Media failing us again, sensationalizing Covid-19

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Aug 10, 2019
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Sweden's numbers of dead are surpassing Australia, Canada, Norway, Austria and on and on...

They are not really doing that well.
Obviously Sweden and Norway (best two to compare I think, similar geographically) are taking divergently different approaches. Norway is trying to flatten the curve, while Sweden is not. I see it as being akin to ripping off the band-aid fast, (Sweden) or taking it off slowly (Norway).

As such it is logical to assume that Sweden's numbers will spike higher faster....while Norway should see a more spread out result. Ultimately we'll see where the death totals line up. Sweden's population is put at 10.12 million using google, while Norway is listed at 5.368 again using google.

Median age in Sweden (half younger, half older) is 41.1 which is a little older than Norway's which comes in at 39.2 years.

So Norway's population is 53% the size of Norways....so if each country's response ends up yielding similar results, for every 100 Swedish deaths from covid-19 there should be about 53 in Norway when the pandemic has run its course....Sweden's should probably be a little bit higher because their population is a little bit older...but it shouldn't be a huge difference.

The big difference, if Sweden's approach means about the same overall mortality as Norway's....is that Sweden's deaths should be shorter and more intense, with Norway's being spread out.

We shall see what the results were in another couple months I'm guessing.
 

Dude653

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Mar 19, 2011
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Took approximately three months for this virus to hit over 150 countries so yeah it's a real threat
 
Aug 10, 2019
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Took approximately three months for this virus to hit over 150 countries so yeah it's a real threat
Nobody is disputing the threat....the flu is a threat too, one that can kill over 600K people worldwide in a year.....its the response to the threat that some are questioning. Ants invading your home is a threat, that doesn't mean you burn the house down....
 

Dude653

Senior Member
Mar 19, 2011
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Nobody is disputing the threat....the flu is a threat too, one that can kill over 600K people worldwide in a year.....its the response to the threat that some are questioning. Ants invading your home is a threat, that doesn't mean you burn the house down....
The seasonal flu is nowhere near this contagious
This thing is it's spreading like wildfire
stop giving a virus new hosts and eventually it will die. That's the whole idea behind quarantine
 
Aug 10, 2019
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The seasonal flu is nowhere near this contagious
This thing is it's spreading like wildfire
stop giving a virus new hosts and eventually it will die. That's the whole idea behind quarantine
You are correct, coronavirus is more contagious, what remains to be seen is if its more deadly. Even with vaccines and so called 'herd immunity' the common flu can still kill over 600K worldwide. During the 2016/2017 flu season 24,980 Italians died according to the International Journal of Infectious diseases. Will coronavirus kill more Italians that the flu did that year? We shall see, they're coming up on 15,000 now with daily totals trending lower since March 27th when the number hit 919.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

I realize that with the way the media is reporting this, that they want people to rush to judgement. In my experience, rushed decisions are most often bad decisions....and sometimes disastorous. But turn CNN back on and be scared if you want.
 

Dude653

Senior Member
Mar 19, 2011
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You are correct, coronavirus is more contagious, what remains to be seen is if its more deadly. Even with vaccines and so called 'herd immunity' the common flu can still kill over 600K worldwide. During the 2016/2017 flu season 24,980 Italians died according to the International Journal of Infectious diseases. Will coronavirus kill more Italians that the flu did that year? We shall see, they're coming up on 15,000 now with daily totals trending lower since March 27th when the number hit 919.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

I realize that with the way the media is reporting this, that they want people to rush to judgement. In my experience, rushed decisions are most often bad decisions....and sometimes disastorous. But turn CNN back on and be scared if you want.
and that's why the virus will continue to spread because the people with the same mentality who downplay the threat
 

iamsoandso

Senior Member
Oct 6, 2011
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It's already doing that even in places where they have communism such as China. That is, even in a nation where it is being enforced by force to quarantine their numbers flattened out but still increase each day and have not gone down.
 
