Massive fires in the Northwest of the US.
- Thread starter ZNP
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Los Angeles Wildfire Explodes | Bouquet Fire Burns 1,000+ Acres & Forces Evacuations
9 million acres burned, or 90% of the altime record
The 2026 wildfire season has significantly outpaced recent historical benchmarks for both total acreage destroyed and the frequency of fire ignitions.
According to data compiled by the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC) as of October 5, 2026, the current metrics stack up against the official 10-year historical average (2016–2025) as follows: [1]
| Metric | 2026 Year-to-Date | 10-Year Historical Average (YTD) | Percentage of Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acres Burned | 9,007,052 | 6,116,884 | 147% |
| Number of Fires | 62,982 | 46,976 | 134% |
- A Hard-Hit Season: Total acreage burned is currently running 47% higher than what is typically expected by early October. [1]
- Increased Ignitions: The absolute number of wildland fire starts is 34% above the 10-year norm, fueled in part by an exceptionally warm and dry start to the year across many Western states. [1, 2]
- Historical Context: While total acreage has already blown past the full-year totals of both 2025 (5.1 million acres) and 2024 (8.9 million acres), it still sits just below the modern record-holding peak years of 2015 (10.12 million acres) and 2020 (10.12 million acres). [1, 2]
We have three months left in this year, and with this being a "super El Nino" year we can anticipate that we may have more significant fires.
2026–2027 historic Super El Niño—which NOAA forecasters expect to peak between October and December—is severely altering weather anomalies and shifting wildfire risk zones. [1, 2, 3, 4]
By altering the global jet stream, this extreme climate anomaly suppresses wildfire risks in traditionally vulnerable regions like California and the U.S. Southwest by funneling heavy precipitation over them. However, it simultaneously creates high-risk pockets of severe warmth and dryness elsewhere. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The primary domestic and global areas facing elevated fire risks over the next three months include:
United States Risk Zones
- The U.S. Northern Tier and Ohio Valley:
The classic Super El Niño storm track pushes moisture far south, leaving a northern corridor notably warm and dry. The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) highlights elevated significant fire potential for northeast Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and western Upper Michigan. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] - Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley: While the Southern Plains will eventually trend wetter as winter takes hold, October brings a temporary, critical fire risk window across north/east Texas, western Oklahoma, and parts of Kentucky and Tennessee due to lingering dry vegetation paired with delayed autumn freezes. [1, 2, 3]
- U.S. Caribbean Territories: Both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are forecasted to maintain above-normal fire potential consistently through October, November, and December due to El Niño-induced tropical drought conditions. [1]