as Trump's major obstacle.
Republicans are actually better about he kitschy, election day stuff. We're really bad at voter registration and EV/AB which are both over half the battle in grassroots.

You are correct in viewing get-out-the-vote as supplementary. What matters more is determining your target demographics and mobilizing them enmasse.
 

Desdichado

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2014
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#58
i.e. giving them a reason to actually vote. I don't know where Trump is to that end. All the evidence I have seen is anecdotal and subject to change.

One day it looks bad for him, the next it looks pretty good. I hope his people are working on some sort of late-October Manhattan Project.
 

Desdichado

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2014
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#59
Plenty more game to be played, ladies and gents. I wouldn't place any bets given how accurate the dinosaur media/polling industry is.

I've out-foxed them myself a couple of times. It's fun.