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and that's why the virus will continue to spread because the people with the same mentality who downplay the threat
You're correct in some parts Negan, sometimes to save people you just need a bat with barbed wire. Though there is a certain need for Rick and crew to try to keep calm and carry on and maintain some normalcy amidst the horde of walkers so that the community don't totally panic and lose itself and more people and ultimately become Survivors.

But then there were the far left hippies, that in reality we could only wish instead of screaming so loudly were just Whisperers. Either way, much the same they like you know are atheistic nature worship cultists led by the feminists that are like you know, embracing the infection.

Nah all that's just a cool Walking Dead metaphor for the outbreak cause as a it being the only TV show I can bear to watch anymore, I liked your funny meme avatar. Lol looking back at the analogy it occurs to me then that the actual reality is way worse and less cool cause the sons and daughters of Babylon are challenging eachother to lick the doorknobs and toilet seats and cough on white people in the viral trend called Coronavirus Challenge.

 
Aug 10, 2019
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and that's why the virus will continue to spread because the people with the same mentality who downplay the threat
Well...Italy's numbers are trending lower, and they still need 10,000 more deaths to make it to what would be considered a bad flu season. Actually, in Sweden their response (not locking down) is designed to let the disease spread so that 'herd immunity' can be built up....without a vaccine that's our only defense really.

Why don' t we do this every flu season to stop the spread of that virus?
 
E

EleventhHour

Guest
Well...Italy's numbers are trending lower, and they still need 10,000 more deaths to make it to what would be considered a bad flu season. Actually, in Sweden their response (not locking down) is designed to let the disease spread so that 'herd immunity' can be built up....without a vaccine that's our only defense really.

Why don' t we do this every flu season to stop the spread of that virus?
You really should not make these comparisons.

Italy has had 15 000 deaths in the space of maybe two months attributable to this virus with mitigation and containment

The regular flu season goes from October to early April.

No we do not do this to stop the seasonal flu for a very simple reason people do not walk around asymptomatic for about 10 days with the regular flu and are contagious.

Two whole different scenarios.
 
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EleventhHour

Guest
and that's why the virus will continue to spread because the people with the same mentality who downplay the threat
So much of this could have been avoided for so many different reasons.

it would seem so... Japan and South Korea having experienced several epidemics act accordingly and are prepared... basic science... viruses exist and they mutate over time and no one knows what is on the horizon.

People and politicians can't see past the next election cycle.
 
Aug 10, 2019
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You really should not make these comparisons.

Italy has had 15 000 deaths in the space of maybe two months attributable to this virus with mitigation and containment

The regular flu season goes from October to early April.

No we do not do this to stop the seasonal flu for a very simple reason people do not walk around asymptomatic for about 10 days with the regular flu and are contagious.

Two whole different scenarios.
The world's leading epidemiologists and other similar accredited experts have invited the specualtion by comparing coronavirus to the flu....we've been told that coronavirus is at least 10x more deadly than the flu, that's a comparson. Okay...I'm going to compare....my view is that, without a vaccine our only hope is herd immunity. All the detailed reporting is showing that covid-19 is overwhelming most deadly to the elderly and/or immune comprimised....we're using a sledge hammer to put in a picture nail.....you know that's my opinion already, and that I like Sweden's response....building herd immunity is going to be painful, but with out a vaccine its all we got....get it over with.
 
Jun 10, 2019
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Clicking on different nations in worldmeter gives some info about different things, I found these two day postings interesting, if the numbers are at 20 million infected death higher 60,000 still is low death rate. and they have reach RO of 1. with the lockdown a estimated 30,000 live saved.


April 4 (GMT)
  • 4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy

    The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear

    An estimated 30,000 lives have been saved as an effect of the lockdown measures, according to Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) [source] [source]
April 3 (GMT)
  • Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.

    This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

    The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

    If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
 

blue_ladybug

Senior Member
Feb 21, 2014
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Nobody is disputing the threat....the flu is a threat too, one that can kill over 600K people worldwide in a year.....its the response to the threat that some are questioning. Ants invading your home is a threat, that doesn't mean you burn the house down....
If spiders invaded my home, you bet your bippy I'd burn down the house!!
 
Jun 10, 2019
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At First I thought on 21 million cell phones accounts in China disappearing might be of censorship, never thought of deaths but it’s strange all the phone accounts being discontinued.

 
Aug 10, 2019
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Personally I'm pretty much disregarding all the numbers being reported out of China. When it comes to countries I'm watching closely like Italy, my own country of Canada, the United States, Sweden, Norway....I have a much higher degree of confidence in the reporting.

I also have benchmarks...for Italy 25,000 people died from the flu during the 2016/2017 season, that's according to the International Journal of Infectious Disease, 24,980 to be precise. In Canada our gov't agency 'Health Canada' puts yearly flu deaths in the 500 to 1,500 range....In the US its roughly 20K to 60K...Sweden and Norways I don't know yet.

Covid-19 isn't a poltically correct virus though...according to what is being reported it is very discrimanatory, especially against the old with comprimised health. I saw an interview today on Canada CBC new (Canadian Broadcasting Corproation, gov't owned media)....the interview was with the head of Geriatrics (diseases of the aged) at Toronto's Mount Sinai. He cites a nursing home in northern Ontario that has 60 residents...20 of whom died from covid-19.

We may very well find out that for most people (younger and healthy) that covid-19 is no more deadly than the flu....with young children 4 and under the flu appears to be exponentially more deadly than covid. But for elderly people with compromised health covid-19 looks to be exponentially more dangerous. While an 80 year old with Diabetes along with Kidney and Cardiovascular diseaes might have a fighting chance against the flu....against covid-19 it looks like those chances drop steeply.

Here's the interview:

 
Jun 10, 2019
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Personally I'm pretty much disregarding all the numbers being reported out of China. When it comes to countries I'm watching closely like Italy, my own country of Canada, the United States, Sweden, Norway....I have a much higher degree of confidence in the reporting.

I also have benchmarks...for Italy 25,000 people died from the flu during the 2016/2017 season, that's according to the International Journal of Infectious Disease, 24,980 to be precise. In Canada our gov't agency 'Health Canada' puts yearly flu deaths in the 500 to 1,500 range....In the US its roughly 20K to 60K...Sweden and Norways I don't know yet.

Covid-19 isn't a poltically correct virus though...according to what is being reported it is very discrimanatory, especially against the old with comprimised health. I saw an interview today on Canada CBC new (Canadian Broadcasting Corproation, gov't owned media)....the interview was with the head of Geriatrics (diseases of the aged) at Toronto's Mount Sinai. He cites a nursing home in northern Ontario that has 60 residents...20 of whom died from covid-19.

We may very well find out that for most people (younger and healthy) that covid-19 is no more deadly than the flu....with young children 4 and under the flu appears to be exponentially more deadly than covid. But for elderly people with compromised health covid-19 looks to be exponentially more dangerous. While an 80 year old with Diabetes along with Kidney and Cardiovascular diseaes might have a fighting chance against the flu....against covid-19 it looks like those chances drop steeply.

Here's the interview:

When I see these numbers don’t know what to say about stats, I think I’ll step back from wondering the numbers there’s many every day kind of boggling what goes on each day

WORLD POPULATION
7,775,848,631Current World Population
36,821,318Births this year
376,553Births today
15,458,472Deaths this year
158,086Deaths today
21,362,847Net population growth this year
218,467Net population growth today
 
Aug 10, 2019
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While I'm not completely on board with the whole "deep state" business.....and infowars is a long way from being a reputable source in my eyes....still I'm not completely dismissing the notion that this pandemic could be used to rob individuals of their personal rights and freedoms....most Germans didn't take note of the slow erosion happening right under their noses until it was too late....the price of freedom is constant vigilance....God Bless.